Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune will fight against each other in the final of the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 4:00 pm on PISTA RAFA NADAL. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.25
Holger Rune -> 3.94
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Holger Rune
This will be the 4th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune square off. The head to head is 2-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Alcaraz won 7-6(3) 6-4 6-4 in the quarter in at the Wimbledon back in 2023.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Holger Rune – Wimbledon 12-July-2023
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24-5 | 10-4 | 9-1 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, the Spaniard got to the final after beating Ethan Quinn 6-2 7-6(6), Laslo Djere 6-2 6-4, Alex De Minaur 7-5 6-3 and Arthur Fils 6-2 6-4.
In the semifinal, Carlos had a good straight sets win against Fils (6-2 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 64 points vs Fils’s 45. The Spaniard was very aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about the service games, Alcaraz bagged 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz was pretty efficient on serve to win 77% (30/39) of his 1st serve and 64% (9/14) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Carlos broke Fils 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to conquer 57% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 80% of his matches (311-80). 9-0 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has an overall150-35 match record in the last 8 years on clay.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he beat Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0.
The Spaniard has a composed 24-4 win-loss record in 2025, 9-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Barcelona
Holger Rune
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-10 | 9-5 | 5-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-24 | 21-12 | 11-6 | 10-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-24 | 10-10 | 16-4 | 11-8 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-27 | 8-9 | 21-11 | 21-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 73-29 | 11-5 | 41-17 | 21-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 13, Rune reached the final after defeating Albert Ramos-Vinolas 7-5 6-4, Sebastian Baez 4-6 6-1 6-2, Casper Ruud 6-4 6-2 and Karen Khachanov 6-3 6-2.
In the semifinal, Holger had a good straight sets win against Khachanov (6-3 6-2). During the match Rune scored 56 points vs Khachanov’s 34. Holger was exceptionally aggressive to blast 22 winners.
About the serving games, Rune blasted 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Holger Rune was pretty efficient on serve to win 73% (22/30) of his 1st serve and 85% (11/13) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Dane broke Khachanov 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Holger has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
Holger’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Indian Wells.
The Dane has a composed 15-9 win-loss record in 2025, 4-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 78 | 82 |
| Pts | 283-213 | 276-219 |
| Total Points | 496 | 495 |
| Winners | 118 | 112 |
| %Winners | 42% | 41% |
Both Alcaraz and Rune played 4 matches. At the moment, Holger Rune conceded 1 set while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set(s) less than Rune (8 vs 9). Therefore, Alcaraz played 4 games less than Rune. Carlos scored 118 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Holger bagged 112 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 1st in | 163/230 | 159/249 |
| %1st in | 71% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 118/163 | 112/159 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 35/67 | 52/90 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 58% |
Alcaraz fired 6 aces (1.5 per match). Rune recorded 7 aces (1.8 per match). Alcaraz won 72% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Rune won 70% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 17 |
| Converted | 16/31 | 17/31 |
| % Converted | 52% | 55% |
| Conceded | 15 | 18 |
| Saved | 9 | 13 |
| % Saved | 60% | 72% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 5 |
The Spaniard broke his opponents 16 times with a 52% conversion rate. Carlos lost his serve 6 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded. Rune broke his opponents 17 times with a 55% conversion rate. Rune conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 72% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||||
| R1 Quinn |
R2 Djere |
1/4 De Minaur |
1/2 Fils |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 7-66 | 6-2 6-4 | 7-5 6-3 | 6-2 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 18 | 21 | 18 | 78 | |
| pts | 84-65 | 60-39 | 75-64 | 64-45 | 283-213 | |
| Total points | 149 | 99 | 139 | 109 | 496 | |
| Winners | 30 | 27 | 31 | 30 | 118 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 45% | 41% | 47% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 46/66 | 35/49 | 43/62 | 39/53 | 163/230 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 71% | 69% | 74% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 30/46 | 27/35 | 31/43 | 30/39 | 118/163 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 77% | 72% | 77% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/20 | 8/14 | 9/19 | 9/14 | 35/67 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 57% | 47% | 64% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | |
| Converted | 5/12 | 4/6 | 4/8 | 3/5 | 16/31 | |
| Converted % | 42% | 67% | 50% | 60% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | |
| Saved | 5/8 | 2/3 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 63% | 67% | 33% | 100% | 66% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Rune | ||||||
| R1 Ramos-Vinolas |
R2 Baez |
1/4 Ruud |
1/2 Khachanov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-4 | 4-6 6-1 6-2 | 6-4 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 25 | 18 | 17 | 82 | |
| pts | 76-63 | 81-72 | 63-50 | 56-34 | 276-219 | |
| Total points | 139 | 153 | 113 | 90 | 495 | |
| Winners | 34 | 33 | 23 | 22 | 112 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 41% | 37% | 39% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 47/71 | 53/80 | 29/55 | 30/43 | 159/249 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 66% | 53% | 70% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 34/47 | 33/53 | 23/29 | 22/30 | 112/159 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 62% | 79% | 73% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/24 | 14/27 | 13/26 | 11/13 | 52/90 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 52% | 50% | 85% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 17 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 6/11 | 4/7 | 4/6 | 17/31 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 55% | 57% | 67% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 18 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 7/10 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 13 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 70% | 75% | – | 55% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWWWWW
LWWWWWLLLW 
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