Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini will play each other in the semifinal of the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 3:30 pm on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.24
Jasmine Paolini -> 4.05
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jasmine Paolini
This will be the 7th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini clash against each other. The head to head is 4-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Sabalenka won 6-2 6-2 in the semifinal in Miami back in March 2025.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini – Miami 27-March-2025
Aryna Sabalenka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30-5 | 23-4 | 7-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Aryna reached the semifinal after beating Unknown Player bye, Anastasia Potapova w/o and Elise Mertens 6-4 6-1.
In the quarter, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Mertens (6-4 6-1). During the match, Sabalenka scored 64 points vs Mertens’s 42. The Belarussian was pretty aggressive to blast 26 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka blasted 5 aces and she was extremely solid in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve once and she saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 74% of her first serves in, winning 67% (26/39) of the points behind her 1st serve and 79% (11/14) on the 2nd serve. The Belarussian broke Mertens 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).
Sabalenka has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (398-172). 1-0 on clay in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate 78-39 record in the last years on clay.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2.
Sabalenka has a compiled 24-4 win-loss record in 2025, 1-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Stuttgart
Jasmine Paolini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-8 | 12-6 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 42-21 | 19-10 | 12-5 | 3-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-30 | 20-16 | 16-8 | 5-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-25 | 14-11 | 10-10 | 6-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-24 | 17-13 | 12-7 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Jasmine got to the semifinal after beating Eva Lys 6-2 6-1, Jule Niemeier 6-1 7-5 and Cori Gauff 6-4 6-3.
In the quarter, Jasmine had a good straight sets win against Gauff (6-4 6-3). During the match Paolini scored 69 points vs Gauff’s 58. Paolini was exceptionally aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about serving, Paolini scored just 1 ace during the entire match and she was very steady in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Jasmine Paolini lost the serve 3 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 73% of her first serves in, winning 54% (29/54) of the points behind her 1st serve and 60% (12/20) on the 2nd serve. Jasmine broke Gauff 5 times after converting 50% of her break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Paolini’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in Miami.
The Italian has an aggregate 15-6 win-loss record in 2025, 3-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Stuttgart
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2024. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 17 | 53 |
| Pts | 64-42 | 197-147 |
| Total Points | 106 | 344 |
| Winners | 26 | 80 |
| %Winners | 41% | 41% |
Sabalenka played 1 match while Paolini competed in 3 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Sabalenka has played 4 set(s) less than Paolini (2 vs 6). Therefore, Sabalenka played 36 games less than Paolini. The Belarussian scored 26 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Paolini bagged 80 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 1 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 0.3 |
| 1st in | 39/53 | 127/187 |
| %1st in | 74% | 68% |
| 1st pts | 26/39 | 80/127 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 63% |
| 2nd pts | 11/14 | 31/60 |
| %2nd pts | 79% | 52% |
Sabalenka made 5 aces . Paolini managed to score 1 ace (0.3 per match). Sabalenka won 67% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 79% of the points. On the other side, Paolini won 63% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 16 |
| Converted | 4/8 | 16/26 |
| % Converted | 50% | 62% |
| Conceded | 4 | 14 |
| Saved | 3 | 7 |
| % Saved | 75% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 7 |
Aryna broke her opponent 4 times with a 50% conversion rate. Aryna conceded her serve once and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded. The Italian broke her opponents 16 times with a 62% conversion rate. The Italian conceded her serve 7 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | ||||
| R2 Potapova |
1/4 Mertens |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | w/o | 6-4 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | – | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | – | 17 | 17 | |
| pts | – | 64-42 | 64-42 | |
| Total points | – | 106 | 106 | |
| Winners | – | 26 | 26 | |
| %Winners | – | 41% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | – | 5 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | – | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | – | 39/53 | 39/53 | |
| % 1st in | – | 74% | 74% | |
| 1st pts | – | 26/39 | 26/39 | |
| % 1st pts | – | 67% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | – | 11/14 | 11/14 | |
| % 2nd pts | – | 79% | 79% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | – | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | – | 4/8 | 4/8 | |
| Converted % | – | 50% | 50% | |
| Conceded | – | 4 | 4 | |
| Saved | – | 3/4 | 3 | |
| Saved % | – | 75% | 38% | |
| Times Broken | – | 1 | 1 | |
| Paolini | |||||
| R1 Lys |
R2 Niemeier |
1/4 Gauff |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | 6-1 7-5 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 19 | 19 | 53 | |
| pts | 63-37 | 65-52 | 69-58 | 197-147 | |
| Total points | 100 | 117 | 127 | 344 | |
| Winners | 21 | 30 | 29 | 80 | |
| %Winners | 33% | 46% | 42% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 29/50 | 44/63 | 54/74 | 127/187 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 70% | 73% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 21/29 | 30/44 | 29/54 | 80/127 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 68% | 54% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/21 | 8/19 | 12/20 | 31/60 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 42% | 60% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 5 | 16 | |
| Converted | 6/8 | 5/8 | 5/10 | 16/26 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 63% | 50% | 62% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | |
| Saved | 1/3 | 2/4 | 4/7 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 33% | 50% | 57% | 70% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWLWWWW
LWLWWWLWWW Tennis Scores in Stuttgart
- Gabriela Dabrowski/Erin RoutliffeDabrowski/Erin Routliffe – Timea Babos/Luisa StefaniBabos/Luisa Stefani (5-7 6-3 10-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Artem SmirnovSmirnov – Denis YevseyevYevseyev (6-4 2-6 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Vladyslav OrlovOrlov – Oleg DolgosheyevDolgosheyev (6-1 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (4-2) – H2H and prediction
- Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (5-5) – H2H and prediction
