Madison Keys and Anna Kalinskaya will play each other in the 3rd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 1:00 pm on ARANTXA SANCHEZ STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.4
Anna Kalinskaya -> 2.95

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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Anna Kalinskaya

This will be the 3rd time that Madison Keys and Anna Kalinskaya clash against each other. The head to head is 1-1 for Keys and Kalinskaya (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on clay.

The last time that they played, Kalinskaya won 6-2 6-4 in the 3rd round in Charleston back in April 2025.

Highlights Anna Kalinskaya vs Madison Keys – Charleston 03-April-2025

Madison Keys

Madison Keys

21 - 4win/loss

Hard
19-3
I Hard
0-0
Clay
2-1
Rank
6
High
5
LWWWLWLWLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 23-5 19-3 4-2 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 5 (career-high), the American got to the 3rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Lucia Bronzetti 6-4 6-3.

In the 2nd round, Madison had a good straight sets win against Bronzetti (6-4 6-3). During the match, Keys scored 64 points vs Bronzetti’s 49. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 21 winners.

Regarding the service games, Keys struck 4 aces and she was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Keys put 66% of her first serves in, winning 68% (21/31) of the points behind her 1st serve and 63% (10/16) on the 2nd serve. Madison broke Bronzetti 5 times after converting 45% of her break points (5/11).

Keys has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (248-127). 2-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Keys has an overall 60-32 record in the last years on clay.

Her best result of the year was winning the title in Adelaide where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she overcame Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.

Madison has an aggregate 21-4 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Madrid
Keys's Record

Anna Kalinskaya

Anna Kalinskaya

7 - 8win/loss

Hard
1-6
I Hard
3-1
Clay
3-1
Rank
28
High
11
LWLWWLWLLL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 7-9 1-6 3-2 3-1 0-0 0-0
2024 38-19 28-12 3-5 0-0 7-2 0-0
2023 28-18 16-15 7-3 5-0 0-0 0-0
2022 27-20 22-10 2-6 1-1 2-3 0-0
2021 30-23 19-12 3-7 5-2 3-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 29, the Russian got to the 3rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Diane Parry 7-6(4) 6-4.

In the 2nd round, Anna had a good straight sets win against Parry (7-64 6-4). During the match Kalinskaya scored 79 points vs Parry’s 70. Anna was extremely aggressive to blast 43 winners.

Talking about serving, Kalinskaya recorded 5 aces and she committed only 5 double faults. Anna Kalinskaya lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Kalinskaya put 73% of her first serves in, winning 80% (43/54) of the points behind her 1st serve and 40% (8/20) on the 2nd serve. Anna broke Parry twice after converting 33% of her break points (2/6).

Kalinskaya’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Singapore.

Anna has a composed 7-8 win-loss record in 2025, 3-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2023. See her history.

Madrid
Kalinskaya's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

M.Keys
A.Kalinskaya
1h:21
1h:21
Time on court​
1h:43
1h:43
1h:21
1h:21
Last match​
1h:43
1h:43
1
1
Match played
1
1
19
19
Games Played​
23
23
2
2
Set played​​
2
2
64
64
Total points​
79
79
64
64
Avg point​
79
79
21
21
Winners
43
43
21
21
Avg Winners​
43
43
33%
33%
Ratio winners
54%
54%
-- Serve --
4
4
Aces
5
5
4
4
Avg Aces
5
5
0
0
Double Faults
5
5
0
0
Avg Double Faults
5
5
21/31
21/31
1st won total​
43/54
43/54
68%
68%
1st won %
!
80%
80%
10/16
10/16
2nd won total​
8/20
8/20
!
63%
63%
2nd won %
40%
40%
-- Break Points --
5/11
5/11
BP won
2/6
2/6
5/11
5/11
Avg BP won
2/6
2/6
45%
45%
Won
33%
33%
2
2
Conceded
3
3
2
2
Avg Conceded
3
3
2
2
Broken
1
1
2
2
Avg Broken
1
1
0
0
Saved
2
2
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Keys Kalinskaya
Match played 1 1
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 19 23
Pts 64-49 79-70
Total Points 113 149
Winners 21 43
%Winners 33% 54%

Both Keys and Kalinskaya played 1 match. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Keys and Kalinskaya have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Keys played 4 games less than Kalinskaya. Keys scored 21 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian fired 43 winners (54%).

Serve Performance

Serve Keys Kalinskaya
Aces 4 5
Avg per match 4 5
1st in 31/47 54/74
%1st in 66% 73%
1st pts 21/31 43/54
%1st pts 68% 80%
2nd pts 10/16 8/20
%2nd pts 63% 40%

Keys fired 4 aces . Kalinskaya recorded 5 aces . Keys won 68% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Kalinskaya won 80% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 40% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Keys Kalinskaya
Won 5 2
Converted 5/11 2/6
% Converted 45% 33%
Conceded 2 3
Saved 0 2
% Saved 0% 67%
Times Broken 2 1

Madison broke her opponent 5 times with a 45% conversion rate. Keys conceded her serve twice and she saved 0% of the break points that she conceded. The Russian broke her opponent twice with a 33% conversion rate. The Russian conceded her serve once and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.

Keys
R2
Bronzetti		 Total
Score 6-4 6-3
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 19 19
pts 64-49 64-49
Total points 113 113
Winners 21 21
%Winners 33% 33%
SERVE
Aces 4 4
Double Faults 0 0
1st in 31/47 31/47
% 1st in 66% 66%
1st pts 21/31 21/31
% 1st pts 68% 68%
2nd pts 10/16 10/16
% 2nd pts 63% 63%
Breaks
Won 5 5
Converted 5/11 5/11
Converted % 45% 45%
Conceded 2 2
Saved 0/2 0
Saved % 0% 0%
Times Broken 2 2
Kalinskaya
R2
Parry		 Total
Score 7-64 6-4
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 23 23
pts 79-70 79-70
Total points 149 149
Winners 43 43
%Winners 54% 54%
SERVE
Aces 5 5
Double Faults 5 5
1st in 54/74 54/74
% 1st in 73% 73%
1st pts 43/54 43/54
% 1st pts 80% 80%
2nd pts 8/20 8/20
% 2nd pts 40% 40%
Breaks
Won 2 2
Converted 2/6 2/6
Converted % 33% 33%
Conceded 3 3
Saved 2/3 2
Saved % 67% 67%
Times Broken 1 1

Tennis Scores in Madrid

Upcoming matches in the draw

Keys
More Stats
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Kalinskaya

Click for FULL STATS