Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens will square off in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 12th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 11:00 am on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.089
Elise Mertens -> 7.4
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens
This will be the 12th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens square off. The head to head is 9-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Sabalenka won 6-4 6-1 in the quarter in Stuttgart back in April 2025.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens – Stuttgart 19-April-2025
Aryna Sabalenka
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 31-5 | 23-4 | 8-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Belarussian got to the 3rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Anna Blinkova 6-3 6-4.
In the 2nd round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Blinkova (6-3 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 78 points vs Blinkova’s 69. Aryna was exceptionally aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka scored just 1 ace for the entire match and she committed only 5 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 50% of her first serves in, winning 75% (27/36) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (18/36) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Blinkova 3 times after converting 43% of her break points (3/7).
Sabalenka has an extraordinary match record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (400-173). 3-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an aggregate 80-40 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2.
Aryna has an aggregate 26-5 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Elise Mertens
Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 19-9 | 10-6 | 4-3 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2024 | 28-25 | 18-15 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
2023 | 30-22 | 24-16 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
2022 | 29-23 | 19-14 | 4-3 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
2021 | 33-20 | 20-10 | 9-5 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 26, Mertens got to the 3rd round after beating Unknown Player bye and Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 6-3 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Elise had a good straight sets win against Camila Osorio Serrano (6-3 6-3). During the match Mertens scored 66 points vs Camila Osorio Serrano’s 55. Mertens was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.
About the serving games, Mertens made 3 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Elise Mertens lost the serve once and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 61% of her first serves in, winning 82% (31/38) of the points behind her 1st serve and 38% (9/24) on the 2nd serve. Mertens broke Camila Osorio Serrano 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Singapore where she beat Ann Li in the final 6-1 6-4.
Elise has a compiled 19-8 win-loss record in 2025, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2021. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Sabalenka | Mertens |
---|---|---|
Match played | 1 | 1 |
Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
Tot Games | 19 | 18 |
Pts | 78-69 | 66-55 |
Total Points | 147 | 121 |
Winners | 27 | 31 |
%Winners | 35% | 47% |
Both Sabalenka and Mertens played 1 match. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Mertens have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Sabalenka played 1 game more than Mertens. The Belarussian scored 27 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Mertens struck 31 winners (47%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Sabalenka | Mertens |
---|---|---|
Aces | 1 | 3 |
Avg per match | 1 | 3 |
1st in | 36/72 | 38/62 |
%1st in | 50% | 61% |
1st pts | 27/36 | 31/38 |
%1st pts | 75% | 82% |
2nd pts | 18/36 | 9/24 |
%2nd pts | 50% | 38% |
Sabalenka recorded 1 ace . Mertens also managed to score 3 aces . Sabalenka won 75% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 82% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 38% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Sabalenka | Mertens |
---|---|---|
Won | 3 | 4 |
Converted | 3/7 | 4/9 |
% Converted | 43% | 44% |
Conceded | 7 | 4 |
Saved | 6 | 3 |
% Saved | 86% | 75% |
Times Broken | 1 | 1 |
Aryna broke her opponent 3 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Belarussian dropped her serve once and she saved 86% of the break points that she conceded. Elise broke her opponent 4 times with a 44% conversion rate. Elise conceded her serve once and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded.
Sabalenka | |||
R2 Blinkova | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-3 6-4 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
Tot Games | 19 | 19 | |
pts | 78-69 | 78-69 | |
Total points | 147 | 147 | |
Winners | 27 | 27 | |
%Winners | 35% | 35% | |
SERVE | |||
Aces | 1 | 1 | |
Double Faults | 5 | 5 | |
1st in | 36/72 | 36/72 | |
% 1st in | 50% | 50% | |
1st pts | 27/36 | 27/36 | |
% 1st pts | 75% | 75% | |
2nd pts | 18/36 | 18/36 | |
% 2nd pts | 50% | 50% | |
Breaks | |||
Won | 3 | 3 | |
Converted | 3/7 | 3/7 | |
Converted % | 43% | 43% | |
Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
Saved | 6/7 | 6 | |
Saved % | 86% | 86% | |
Times Broken | 1 | 1 |
Mertens | |||
R2 Camila Osorio Serrano | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-3 6-3 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
Tot Games | 18 | 18 | |
pts | 66-55 | 66-55 | |
Total points | 121 | 121 | |
Winners | 31 | 31 | |
%Winners | 47% | 47% | |
SERVE | |||
Aces | 3 | 3 | |
Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
1st in | 38/62 | 38/62 | |
% 1st in | 61% | 61% | |
1st pts | 31/38 | 31/38 | |
% 1st pts | 82% | 82% | |
2nd pts | 9/24 | 9/24 | |
% 2nd pts | 38% | 38% | |
Breaks | |||
Won | 4 | 4 | |
Converted | 4/9 | 4/9 | |
Converted % | 44% | 44% | |
Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
Saved | 3/4 | 3 | |
Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
Times Broken | 1 | 1 |
Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Yuliia StarodubtsevaStarodubtseva – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (2-6 7-62 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Mirra AndreevaAndreeva – Magdalena FrechFrech (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Diana ShnaiderShnaider – Anastasija SevastovaSevastova (6-0 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Cori GauffGauff – Ann LiLi (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Madison KeysKeys – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (7-5 7-63) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Belinda BencicBencic – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (6-3 4-6 7-62) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elise MertensMertens (9-2) – H2H and prediction
- Rebeka MasarovaMasarova – Peyton StearnsStearns (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Marta KostyukKostyuk (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sofia KeninKenin – Anastasia PotapovaPotapova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Moyuka UchijimaUchijima (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Darya KasatkinaKasatkina (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Maria SakkariSakkari – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Donna VekicVekic – Emma NavarroNavarro (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Belinda BencicBencic – Cori GauffGauff (2-2) – H2H and prediction