Gabriel Diallo and Borna Coric will clash against each other in the qualifications of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 4:00 pm on COURT 4. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Borna Coric who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Borna Coric is the pick to win this match.
Borna Coric -> 1.69
Gabriel Diallo -> 2.07
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Prediction and head to head Gabriel Diallo vs. Borna Coric
This will be the 2nd time that Gabriel Diallo and Borna Coric square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Diallo (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Diallo won 7-6(1) 6-4 in the 2nd round in Almaty back in 2024.
Gabriel Diallo
14 - 13win/loss
54
54
LWWWWLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-14 | 10-8 | 7-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 49-26 | 30-12 | 7-6 | 9-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-28 | 8-11 | 2-2 | 24-10 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 23-10 | 17-6 | 0-0 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 12-4 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 78 (career-high), Diallo got to the qualifications after beating Nicolas Moreno De Alboran 6-3 6-3.
In the qualifications, Diallo had a good straight sets win against Moreno De Alboran (6-3 6-3). During the match, Diallo scored 60 points vs Moreno De Alboran’s 46. Diallo was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about the service games, Diallo fired 9 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Gabriel Diallo was very efficient on serve to win 74% (26/35) of his 1st serve and 75% (12/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Gabriel broke Moreno De Alboran 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Diallo has a solid win-loss record in the last 7 years having won 63% of his matches (147-88). 3-3 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Diallo has a compiled12-11 win-loss record in the last 7 years on clay.
Gabriel has a compiled 14-12 win-loss record in 2025, 3-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Gabriel has never competed in this tournament before.
Borna Coric
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26-8 | 1-2 | 15-4 | 10-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 23-27 | 8-13 | 3-7 | 11-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 22-19 | 10-10 | 9-5 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 27-17 | 10-5 | 10-9 | 7-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 6-3 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 3-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 104, Coric reached the qualifications after beating Otto Virtanen 6-7(1) 7-5 6-2.
In the qualifications against Virtanen, Coric recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-71 7-5 6-2). During the match Coric scored 108 points vs Virtanen’s 95. The Croatian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 52 winners.
About the serving games, Coric struck 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Borna Coric was extremely effective on serve to win 75% (52/69) of his 1st serve and 57% (16/28) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Croatian broke Virtanen 4 times after converting 29% of his break points (4/14).
His best result of the year was winning the title the Lugano Challenger where he beat Raphael Collignon in the final 6-3 6-1 and the Thionville Challenger where he overcame Arthur Bouquier in the final 6-4 6-4 and the Zadar Challenger where he overcame Valentin Royer in the final 3-6 6-2 6-3.
The Croatian has an overall 20-7 win-loss record in 2025, 9-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Diallo | Coric |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 18 | 33 |
| Pts | 60-46 | 108-95 |
| Total Points | 106 | 203 |
| Winners | 26 | 52 |
| %Winners | 43% | 48% |
Both Diallo and Coric played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Borna Coric surrendered 1 set while Gabriel Diallo hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Diallo has played 1 set(s) less than Coric (2 vs 3). Therefore, Diallo played 15 games less than Coric. The Canadian scored 26 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The Croatian fired 52 winners (48%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Diallo | Coric |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 3 |
| Avg per match | 9 | 3 |
| 1st in | 35/51 | 69/97 |
| %1st in | 69% | 71% |
| 1st pts | 26/35 | 52/69 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 12/16 | 16/28 |
| %2nd pts | 75% | 57% |
Diallo scored 9 aces . Coric blasted 3 aces . Diallo won 74% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 75% of the points. On the other side, Coric won 75% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Diallo | Coric |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 4 |
| Converted | 3/7 | 4/14 |
| % Converted | 43% | 29% |
| Conceded | 1 | 5 |
| Saved | 1 | 4 |
| % Saved | 100% | 80% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 |
The Canadian broke his opponent 3 times with a 43% conversion rate. Gabriel pretty effective on his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 1 break points. Coric broke his opponent 4 times with a 29% conversion rate. Coric conceded his serve once and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.
| Diallo | |||
| Q1 Moreno De Alboran |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | |
| pts | 60-46 | 60-46 | |
| Total points | 106 | 106 | |
| Winners | 26 | 26 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 9 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 35/51 | 35/51 | |
| % 1st in | 69% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 26/35 | 26/35 | |
| % 1st pts | 74% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/16 | 12/16 | |
| % 2nd pts | 75% | 75% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 3/7 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 43% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Coric | |||
| Q1 Virtanen |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-71 7-5 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 33 | 33 | |
| pts | 108-95 | 108-95 | |
| Total points | 203 | 203 | |
| Winners | 52 | 52 | |
| %Winners | 48% | 48% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 69/97 | 69/97 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 52/69 | 52/69 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/28 | 16/28 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 57% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/14 | 4/14 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 29% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 80% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWLWL
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