Brandon Nakashima and Flavio Cobolli will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 11:00 am on STADIUM 3. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Flavio Cobolli who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Flavio Cobolli is the pick to win this match.
Flavio Cobolli -> 1.52
Brandon Nakashima -> 2.53
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Prediction and head to head Brandon Nakashima vs. Flavio Cobolli
There is no head to head record between Brandon Nakashima and Flavio Cobolli since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Brandon Nakashima
13 - 11win/loss
29
29
LWWLLLWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-12 | 10-7 | 4-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 61-32 | 24-12 | 13-7 | 15-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 21-26 | 9-15 | 3-4 | 8-3 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-26 | 17-13 | 5-5 | 9-4 | 10-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-25 | 17-10 | 4-7 | 20-5 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 32, Brandon got to the 3rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Sebastian Ofner 6-3 7-6(3).
In the 2nd round, Nakashima had a good straight sets win against Ofner (6-3 7-63). During the match, Nakashima scored 72 points vs Ofner’s 63. The American was exceptionally aggressive to blast 41 winners.
Talking about the service games, Nakashima struck 15 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Brandon Nakashima conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 1 break points. Furthermore, Nakashima put 67% of his first serves in, winning 84% (41/49) of the points behind his 1st serve and 42% (10/24) on the 2nd serve. Brandon was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Ofner once.
Nakashima has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (239-151). 3-3 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Nakashima has a compiled 32-30 match record in the last years on clay.
Brandon’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Acapulco and Houston.
The American has an overall 13-11 win-loss record in 2025, 3-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Flavio Cobolli
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10-12 | 3-7 | 7-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-29 | 26-13 | 10-9 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-36 | 10-6 | 43-23 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-34 | 6-4 | 24-21 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 46-30 | 5-4 | 39-21 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 36, Cobolli reached the 3rd round after beating Fabian Marozsan 7-6(4) 7-5 and Holger Rune 6-2 ret..
In the 2nd round against Rune, Flavio had a free pass after Rune retired on a 6-2 . scoreline.
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Bucharest where he overcame Sebastian Baez in the final 6-4 6-4.
Flavio has a composed 10-11 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nakashima | Cobolli |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 22 | 33 |
| Pts | 72-63 | 123-108 |
| Total Points | 135 | 231 |
| Winners | 41 | 44 |
| %Winners | 57% | 36% |
Nakashima played 1 match while Cobolli competed in 2 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Nakashima has played 2 set(s) less than Cobolli (2 vs 4). Therefore, Nakashima played 11 games less than Cobolli. Nakashima scored 41 winners (57% of the total points). On the other side, Flavio recorded 44 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nakashima | Cobolli |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 15 | 1.5 |
| 1st in | 49/73 | 66/112 |
| %1st in | 67% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 41/49 | 44/66 |
| %1st pts | 84% | 67% |
| 2nd pts | 10/24 | 26/46 |
| %2nd pts | 42% | 57% |
Nakashima recorded 15 aces . Cobolli fired 3 aces (1.5 per match). Nakashima won 84% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 42% of the points. On the other side, Cobolli won 67% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nakashima | Cobolli |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 1 | 5 |
| Converted | 1/1 | 5/12 |
| % Converted | 100% | 42% |
| Conceded | 1 | 10 |
| Saved | 1 | 8 |
| % Saved | 100% | 80% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 |
Brandon broke his opponent once with a 100% conversion rate. Nakashima pretty solid on his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 1 break points. The Italian broke his opponents 5 times with a 42% conversion rate. Cobolli conceded his serve twice and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nakashima | |||
| R2 Ofner |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 22 | |
| pts | 72-63 | 72-63 | |
| Total points | 135 | 135 | |
| Winners | 41 | 41 | |
| %Winners | 57% | 57% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 15 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 49/73 | 49/73 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 41/49 | 41/49 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 84% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/24 | 10/24 | |
| % 2nd pts | 42% | 42% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 1 | 1 | |
| Converted | 1/1 | 1/1 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 100% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Cobolli | ||||
| R1 Marozsan |
R2 Rune |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-64 7-5 | 6-2 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 8 | 33 | |
| pts | 93-86 | 30-22 | 123-108 | |
| Total points | 179 | 52 | 231 | |
| Winners | 31 | 13 | 44 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 43% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 47/84 | 19/28 | 66/112 | |
| % 1st in | 56% | 68% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 31/47 | 13/19 | 44/66 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 68% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/37 | 6/9 | 26/46 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 67% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Converted | 3/10 | 2/2 | 5/12 | |
| Converted % | 30% | 100% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 3 | 10 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 3/3 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 100% | 171% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLLLWWLW
LWWLLWWWWW Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (3-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Damir DzumhurDzumhur – Sebastian BaezBaez (1-6 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Gabriel DialloDiallo – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (7-5 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Kei NishikoriNishikori (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (7-63 6-2) – See score progression
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (2-6 6-4 6-0) – See score progression
- Jacob FearnleyFearnley – Tomas MachacMachac (1-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Laslo DjereDjere (w/o) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Alexander BublikBublik – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (6-4 7-64) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Sebastian OfnerOfner (6-3 7-63) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Nuno BorgesBorges (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (7-65 6-4) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Benjamin BonziBonzi – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Federico CinaCina (6-3 3-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Flavio CobolliCobolli – Holger RuneRune (6-2 ret.) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
- Jakub MensikMensik – Ethan QuinnQuinn (7-64 6-1) – See score progression
- Francisco ComesanaComesana – Arthur FilsFils (7-64 6-4) – See score progression
- Ben SheltonShelton – Mariano NavoneNavone (4-6 7-65 6-3) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Gael MonfilsMonfils (w/o) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Harold MayotMayot (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Damir DzumhurDzumhur – Sebastian BaezBaez (1-6 6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Kei NishikoriNishikori (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (3-6 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (7-6(3) 6-2) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Nicolas JarryJarry (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Jacob FearnleyFearnley – Tomas MachacMachac (1-6 6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (2-6 6-4 6-0) – See score progression
- Gabriel DialloDiallo – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (7-5 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jack DraperDraper – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Marcos GironGiron – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Reilly OpelkaOpelka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexandre MullerMuller – Ugo HumbertHumbert (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Francisco ComesanaComesana (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander BublikBublik – Andrey RublevRublev (3-5) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Benjamin BonziBonzi (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Casper RuudRuud (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Flavio CobolliCobolli (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Damir DzumhurDzumhur – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (5-1) – H2H and prediction
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
