Hugo Gaston and Sebastian Ofner will square off in the 1st round of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 6:30 pm on COURT 6. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Hugo Gaston who should win in 3 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Hugo Gaston is the pick to win this match.
Hugo Gaston -> 1.48
Sebastian Ofner -> 2.65

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Hugo Gaston vs. Sebastian Ofner

This will be the 4th time that Hugo Gaston and Sebastian Ofner play each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Ofner (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on clay.

The last time that they played, Ofner won 3-6 6-3 7-6(4) in the quarter in the Mauthausen Challenger back in 2023.

Hugo Gaston

Hugo Gaston

11 - 13win/loss

Hard
8-7
I Hard
0-0
Clay
3-6
Rank
80
High
58
WWLLLWLWLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 11-13 8-7 3-6 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 31-31 5-12 15-11 8-6 3-2 0-0
2023 45-32 6-5 30-18 8-6 1-3 0-0
2022 27-31 4-9 4-8 16-11 3-3 0-0
2021 44-30 2-3 32-16 10-10 0-1 0-0

Ranked no. 80, Hugo reached the 1st round after defeating Yannick Hanfmann 7-6(6) 4-6 6-4 and Luca Nardi 6-4 6-2.

In the qualifications, Gaston had a good straight sets win against Nardi (6-4 6-2). During the match, Gaston scored 69 points vs Nardi’s 57. Gaston was very aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about the service games, Gaston managed to score 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Hugo Gaston was extremely effective on serve to win 81% (25/31) of his 1st serve and 58% (18/31) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The French player broke Nardi 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Hugo started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in this tournament to win 51% of the points he played.

Gaston has positive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (252-196). 3-6 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Gaston has an overall 134-85 match record in the last years on clay.

The French player has a composed 11-13 win-loss record in 2025, 3-6 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Madrid

Madrid
Gaston's Record

Sebastian Ofner

Sebastian Ofner

5 - 4win/loss

Clay
5-4
Rank
153
High
37
LWLWWLWWL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 5-4 0-0 5-4 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 19-25 6-8 8-13 1-0 4-4 0-0
2023 60-31 12-10 37-13 7-6 4-2 0-0
2022 28-18 4-4 21-12 0-0 3-2 0-0
2021 23-24 4-6 4-8 7-6 8-4 0-0

Ranked no. 153, Ofner will start his run in Madrid after he played his last match in the Madrid Challenger where he lost 4-6 6-3 6-3 to Gaubas in the 2nd

round on the 10th of April.

Ofner has an overall 5-4 win-loss record in 2025, 5-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).

In terms of his career, Sebastian has an overall 321-242 record. He has a positive 155-115 record on clay.

Previously in Madrid

Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2024. See his history.

Madrid
Ofner's Record

Tennis Scores in Madrid

Upcoming matches in the draw