Aryna Sabalenka and Jelena Ostapenko will square off in the final of the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 1:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.36
Jelena Ostapenko -> 3.14

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko

This will be the 4^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jelena Ostapenko play each other. The head to head is 3-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.

The last time that they competed against each other, Sabalenka won 6-2 6-4 in the quarter in Rome back in 2024.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko – Rome 15-May-2024

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 Aryna got to the final after beating Unknown Player bye, Anastasia Potapova w/o, Elise Mertens 6-4 6-1 and Jasmine Paolini 7-5 6-4.

In the semifinal, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Paolini (7-5 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 69 points vs Paolini’s 64. The Belarussian was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sabalenka scored 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 4 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 55% of her first serves in, winning 70% (26/37) of the points behind her 1st serve and 33% (10/30) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Paolini 6 times after converting 75% of her break points (6/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Belarussian hasn’t conceded yet a set in this event to conquer 56% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has an impressive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (399-172). 2-0 on clay in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an overall 79-39 match record in the last years on clay.

Her best result of the year was conquering the title in Brisbane where she overcame Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2.

Aryna has an aggregate 25-4 win-loss record in 2025, 2-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Stuttgart

Jelena Ostapenko

Ranked no. 24, Ostapenko reached the final after beating Dayana Yastremska 6-3 3-0 ret.

, Emma Navarro 7-5 3-6 6-2, Iga Swiatek 6-3 3-6 6-2 and Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4 6-4.

In the semifinal, Ostapenko had a good straight sets win against Alexandrova (6-4 6-4). During the match Ostapenko scored 64 points vs Alexandrova’s 58. Ostapenko was exceptionally aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Talking about serving, Ostapenko struck 5 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Jelena Ostapenko lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Ostapenko put 60% of her first serves in, winning 68% (27/40) of the points behind her 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the 2nd serve. Ostapenko broke Alexandrova 3 times after converting 50% of her break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Ostapenko has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.

Jelena’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Doha.

Ostapenko has a composed 11-9 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Stuttgart

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2018. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Ostapenko
Match played	2	4
Tot Set	4	11
Tot Games	39	87
Pts	133-106	312-267
Total Points	239	579
Winners	52	117
%Winners	39%	38%

Sabalenka played 2 matches while Ostapenko competed in 4 matches. At the moment, Jelena Ostapenko conceded 2 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t lost a set so far. Sabalenka has played 7 set(s) less than Ostapenko (4 vs 11). Therefore, Sabalenka played 48 games less than Ostapenko. Aryna scored 52 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Ostapenko managed to score 117 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Ostapenko
Aces	7	19
Avg per match	3.5	4.8
1st in	76/120	172/286
%1st in	63%	60%
1st pts	52/76	117/172
%1st pts	68%	68%
2nd pts	21/44	60/114
%2nd pts	48%	53%

Sabalenka managed to score 7 aces (3.5 per match). Ostapenko struck 19 aces (4.8 per match). Sabalenka won 68% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 48% of the points. On the other side, Ostapenko won 68% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Ostapenko
Won	10	18
Converted	10/16	18/35
% Converted	63%	51%
Conceded	12	28
Saved	7	19
% Saved	58%	68%
Times Broken	5	9

The Belarussian broke her opponents 10 times with a 63% conversion rate. Sabalenka dropped her serve 5 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded. Jelena broke her opponents 18 times with a 51% conversion rate. Jelena conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 68% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R2 Potapova	1/4 Mertens	1/2 Paolini	Total
Score	w/o	6-4 6-1	7-5 6-4
Tot Set	–	2	2	4
Tot Games	–	17	22	39
pts	–	64-42	69-64	133-106
Total points	–	106	133	239
Winners	–	26	26	52
%Winners	–	41%	38%	39%
SERVE
Aces	–	5	2	7
Double Faults	–	0	2	2
1st in	–	39/53	37/67	76/120
% 1st in	–	74%	55%	63%
1st pts	–	26/39	26/37	52/76
% 1st pts	–	67%	70%	68%
2nd pts	–	11/14	10/30	21/44
% 2nd pts	–	79%	33%	48%
Breaks
Won	–	4	6	10
Converted	–	4/8	6/8	10/16
Converted %	–	50%	75%	63%
Conceded	–	4	8	12
Saved	–	3/4	4/8	7
Saved %	–	75%	50%	42%
Times Broken	–	1	4	5

Ostapenko
	R1 Yastremska	R2 Navarro	1/4 Swiatek	1/2 Alexandrova	Total
Score	6-3 3-0 ret.	7-5 3-6 6-2	6-3 3-6 6-2	6-4 6-4
Tot Set	2	3	3	2	10
Tot Games	12	29	26	20	87
pts	53-34	109-99	86-76	64-58	312-267
Total points	87	208	162	122	579
Winners	17	45	28	27	117
%Winners	32%	41%	33%	42%	38%
SERVE
Aces	2	7	5	5	19
Double Faults	1	6	5	2	14
1st in	20/29	67/114	45/76	40/67	172/286
% 1st in	69%	59%	59%	60%	60%
1st pts	17/20	45/67	28/45	27/40	117/172
% 1st pts	85%	67%	62%	68%	68%
2nd pts	8/9	21/47	16/31	15/27	60/114
% 2nd pts	89%	45%	52%	56%	53%
Breaks
Won	3	6	6	3	18
Converted	3/9	6/9	6/11	3/6	18/35
Converted %	33%	67%	55%	50%	51%
Conceded	0	18	7	3	28
Saved	0/0	14/18	3/7	2/3	19
Saved %	–	78%	43%	67%	63%
Times Broken	0	4	4	1	9

Tennis Scores in Stuttgart

• Artem SmirnovSmirnov – Vladyslav OrlovOrlov (6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (3-0) – H2H and prediction