Hugo Gaston and Luca Nardi will face off in the qualifications of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 3:00 pm on COURT 8. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Hugo Gaston who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Hugo Gaston is the pick to win this match.
Hugo Gaston -> 1.66
Luca Nardi -> 2.12
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Hugo Gaston vs. Luca Nardi
There is no head to head record between Hugo Gaston and Luca Nardi since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Hugo Gaston
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11-15 | 8-7 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-31 | 5-12 | 15-11 | 8-6 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-32 | 6-5 | 30-18 | 8-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 27-31 | 4-9 | 4-8 | 16-11 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 44-30 | 2-3 | 32-16 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 80, Gaston reached the qualifications after beating Yannick Hanfmann 7-6(6) 4-6 6-4.
In the qualifications, The French player defeated Hanfmann (7-66 4-6 6-4).During the match, Gaston scored less points (2) than Hanfmann. In fact, the world no. 80 won 112 points vs Hanfmann’s. That means that Gaston was more focused during the important points. Gaston was very aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Regarding the service games, Gaston scored just 1 ace during the match and he committed only 4 double faults. Hugo Gaston lost the serve 5 times and he saved 15 break points. Furthermore, Gaston put 50% of his first serves in, winning 69% (44/64) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (32/64) on the 2nd serve. The French player broke Hanfmann 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).
Gaston has winning record in the last 10 years having won 56% of his matches (251-196). 2-6 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Gaston has a compiled 133-85 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
Hugo has an overall 10-13 win-loss record in 2025, 2-6 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Luca Nardi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-15 | 9-8 | 3-4 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 32-27 | 14-14 | 8-5 | 9-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-36 | 20-10 | 8-13 | 12-12 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-20 | 5-2 | 11-10 | 17-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-24 | 3-3 | 26-13 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 100, Nardi reached the qualifications after beating Manas Manoj Dhamne 6-4 6-4.
In the qualifications, Nardi had a good straight sets win against Manoj Dhamne (6-4 6-4). During the match Nardi scored 59 points vs Manoj Dhamne’s 51. Nardi was quite aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about serving, Nardi scored 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Luca Nardi was quite effective on serve to win 79% (27/34) of his 1st serve and 60% (12/20) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Luca broke Manoj Dhamne 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
The Italian’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in the Koblenz Challenger.
The Italian has a composed 16-13 win-loss record in 2025, 1-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Gaston | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 33 | 20 |
| Pts | 112-114 | 59-51 |
| Total Points | 226 | 110 |
| Winners | 44 | 27 |
| %Winners | 39% | 46% |
Both Gaston and Nardi played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Hugo Gaston conceded 1 set while Luca Nardi hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Gaston has played 1 set more than Nardi (3 vs 2). Therefore, Gaston played 13 games more than Nardi. Gaston scored 44 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Luca struck 27 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Gaston | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 3 |
| 1st in | 64/128 | 34/54 |
| %1st in | 50% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 44/64 | 27/34 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 32/64 | 12/20 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 60% |
Gaston scored 1 ace . Nardi also managed to score 3 aces . Gaston won 69% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Nardi won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Gaston | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 3 |
| Converted | 5/9 | 3/5 |
| % Converted | 56% | 60% |
| Conceded | 20 | 2 |
| Saved | 15 | 1 |
| % Saved | 75% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 1 |
Gaston broke his opponent 5 times with a 56% conversion rate. Gaston surrendered his serve 5 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded. Luca broke his opponent 3 times with a 60% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve once and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Gaston | |||
| Q1 Hanfmann |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-66 4-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 33 | 33 | |
| pts | 112-114 | 112-114 | |
| Total points | 226 | 226 | |
| Winners | 44 | 44 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 64/128 | 64/128 | |
| % 1st in | 50% | 50% | |
| 1st pts | 44/64 | 44/64 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 32/64 | 32/64 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 50% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/9 | 5/9 | |
| Converted % | 56% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 20 | 20 | |
| Saved | 15/20 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 5 | |
| Nardi | |||
| Q1 Manoj |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | |
| pts | 59-51 | 59-51 | |
| Total points | 110 | 110 | |
| Winners | 27 | 27 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 34/54 | 34/54 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 27/34 | 27/34 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/20 | 12/20 | |
| % 2nd pts | 60% | 60% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 3/5 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWLLLWLW
LWWLWLLLLL 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- David GoffinGoffin – Alexandre MullerMuller (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Dusan LajovicLajovic – Christian GarinGarin (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Damir DzumhurDzumhur – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Thiago Moura MonteiroMoura Monteiro – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena – Jordan ThompsonThompson (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Botic Van De ZandschulpVan De Zandschulp – Juan Manuel CerundoloManuel Cerundolo (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Christopher O ConnellO Connell – Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Quentin HalysHalys – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Aleksandar VukicVukic – Kei NishikoriNishikori (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Benjamin BonziBonzi – Marin CilicCilic (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Roman SafiullinSafiullin – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan (3-2) – H2H and prediction
- Borna GojoGojo – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (5-3) – H2H and prediction
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Zizou BergsBergs – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Vit KoprivaKopriva – Valentin RoyerRoyer (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Hugo GastonGaston – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Fabian MarozsanMarozsan – Flavio CobolliCobolli (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tristan BoyerBoyer – Harold MayotMayot (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Rinky HijikataHijikata – Fabio FogniniFognini (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco ComesanaComesana – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jacob FearnleyFearnley – Hugo DellienDellien (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Gabriel DialloDiallo – Borna CoricCoric (1-0) – H2H and prediction
