Alibek Kachmazov and Yosuke Watanuki will face off in the semifinal of the Gwangju Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 11:00 am on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Yosuke Watanuki who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Yosuke Watanuki is the pick to win this match.
Yosuke Watanuki -> 1.46
Alibek Kachmazov -> 2.56
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Prediction and head to head Alibek Kachmazov vs. Yosuke Watanuki
This will be the 2nd time that Alibek Kachmazov and Yosuke Watanuki square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Watanuki (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Watanuki won 6-1 6-3 in the 1st round in the Nonthaburi 2 Challenger back in 2022.
Alibek Kachmazov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10-10 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-28 | 17-13 | 6-6 | 14-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 49-31 | 24-14 | 9-6 | 14-10 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| 2022 | 49-21 | 18-11 | 9-5 | 22-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-20 | 6-8 | 3-6 | 27-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 185, Alibek reached the semifinal after beating Terence Atmane 7-6(1) ret., Rio Noguchi 7-6(3) 6-4 and Omar Jasika 6-4 6-2.
In the quarter, Alibek had a good straight sets win against Jasika (6-4 6-2). During the match, Kachmazov scored 64 points vs Jasika’s 52. Alibek was quite aggressive to blast 18 winners.
Talking about the service games, Kachmazov blasted 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Alibek Kachmazov lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Kachmazov put 50% of his first serves in, winning 55% (18/33) of the points behind his 1st serve and 67% (22/33) on the 2nd serve. Kachmazov broke Jasika 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Kachmazov hasn’t conceded yet a set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Kachmazov has a solid record in the last 7 years having won 61% of his matches (200-130). 4-3 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Kachmazov has a composed85-62 record in the last 7 years on hard.
Alibek’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in the Thionville Challenger.
The Russian has an overall 10-10 win-loss record in 2025, 4-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Gwangju Challenger
Yosuke Watanuki
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-7 | 11-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 11-11 | 9-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-23 | 29-12 | 7-5 | 1-2 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 40-22 | 19-11 | 6-4 | 15-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 18-17 | 8-9 | 2-3 | 6-4 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 213, Yousuke reached the semifinal after beating James McCabe 7-6(12) 6-3, Johannus Monday 6-3 6-7(7) 6-4 and Brandon Holt 7-5 7-6(2).
In the quarter, Yousuke had a good straight sets win against Holt (7-5 7-62). During the match Watanuki scored 88 points vs Holt’s 73. Watanuki was exceptionally aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Talking about serving, Watanuki overwhelmed his opponent with 20 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Yosuke Watanuki lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Watanuki put 54% of his first serves in, winning 86% (37/43) of the points behind his 1st serve and 42% (15/36) on the 2nd serve. Watanuki broke Holt 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Japanese has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Watanuki has an aggregate 12-7 win-loss record in 2025, 11-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Gwangju Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2017. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kachmazov | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 54 | 79 |
| Pts | 194-167 | 289-253 |
| Total Points | 361 | 542 |
| Winners | 71 | 110 |
| %Winners | 37% | 38% |
Both Kachmazov and Watanuki played 3 matches. At the moment, Yosuke Watanuki surrendered 1 set while Alibek Kachmazov hasn’t dropped a set so far. Kachmazov has played 1 set(s) less than Watanuki (6 vs 7). Therefore, Kachmazov played 25 games less than Watanuki. The Russian scored 71 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Watanuki bagged 110 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kachmazov | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 40 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 13.3 |
| 1st in | 109/190 | 136/267 |
| %1st in | 57% | 51% |
| 1st pts | 71/109 | 110/136 |
| %1st pts | 65% | 81% |
| 2nd pts | 50/81 | 73/131 |
| %2nd pts | 62% | 56% |
Kachmazov struck 15 aces (5 per match). Watanuki blasted 40 aces (13.3 per match). Kachmazov won 65% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Watanuki won 81% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kachmazov | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 8 |
| Converted | 8/13 | 8/24 |
| % Converted | 62% | 33% |
| Conceded | 10 | 13 |
| Saved | 6 | 9 |
| % Saved | 60% | 69% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 |
Kachmazov broke his opponents 8 times with a 62% conversion rate. The Russian conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded. Yousuke broke his opponents 8 times with a 33% conversion rate. Yousuke conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded.
| Kachmazov | |||||
| R1 Atmane |
R2 Noguchi |
1/4 Jasika |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-61 ret. | 7-63 6-4 | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 13 | 23 | 18 | 54 | |
| pts | 56-52 | 74-63 | 64-52 | 194-167 | |
| Total points | 108 | 137 | 116 | 361 | |
| Winners | 22 | 31 | 18 | 71 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 42% | 28% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 10 | 3 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 35/56 | 41/68 | 33/66 | 109/190 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 60% | 50% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 22/35 | 31/41 | 18/33 | 71/109 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 76% | 55% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/21 | 18/27 | 22/33 | 50/81 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 67% | 67% | 62% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 2/3 | 4/5 | 8/13 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 67% | 80% | 62% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 67% | 67% | 61% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Watanuki | |||||
| R1 McCabe |
R2 Monday |
1/4 Holt |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-612 6-3 | 6-3 6-77 6-4 | 7-5 7-62 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 32 | 25 | 79 | |
| pts | 95-83 | 106-97 | 88-73 | 289-253 | |
| Total points | 178 | 203 | 161 | 542 | |
| Winners | 32 | 41 | 37 | 110 | |
| %Winners | 34% | 39% | 42% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 6 | 14 | 20 | 40 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 9 | 7 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 45/87 | 48/101 | 43/79 | 136/267 | |
| % 1st in | 52% | 48% | 54% | 51% | |
| 1st pts | 32/45 | 41/48 | 37/43 | 110/136 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 85% | 86% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/42 | 33/53 | 15/36 | 73/131 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 62% | 42% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Converted | 3/12 | 2/6 | 3/6 | 8/24 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 33% | 50% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 4 | 2 | 13 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 4/4 | 0/2 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 100% | 0% | 57% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWLLLWWWL
WWWLLLWWWW Tennis Scores in Gwangju Challenger
- Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate – Hyeon ChungChung (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
- Alibek KachmazovKachmazov – Omar JasikaJasika (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki – Brandon HoltHolt (7-5 7-62) – See score progression
- Jason Murray KublerMurray Kubler – Hugo GrenierGrenier (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Ray Ho/Matthew Christopher RomiosHo/Matthew Christopher Romios – Soon-Woo Kwon/Uisung ParkKwon/Uisung Park (2-6 7-5 10-7) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jason Murray KublerMurray Kubler – Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Yosuke WatanukiWatanuki – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
