Zeynep Sonmez and Varvara Lepchenko will clash against each other in the qualifications of the Mutua Madrid Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 1:30 pm on STADIUM 3. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Zeynep Sonmez who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Zeynep Sonmez is the pick to win this match.
Zeynep Sonmez -> 1.48
Varvara Lepchenko -> 2.5
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Prediction and head to head Zeynep Sonmez vs. Varvara Lepchenko
This will be the 2nd time that Zeynep Sonmez and Varvara Lepchenko fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Sonmez (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they played, Sonmez won 6-0 6-3 in the qualifications in Beijing back in 2024.
Zeynep Sonmez
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-9 | 6-7 | 2-1 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 41-25 | 19-9 | 12-10 | 4-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 54-28 | 4-4 | 23-10 | 17-8 | 6-4 | 4-2 |
| 2022 | 38-21 | 22-8 | 14-10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 21-19 | 2-3 | 14-12 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 77 (career-high), Sonmez reached the qualifications after defeating Leyre Romero Gormaz 7-6(8) 6-3.
In the qualifications, Sonmez had a good straight sets win against Romero Gormaz (7-68 6-3). During the match, Sonmez scored 79 points vs Romero Gormaz’s 75. Sonmez was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sonmez was unable to score even 1 ace during the match and she committed only 5 double faults. Zeynep Sonmez lost the serve 3 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Sonmez put 54% of her first serves in, winning 62% (28/45) of the points behind her 1st serve and 53% (20/38) on the 2nd serve. The Turk broke Romero Gormaz 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).
Sonmez has a solid record in the last 9 years having won 61% of her matches (216-138). 1-0 on clay in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Sonmez has an overall94-61 match record in the last 9 years on clay.
The Turk has an overall 8-8 win-loss record in 2025, 1-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Madrid
Sonmez has never competed in this tournament before.
Varvara Lepchenko
12 - 10win/loss
119
19
LWLWLWWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13-12 | 6-6 | 7-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 55-37 | 22-15 | 26-17 | 6-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-20 | 25-14 | 6-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| 2022 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-12 | 11-5 | 11-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 120, Lepchenko got to the qualifications after defeating Harriet Dart 6-4 6-7(3) 6-3.
In the qualifications, Lepchenko defeated Dart (6-4 6-73 6-3). During the match Lepchenko scored 103 points vs Dart’s 94. Lepchenko was quite aggressive to blast 34 winners.
About the serving games, Lepchenko struck 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Varvara Lepchenko lost the serve 5 times and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Lepchenko put 67% of her first serves in, winning 58% (34/59) of the points behind her 1st serve and 55% (16/29) on the 2nd serve. Lepchenko broke Dart 8 times after converting 50% of her break points (8/16).
Lepchenko’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in the Oeiras.
Varvara has an overall 12-10 win-loss record in 2025, 6-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sonmez | Lepchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 22 | 32 |
| Pts | 79-75 | 103-94 |
| Total Points | 154 | 197 |
| Winners | 28 | 34 |
| %Winners | 35% | 33% |
Both Sonmez and Lepchenko played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Varvara Lepchenko surrendered 1 set while Zeynep Sonmez hasn’t lost a set so far. Sonmez has played 1 set(s) less than Lepchenko (2 vs 3). Therefore, Sonmez played 10 games less than Lepchenko. Sonmez scored 28 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, The American scored 34 winners (33%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sonmez | Lepchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 0 | 2 |
| Avg per match | 0 | 2 |
| 1st in | 45/83 | 59/88 |
| %1st in | 54% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 28/45 | 34/59 |
| %1st pts | 62% | 58% |
| 2nd pts | 20/38 | 16/29 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 55% |
Sonmez didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Lepchenko scored 2 aces . Sonmez won 62% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Lepchenko won 58% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sonmez | Lepchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 8 |
| Converted | 5/7 | 8/16 |
| % Converted | 71% | 50% |
| Conceded | 4 | 8 |
| Saved | 1 | 3 |
| % Saved | 25% | 38% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 5 |
The Turk broke her opponent 5 times with a 71% conversion rate. The Turk lost her serve 3 times and she saved 25% of the break points that she conceded. Lepchenko broke her opponent 8 times with a 50% conversion rate. Varvara conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 38% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sonmez | |||
| Q1 Romero |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-68 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 22 | |
| pts | 79-75 | 79-75 | |
| Total points | 154 | 154 | |
| Winners | 28 | 28 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 45/83 | 45/83 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 54% | |
| 1st pts | 28/45 | 28/45 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 62% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/38 | 20/38 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 5/7 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 71% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | 1/4 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 25% | 25% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
| Lepchenko | |||
| Q1 Dart |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-73 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 32 | |
| pts | 103-94 | 103-94 | |
| Total points | 197 | 197 | |
| Winners | 34 | 34 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 33% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 59/88 | 59/88 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 34/59 | 34/59 | |
| % 1st pts | 58% | 58% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/29 | 16/29 | |
| % 2nd pts | 55% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 8 | 8 | |
| Converted | 8/16 | 8/16 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 8 | |
| Saved | 3/8 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 38% | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWLWLW
LWLWLWWWLW Tennis Scores in Madrid
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Upcoming matches in the draw
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- Viktoriya TomovaTomova – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
