Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens will square off in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 12th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 11:00 am on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.089
Elise Mertens -> 7.4

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens

This will be the 12th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens square off. The head to head is 9-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on clay.

The last time that they squared off, Sabalenka won 6-4 6-1 in the quarter in Stuttgart back in April 2025.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens – Stuttgart 19-April-2025

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka

26 - 5win/loss

Hard
23-4
I Hard
0-0
Clay
3-1
Rank
1
High
1
WWWWWWLWWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 31-5 23-4 8-1 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 56-14 38-7 15-4 2-2 1-1 0-0
2023 55-14 35-9 14-3 0-0 6-2 0-0
2022 33-22 20-15 9-5 0-0 4-2 0-0
2021 45-18 24-11 13-3 1-1 7-3 0-0

Currently world no. 1 the Belarussian got to the 3rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Anna Blinkova 6-3 6-4.

In the 2nd round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Blinkova (6-3 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 78 points vs Blinkova’s 69. Aryna was exceptionally aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka scored just 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 5 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 50% of her first serves in, winning 75% (27/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (18/36) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Blinkova 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).

Sabalenka has an extraordinary match record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (400-173). 3-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an aggregate 80-40 win-loss record in the last years on clay.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2.

Aryna has an aggregate 26-5 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Madrid
Sabalenka's Record

Elise Mertens

Elise Mertens

19 - 8win/loss

Hard
10-6
I Hard
5-0
Clay
4-2
Rank
24
High
12
LWLWWLWLWL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 19-9 10-6 4-3 5-0 0-0 0-0
2024 28-25 18-15 6-5 1-1 3-4 0-0
2023 30-22 24-16 5-4 0-0 1-2 0-0
2022 29-23 19-14 4-3 2-2 4-4 0-0
2021 33-20 20-10 9-5 2-2 2-3 0-0

Ranked no. 26, Mertens got to the 3rd round after beating Unknown Player bye and Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 6-3 6-3.

In the 2nd round, Elise had a good straight sets win against Camila Osorio Serrano (6-3 6-3). During the match Mertens scored 66 points vs Camila Osorio Serrano’s 55. Mertens was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.

About the serving games, Mertens made 3 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Elise Mertens lost the serve once and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 61% of her first serves in, winning 82% (31/38) of the points behind her 1st serve and 38% (9/24) on the 2nd serve. Mertens broke Camila Osorio Serrano 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Singapore where she beat Ann Li in the final 6-1 6-4.

Elise has a compiled 19-8 win-loss record in 2025, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2021. See her history.

Madrid
Mertens's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

A.Sabalenka
E.Mertens
1h:37
1h:37
Time on court​
1h:35
1h:35
1h:37
1h:37
Last match​
1h:35
1h:35
1
1
Match played
1
1
19
19
Games Played​
18
18
2
2
Set played​​
2
2
78
78
Total points​
66
66
78
78
Avg point​
66
66
27
27
Winners
31
31
27
27
Avg Winners​
31
31
35%
35%
Ratio winners
47%
47%
-- Serve --
1
1
Aces
3
3
1
1
Avg Aces
3
3
5
5
Double Faults
1
1
5
5
Avg Double Faults
1
1
27/36
27/36
1st won total​
31/38
31/38
!
75%
75%
1st won %
!
82%
82%
18/36
18/36
2nd won total​
9/24
9/24
50%
50%
2nd won %
!
38%
38%
-- Break Points --
3/7
3/7
BP won
4/9
4/9
3/7
3/7
Avg BP won
4/9
4/9
43%
43%
Won
44%
44%
7
7
Conceded
4
4
7
7
Avg Conceded
4
4
1
1
Broken
1
1
1
1
Avg Broken
1
1
6
6
Saved
3
3

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Sabalenka Mertens
Match played 1 1
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 19 18
Pts 78-69 66-55
Total Points 147 121
Winners 27 31
%Winners 35% 47%

Both Sabalenka and Mertens played 1 match. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Mertens have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Sabalenka played 1 game more than Mertens. The Belarussian scored 27 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Mertens struck 31 winners (47%).

Serve Performance

Serve Sabalenka Mertens
Aces 1 3
Avg per match 1 3
1st in 36/72 38/62
%1st in 50% 61%
1st pts 27/36 31/38
%1st pts 75% 82%
2nd pts 18/36 9/24
%2nd pts 50% 38%

Sabalenka recorded 1 ace . Mertens also managed to score 3 aces . Sabalenka won 75% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 82% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 38% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Sabalenka Mertens
Won 3 4
Converted 3/7 4/9
% Converted 43% 44%
Conceded 7 4
Saved 6 3
% Saved 86% 75%
Times Broken 1 1

Aryna broke her opponent 3 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Belarussian dropped her serve once and she saved 86% of the break points that she conceded. Elise broke her opponent 4 times with a 44% conversion rate. Elise conceded her serve once and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
R2
Blinkova
Total
Score 6-3 6-4
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 19 19
pts 78-69 78-69
Total points 147 147
Winners 27 27
%Winners 35% 35%
SERVE
Aces 1 1
Double Faults 5 5
1st in 36/72 36/72
% 1st in 50% 50%
1st pts 27/36 27/36
% 1st pts 75% 75%
2nd pts 18/36 18/36
% 2nd pts 50% 50%
Breaks
Won 3 3
Converted 3/7 3/7
Converted % 43% 43%
Conceded 7 7
Saved 6/7 6
Saved % 86% 86%
Times Broken 1 1
Mertens
R2
Camila Osorio Serrano
Total
Score 6-3 6-3
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 18 18
pts 66-55 66-55
Total points 121 121
Winners 31 31
%Winners 47% 47%
SERVE
Aces 3 3
Double Faults 1 1
1st in 38/62 38/62
% 1st in 61% 61%
1st pts 31/38 31/38
% 1st pts 82% 82%
2nd pts 9/24 9/24
% 2nd pts 38% 38%
Breaks
Won 4 4
Converted 4/9 4/9
Converted % 44% 44%
Conceded 4 4
Saved 3/4 3
Saved % 75% 75%
Times Broken 1 1

Tennis Scores in Madrid

Upcoming matches in the draw