Jessica Pegula and Moyuka Uchijima will play each other in the 3^rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:30 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.106
Moyuka Uchijima -> 6.7

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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Moyuka Uchijima

There is no head to head record between Jessica Pegula and Moyuka Uchijima since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 3 (career-high), Jessica reached the 3^rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Eva Lys 6-2 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, Jessica had a good straight sets win against Lys (6-2 6-2). During the match, Pegula scored 66 points vs Lys’s 41. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 18 winners.

Talking about the service games, Pegula scored 3 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Jessica Pegula lost the serve twice and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 60% of her first serves in, winning 67% (18/27) of the points behind her 1st serve and 67% (12/18) on the 2nd serve. Jessica broke Lys 6 times after converting 60% of her break points (6/10).

Pegula has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 67% of her matches (331-164). 7-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Pegula has a compiled 70-43 win-loss record in the last years on clay.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Austin where she beat Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Charleston where she beat Sofia Kenin in the final 6-3 7-5.

Jessica has an overall 27-7 win-loss record in 2025, 7-1 on clay (See FULL STATS)

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Previously in Madrid

Moyuka Uchijima

Ranked no. 56, Uchijima got to the 3^rd round after defeating Robin Montgomery 1-6 6-4 6-3 and Ons Jabeur 4-6 6-3 6-4.

In the 2^nd round against Jabeur, The Japanese recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-4). During the match Uchijima scored 98 points vs Jabeur’s 89. Uchijima was extremely aggressive to blast 44 winners.

About the serving games, Uchijima struck 3 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Moyuka Uchijima lost the serve 3 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Uchijima put 65% of her first serves in, winning 71% (44/62) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (17/34) on the 2nd serve. The Japanese broke Jabeur 4 times after converting 31% of her break points (4/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Japanese has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.

Moyuka has an overall 15-12 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, her best result was reaching the qualifications in 2023. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Pegula	Uchijima
Match played	1	2
Tot Set	2	6
Tot Games	16	55
Pts	66-41	176-163
Total Points	107	339
Winners	18	72
%Winners	27%	41%

Pegula played 1 match while Uchijima competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Moyuka Uchijima surrendered 2 sets while Jessica Pegula hasn’t conceded a set so far. Pegula has played 4 set(s) less than Uchijima (2 vs 6). Therefore, Pegula played 39 games less than Uchijima. The American scored 18 winners (27% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese managed to score 72 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Pegula	Uchijima
Aces	3	5
Avg per match	3	2.5
1st in	27/45	105/167
%1st in	60%	63%
1st pts	18/27	72/105
%1st pts	67%	69%
2nd pts	12/18	35/62
%2nd pts	67%	56%

Pegula fired 3 aces . Uchijima scored 5 aces (2.5 per match). Pegula won 67% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 67% of the points. On the other side, Uchijima won 69% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Pegula	Uchijima
Won	6	7
Converted	6/10	7/19
% Converted	60%	37%
Conceded	8	13
Saved	6	7
% Saved	75%	54%
Times Broken	2	6

Jessica broke her opponent 6 times with a 60% conversion rate. Pegula dropped her serve twice and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. Uchijima broke her opponents 7 times with a 37% conversion rate. The Japanese conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 54% of the break points that she conceded.

Pegula
	R2 Lys	Total
Score	6-2 6-2
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	16	16
pts	66-41	66-41
Total points	107	107
Winners	18	18
%Winners	27%	27%
SERVE
Aces	3	3
Double Faults	2	2
1st in	27/45	27/45
% 1st in	60%	60%
1st pts	18/27	18/27
% 1st pts	67%	67%
2nd pts	12/18	12/18
% 2nd pts	67%	67%
Breaks
Won	6	6
Converted	6/10	6/10
Converted %	60%	60%
Conceded	8	8
Saved	6/8	6
Saved %	75%	75%
Times Broken	2	2

Uchijima
	R1 Montgomery	R2 Jabeur	Total
Score	1-6 6-4 6-3	4-6 6-3 6-4
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	26	29	55
pts	78-74	98-89	176-163
Total points	152	187	339
Winners	28	44	72
%Winners	36%	45%	41%
SERVE
Aces	2	3	5
Double Faults	5	5	10
1st in	43/71	62/96	105/167
% 1st in	61%	65%	63%
1st pts	28/43	44/62	72/105
% 1st pts	65%	71%	69%
2nd pts	18/28	17/34	35/62
% 2nd pts	64%	50%	56%
Breaks
Won	3	4	7
Converted	3/6	4/13	7/19
Converted %	50%	31%	37%
Conceded	7	6	13
Saved	4/7	3/6	7
Saved %	57%	50%	107%
Times Broken	3	3	6

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Madison KeysKeys – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (7-5 7-6³) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Belinda BencicBencic – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (6-3 4-6 7-6²) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Yuliia StarodubtsevaStarodubtseva – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (2-6 7-6² 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Magdalena FrechFrech (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Anastasija SevastovaSevastova (6-0 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Cori GauffGauff – Ann LiLi (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elise MertensMertens (9-2) – H2H and prediction
• Rebeka MasarovaMasarova – Peyton StearnsStearns (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Marta KostyukKostyuk (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Sofia KeninKenin – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Moyuka UchijimaUchijima (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (2-3) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (3-2) – H2H and prediction
• Maria SakkariSakkari – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Donna VekicVekic – Emma NavarroNavarro (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Belinda BencicBencic – Cori GauffGauff (2-2) – H2H and prediction