Novak Djokovic and Matteo Arnaldi will square off in the 2^nd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 3:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Novak Djokovic who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Novak Djokovic is the pick to win this match.
Novak Djokovic -> 1.27
Matteo Arnaldi -> 3.76

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Prediction and head to head Novak Djokovic vs. Matteo Arnaldi

There is no head to head record between Novak Djokovic and Matteo Arnaldi since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Novak Djokovic

Ranked no. 5, Novak will start his run in Madrid after he played his last match in Monte Carlo where he lost 6-3 6-4 to Tabilo in the 2^nd round on the 9^th of April.

Novak has a compiled 12-6 win-loss record in 2025, 0-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Djokovic’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Miami.

Talking about his overall career, The Serbian has an overall 1237-254 record. He has a positive 341-77 record on clay.

Previously in Madrid

Previously, he won this tournament 3 times in 2011, 2016 and 2019. See his history.

Matteo Arnaldi

Ranked no. 44, Arnaldi reached the 2^nd round after beating Borna Coric 4-6 6-4 7-5.

In the 1^st round against Coric, Arnaldi recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-4 7-5). During the match Arnaldi scored 103 points vs Coric’s 100. The Italian was pretty aggressive to blast 36 winners.

About the serving games, Arnaldi fired 13 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Matteo Arnaldi was pretty efficient on serve to win 73% (36/49) of his 1st serve and 56% (27/48) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. The Italian broke Coric 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

Arnaldi’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Delray Beach.

Arnaldi has a compiled 9-9 win-loss record in 2025, 1-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2023. See his history.

Tennis Scores in Madrid

• Jakub MensikMensik – Ethan QuinnQuinn (7-6⁴ 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Laslo DjereDjere (w/o) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Casper RuudRuud – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Harold MayotMayot (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Francisco ComesanaComesana – Arthur FilsFils (7-6⁴ 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (7-6⁵ 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Taylor Fritz
  Fritz – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Alexander BublikBublik – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (6-4 7-6⁴) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Benjamin BonziBonzi – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-4 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Sebastian KordaKorda – Federico CinaCina (6-3 3-6 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Gael MonfilsGael – Andrey RublevAndrey (w/o (Monfils ret.)) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Gael MonfilsMonfils – Andrey RublevRublev (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Kei NishikoriNishikori – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Nicolas JarryJarry (2-2) – H2H and prediction
• Marcos GironGiron – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Reilly OpelkaOpelka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexandre MullerMuller – Ugo HumbertHumbert (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Benjamin BonziBonzi (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (6-4) – H2H and prediction
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (3-0) – H2H and prediction
• Sebastian KordaKorda – Casper RuudRuud (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Francisco ComesanaComesana (3-1) – H2H and prediction
• Sebastian BaezBaez – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (3-0) – H2H and prediction
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Sebastian OfnerOfner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Cameron NorrieNorrie (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Flavio CobolliCobolli – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jacob FearnleyFearnley – Tomas MachacMachac (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (0-0) – H2H and prediction