Peyton Stearns and Rebeka Masarova will square off in the 3^rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 4:00 pm on STADIUM 3. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Peyton Stearns who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Peyton Stearns is the pick to win this match.
Peyton Stearns -> 1.75
Rebeka Masarova -> 2.08

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Prediction and head to head Peyton Stearns vs. Rebeka Masarova

This will be the 2^nd time that Peyton Stearns and Rebeka Masarova clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Stearns (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.

The last time that they locked horns, Stearns won 4-6 6-4 6-4 in the 1^st round in Indian Wells back in 2023.

Highlights Peyton Stearns vs Rebeka Masarova – Indian Wells 09-March-2023

Peyton Stearns

Ranked no. 44, Stearns reached the 3^rd round after defeating Kimberly Birrell 5-7 6-3 6-4 and Amanda Anisimova 6-2 2-6 7-5.

In the 2^nd round, The American defeated Anisimova (6-2 2-6 7-5). During the match, Stearns scored 101 points vs Anisimova’s 95. The American was exceptionally aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Regarding the service games, Stearns struck 6 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Peyton Stearns lost the serve 6 times and she saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Stearns put 61% of her first serves in, winning 61% (36/59) of the points behind her 1st serve and 37% (14/38) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Anisimova 7 times after converting 39% of her break points (7/18).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has lost 2 set in this event to conquer 52% of the points she played.

Stearns has a winning match record in the last 8 years having won 59% of her matches (165-114). 2-1 on clay in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this competition, Stearns has a composed50-30 record in the last 8 years on clay.

Stearns has an aggregate 10-10 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Rebeka Masarova

Ranked no. 153, Rebeka got to the 3^rd round after beating Arantxa Rus 6-1 7-5, Sara Bejlek 6-2 5-7 6-2, Ajla Tomljanovic 6-3 1-6 7-5 and Yulia Putintseva 6-3 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, Masarova had a good straight sets win against Putintseva (6-3 6-3). During the match Masarova scored 58 points vs Putintseva’s 46. Rebeka was very aggressive to blast 21 winners.

About the serving games, Masarova blasted 4 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Rebeka Masarova was pretty effective on serve to win 75% (21/28) of her 1st serve and 60% (12/20) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Rebeka broke Putintseva 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Rebeka started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.

Rebeka’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in the Puerto Vallarta.

Rebeka has a compiled 15-10 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS)

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Previously in Madrid

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2023. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Stearns	Masarova
Match played	2	4
Tot Set	6	10
Tot Games	59	93
Pts	209-191	297-251
Total Points	400	548
Winners	84	115
%Winners	40%	39%

Stearns played 2 matches while Masarova competed in 4 matches. Masarova started her run from the qualifications while Stearns had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Peyton Stearns surrendered 2 sets, while Rebeka Masarova dropped 2 sets. Stearns has played 4 set(s) less than Masarova (6 vs 10). Therefore, Stearns played 34 games less than Masarova. Stearns scored 84 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Rebeka scored 115 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Stearns	Masarova
Aces	9	24
Avg per match	4.5	6
1st in	138/200	149/262
%1st in	69%	57%
1st pts	84/138	115/149
%1st pts	61%	77%
2nd pts	25/62	55/113
%2nd pts	40%	49%

Stearns made 9 aces (4.5 per match). Masarova recorded 24 aces (6 per match). Stearns won 61% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 40% of the points. On the other side, Masarova won 77% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 49% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Stearns	Masarova
Won	13	19
Converted	13/31	19/34
% Converted	42%	56%
Conceded	26	16
Saved	15	6
% Saved	58%	38%
Times Broken	11	10

Stearns broke her opponents 13 times with a 42% conversion rate. Stearns surrendered her serve 11 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded. Masarova broke her opponents 19 times with a 56% conversion rate. Masarova conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 38% of the break points that she conceded.

Stearns
	R1 Birrell	R2 Anisimova	Total
Score	5-7 6-3 6-4	6-2 2-6 7-5
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	31	28	59
pts	108-96	101-95	209-191
Total points	204	196	400
Winners	48	36	84
%Winners	44%	36%	40%
SERVE
Aces	3	6	9
Double Faults	6	6	12
1st in	79/103	59/97	138/200
% 1st in	77%	61%	69%
1st pts	48/79	36/59	84/138
% 1st pts	61%	61%	61%
2nd pts	11/24	14/38	25/62
% 2nd pts	46%	37%	40%
Breaks
Won	6	7	13
Converted	6/13	7/18	13/31
Converted %	46%	39%	42%
Conceded	12	14	26
Saved	7/12	8/14	15
Saved %	58%	57%	58%
Times Broken	5	6	11

Masarova
	Q1 Rus	Q3 Bejlek	R1 Tomljanovic	R2 Putintseva	Total
Score	6-1 7-5	6-2 5-7 6-2	6-3 1-6 7-5	6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	3	2	10
Tot Games	19	28	28	18	93
pts	62-42	95-83	82-80	58-46	297-251
Total points	104	178	162	104	548
Winners	24	32	38	21	115
%Winners	39%	34%	46%	36%	39%
SERVE
Aces	8	3	9	4	24
Double Faults	1	8	5	2	16
1st in	30/51	45/82	46/81	28/48	149/262
% 1st in	59%	55%	57%	58%	57%
1st pts	24/30	32/45	38/46	21/28	115/149
% 1st pts	80%	71%	83%	75%	77%
2nd pts	13/21	15/37	15/35	12/20	55/113
% 2nd pts	62%	41%	43%	60%	49%
Breaks
Won	4	8	3	4	19
Converted	4/9	8/14	3/4	4/7	19/34
Converted %	44%	57%	75%	57%	56%
Conceded	2	7	6	1	16
Saved	1/2	2/7	3/6	0/1	6
Saved %	50%	29%	50%	0%	65%
Times Broken	1	5	3	1	10

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Madison KeysKeys – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (7-5 7-6³) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Belinda BencicBencic – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (6-3 4-6 7-6²) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Yuliia StarodubtsevaStarodubtseva – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (2-6 7-6² 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Magdalena FrechFrech (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Anastasija SevastovaSevastova (6-0 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Cori GauffGauff – Ann LiLi (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elise MertensMertens (9-2) – H2H and prediction
• Rebeka MasarovaMasarova – Peyton StearnsStearns (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Marta KostyukKostyuk (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Sofia KeninKenin – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jessica PegulaPegula – Moyuka UchijimaUchijima (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (2-3) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (3-2) – H2H and prediction
• Maria SakkariSakkari – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Donna VekicVekic – Emma NavarroNavarro (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Belinda BencicBencic – Cori GauffGauff (2-2) – H2H and prediction