Matteo Gigante and Francesco Maestrelli will square off in the quarter of the Rome Challenger for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 11:30 am on CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Gigante who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Matteo Gigante is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Gigante -> 1.571
Francesco Maestrelli -> 2.28
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Prediction and head to head Matteo Gigante vs. Francesco Maestrelli
This will be the 5th time that Matteo Gigante and Francesco Maestrelli clash against each other. The head to head is 2-2 for Gigante and Maestrelli (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Maestrelli won 7-6(2) 6-2 in the qualifications in the Turin Challenger back in 2024.
Matteo Gigante
10 - 9win/loss
195
132
LWWWWWLLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13-10 | 7-4 | 6-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 41-25 | 27-10 | 11-10 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-5 | 19-18 | 1-5 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 38-20 | 9-1 | 27-15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 21-15 | 2-2 | 16-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 195, Gigante reached the quarter after beating Lorenzo Giustino 3-6 6-1 6-2 and Kimmer Coppejans 5-7 6-4 6-1.
In the 2nd round against Coppejans, Gigante recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 6-4 6-1). During the match, Gigante scored 102 points vs Coppejans’s 88. Matteo was exceptionally aggressive to blast 42 winners.
Regarding the service games, Gigante fired 2 aces and he was very solid in conceding no double faults. Matteo Gigante lost the serve 3 times and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Gigante put 72% of his first serves in, winning 67% (42/63) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (12/25) on the 2nd serve. Gigante broke Coppejans 6 times after converting 46% of his break points (6/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has surrendered 2 set in this event to win 55% of the points he played.
Gigante has a winning win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 58% of his matches (152-110). 3-2 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Gigante has an overall84-60 record in the last 7 years on clay.
Gigante has an aggregate 10-9 win-loss record in 2025, 3-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Rome Challenger
Francesco Maestrelli
7 - 7win/loss
296
149
LWWLWWLLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9-9 | 3-3 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-36 | 11-7 | 21-23 | 5-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 27-38 | 9-10 | 16-24 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-24 | 5-4 | 34-12 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-18 | 8-3 | 18-12 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 296, Francesco got to the quarter after defeating Henri Squire 7-5 2-6 7-6(3) and Lorenzo Carboni 3-6 6-4 6-2.
In the 2nd round against Carboni, Francesco recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-4 6-2). During the match Maestrelli scored 96 points vs Carboni’s 91. Maestrelli was quite aggressive to blast 51 winners.
About the serving games, Maestrelli struck 5 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Francesco Maestrelli lost the serve 4 times and he saved 11 break points. Furthermore, Maestrelli put 65% of his first serves in, winning 73% (51/70) of the points behind his 1st serve and 29% (11/38) on the 2nd serve. Maestrelli broke Carboni 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Maestrelli has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 50% of the points he played.
Francesco has a compiled 7-7 win-loss record in 2025, 4-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Rome Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Gigante | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 53 | 60 |
| Pts | 190-156 | 199-198 |
| Total Points | 346 | 397 |
| Winners | 79 | 96 |
| %Winners | 42% | 48% |
Both Gigante and Maestrelli played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Matteo Gigante conceded 2 sets, while Francesco Maestrelli surrendered 2 sets. Talking about their workload, Gigante and Maestrelli have played the same amount of sets 6. However, Gigante played 7 games less than Maestrelli. The Italian scored 79 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Francesco scored 96 winners (48%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Gigante | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| 1st in | 114/169 | 143/219 |
| %1st in | 67% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 79/114 | 96/143 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 67% |
| 2nd pts | 28/55 | 33/76 |
| %2nd pts | 51% | 43% |
Gigante made 7 aces (3.5 per match). Maestrelli bagged 9 aces (4.5 per match). Gigante won 69% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Maestrelli won 67% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 43% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Gigante | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 11 | 8 |
| Converted | 11/20 | 8/17 |
| % Converted | 55% | 47% |
| Conceded | 9 | 25 |
| Saved | 4 | 17 |
| % Saved | 44% | 68% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 8 |
Gigante broke his opponents 11 times with a 55% conversion rate. Gigante surrendered his serve 5 times and he saved 44% of the break points that he conceded. Maestrelli broke his opponents 8 times with a 47% conversion rate. Maestrelli conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded.
| Gigante | ||||
| R1 Giustino |
R2 Coppejans |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-1 6-2 | 5-7 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 29 | 53 | |
| pts | 88-68 | 102-88 | 190-156 | |
| Total points | 156 | 190 | 346 | |
| Winners | 37 | 42 | 79 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 41% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 51/81 | 63/88 | 114/169 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 72% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 37/51 | 42/63 | 79/114 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 67% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/30 | 12/25 | 28/55 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 48% | 51% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 11 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 6/13 | 11/20 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 46% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 1/4 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 25% | 43% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Maestrelli | ||||
| R1 Squire |
R2 Carboni |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 2-6 7-63 | 3-6 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 33 | 27 | 60 | |
| pts | 103-107 | 96-91 | 199-198 | |
| Total points | 210 | 187 | 397 | |
| Winners | 45 | 51 | 96 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 53% | 48% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 6 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 73/111 | 70/108 | 143/219 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 65% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 45/73 | 51/70 | 96/143 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 73% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 22/38 | 11/38 | 33/76 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 29% | 43% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| Converted | 3/8 | 5/9 | 8/17 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 56% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 15 | 25 | |
| Saved | 6/10 | 11/15 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 73% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWLLWL
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