Novak Djokovic and Matteo Arnaldi will square off in the 2nd round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 3:30 pm on MANOLO SANTANA STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Novak Djokovic who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Novak Djokovic is the pick to win this match.
Novak Djokovic -> 1.27
Matteo Arnaldi -> 3.76
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Prediction and head to head Novak Djokovic vs. Matteo Arnaldi
There is no head to head record between Novak Djokovic and Matteo Arnaldi since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Novak Djokovic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-6 | 12-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-9 | 15-5 | 16-3 | 1-0 | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-7 | 27-1 | 12-3 | 11-2 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-7 | 2-1 | 14-4 | 19-2 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 55-7 | 19-3 | 18-3 | 11-1 | 7-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 5, Novak will start his run in Madrid after he played his last match in Monte Carlo where he lost 6-3 6-4 to Tabilo in the 2nd round on the 9th of April.
Novak has a compiled 12-6 win-loss record in 2025, 0-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Djokovic’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Miami.
Talking about his overall career, The Serbian has an overall 1237-254 record. He has a positive 341-77 record on clay.
Previously in Madrid
Previously, he won this tournament 3 times in 2011, 2016 and 2019. See his history.
Matteo Arnaldi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9-9 | 6-6 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-26 | 17-13 | 10-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 51-26 | 21-15 | 23-7 | 4-3 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-35 | 9-3 | 37-20 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-24 | 2-1 | 51-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 44, Arnaldi reached the 2nd round after beating Borna Coric 4-6 6-4 7-5.
In the 1st round against Coric, Arnaldi recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-4 7-5). During the match Arnaldi scored 103 points vs Coric’s 100. The Italian was pretty aggressive to blast 36 winners.
About the serving games, Arnaldi fired 13 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Matteo Arnaldi was pretty efficient on serve to win 73% (36/49) of his 1st serve and 56% (27/48) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. The Italian broke Coric 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Arnaldi’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Delray Beach.
Arnaldi has a compiled 9-9 win-loss record in 2025, 1-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2023. See his history.
Head 2 Head
LLWWWWWLLL
WLLLWLWWLL Tennis Scores in Madrid
- Jakub MensikMensik – Ethan QuinnQuinn (7-64 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Laslo DjereDjere (w/o) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Casper RuudRuud – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Harold MayotMayot (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (6-2 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Francisco ComesanaComesana – Arthur FilsFils (7-64 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (7-65 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Taylor FritzFritz – Christopher O ConnellO Connell (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander BublikBublik – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (6-4 7-64) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Benjamin BonziBonzi – Hubert HurkaczHurkacz (6-4 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Federico CinaCina (6-3 3-6 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Gael MonfilsGael – Andrey RublevAndrey (w/o (Monfils ret.)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
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- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Reilly OpelkaOpelka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexandre MullerMuller – Ugo HumbertHumbert (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Benjamin BonziBonzi (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (6-4) – H2H and prediction
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Casper RuudRuud (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Francisco ComesanaComesana (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian BaezBaez – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Sebastian OfnerOfner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Cameron NorrieNorrie (1-3) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Flavio CobolliCobolli – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jacob FearnleyFearnley – Tomas MachacMachac (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Gabriel DialloDiallo – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (0-0) – H2H and prediction
