Daria Kasatkina and Ekaterina Alexandrova will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 9:30 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Ekaterina Alexandrova who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Ekaterina Alexandrova is the pick to win this match.
Ekaterina Alexandrova -> 1.65
Daria Kasatkina -> 2.24
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Prediction and head to head Daria Kasatkina vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova
This will be the 6th time that Daria Kasatkina and Ekaterina Alexandrova face off. The head to head is 3-2 for Kasatkina (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Kasatkina won 6-4 6-2 in the 1st round in Cincinnati back in 2024.
Highlights Daria Kasatkina vs Ekaterina Alexandrova – Cincinnati 13-August-2024
Daria Kasatkina
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11-10 | 9-8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 40-23 | 24-16 | 8-4 | 0-1 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-25 | 19-15 | 12-6 | 2-1 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-22 | 24-14 | 12-5 | 1-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-19 | 19-10 | 5-5 | 7-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, Kasatkina reached the 3rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Alycia Parks 6-2 7-5.
In the 2nd round, Kasatkina had a good straight sets win against Parks (6-2 7-5). During the match, Kasatkina scored 73 points vs Parks’s 53. The Australian was very aggressive to blast 21 winners.
Talking about the service games, Kasatkina scored just 1 ace during the encounter and she committed only 2 double faults. Daria Kasatkina lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Kasatkina put 61% of her first serves in, winning 60% (21/35) of the points behind her 1st serve and 68% (15/22) on the 2nd serve. Kasatkina broke Parks 5 times after converting 45% of her break points (5/11).
Kasatkina has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 61% of her matches (310-201). 2-1 on clay in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Kasatkina has an overall 77-44 record in the last years on clay.
The Australian has a composed 11-9 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Ekaterina Alexandrova
16 - 9win/loss
20
15
LWWLWWWLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-10 | 5-7 | 8-3 | 4-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 26-25 | 17-13 | 1-7 | 3-2 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-21 | 17-13 | 6-5 | 0-1 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-18 | 12-10 | 13-5 | 4-2 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 26-23 | 10-9 | 6-5 | 7-7 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 22, the Russian reached the 3rd round after beating Unknown Player bye and Olga Danilovic 6-3 6-4.
In the 2nd round, Alexandrova had a good straight sets win against Danilovic (6-3 6-4). During the match Alexandrova scored 67 points vs Danilovic’s 57. Alexandrova was exceptionally aggressive to blast 27 winners.
About the serving games, Alexandrova bagged 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Ekaterina Alexandrova lost the serve 3 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Alexandrova put 63% of her first serves in, winning 66% (27/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (11/24) on the 2nd serve. Ekaterina broke Danilovic 5 times after converting 56% of her break points (5/9).
Her best result of the season was conquering the title in Linz where she beat Dayana Yastremska in the final 6-2 3-6 7-5.
Alexandrova has a compiled 16-9 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kasatkina | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 20 | 19 |
| Pts | 73-53 | 67-57 |
| Total Points | 126 | 124 |
| Winners | 21 | 27 |
| %Winners | 29% | 40% |
Both Kasatkina and Alexandrova played 1 match. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Kasatkina and Alexandrova have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Kasatkina played 1 game more than Alexandrova. Kasatkina scored 21 winners (29% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian managed to score 27 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kasatkina | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 3 |
| 1st in | 35/57 | 41/65 |
| %1st in | 61% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 21/35 | 27/41 |
| %1st pts | 60% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 15/22 | 11/24 |
| %2nd pts | 68% | 46% |
Kasatkina recorded 1 ace . Alexandrova also managed to score 3 aces . Kasatkina won 60% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 68% of the points. On the other side, Alexandrova won 66% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kasatkina | Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 5 |
| Converted | 5/11 | 5/9 |
| % Converted | 45% | 56% |
| Conceded | 2 | 6 |
| Saved | 0 | 3 |
| % Saved | 0% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 |
Darya broke her opponent 5 times with a 45% conversion rate. Darya dropped her serve twice and she saved 0% of the break points that she conceded. Alexandrova broke her opponent 5 times with a 56% conversion rate. Alexandrova conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded.
| Kasatkina | |||
| R2 Parks |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | |
| pts | 73-53 | 73-53 | |
| Total points | 126 | 126 | |
| Winners | 21 | 21 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 29% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 35/57 | 35/57 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 21/35 | 21/35 | |
| % 1st pts | 60% | 60% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/22 | 15/22 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 68% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 5/11 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Alexandrova | |||
| R2 Danilovic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | |
| pts | 67-57 | 67-57 | |
| Total points | 124 | 124 | |
| Winners | 27 | 27 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 41/65 | 41/65 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 27/41 | 27/41 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/24 | 11/24 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 46% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 5/9 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
| Saved | 3/6 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWLLWLLW
LWWLWWWLWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Yuliia StarodubtsevaStarodubtseva – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (2-6 7-62 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Magdalena FrechFrech (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Anastasija SevastovaSevastova (6-0 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Cori GauffGauff – Ann LiLi (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Madison KeysKeys – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (7-5 7-63) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Belinda BencicBencic – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (6-3 4-6 7-62) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elise MertensMertens (9-2) – H2H and prediction
- Rebeka MasarovaMasarova – Peyton StearnsStearns (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Marta KostyukKostyuk (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sofia KeninKenin – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Moyuka UchijimaUchijima (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Donna VekicVekic – Emma NavarroNavarro (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Belinda BencicBencic – Cori GauffGauff (2-2) – H2H and prediction
