Felipe Meligeni Alves and Luka Pavlovic will play each other in the final of the Mexico City Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 2:30 pm on ESTADIO RAFAEL OSUNA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Felipe Meligeni Alves who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Felipe Meligeni Alves is the pick to win this match.
Felipe Meligeni Alves -> 1.72
Luka Pavlovic -> 2.03
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Felipe Meligeni Alves vs. Luka Pavlovic
There is no head to head record between Felipe Meligeni Alves and Luka Pavlovic since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.
Felipe Meligeni Alves
15 - 8win/loss
119
119
WWWWWLLWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-8 | 1-3 | 14-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 36-28 | 4-8 | 29-17 | 0-1 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-29 | 8-6 | 26-22 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-29 | 0-3 | 33-25 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-28 | 1-2 | 33-25 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 153, Felipe got to the final after beating Beibit Zhukayev 3-6 6-3 7-6(9), Darwin Blanch 7-6(4) 6-3, Alfredo Perez 6-3 6-2 and Marc-Andrea Huesler 3-6 6-3 7-6(3).
In the semifinal against Huesler, Felipe recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-3 7-63). During the match, Meligeni Alves scored 104 points vs Huesler’s 96. Meligeni Alves was pretty aggressive to blast 48 winners.
Regarding the service games, Meligeni Alves fired 6 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Overall, Felipe Meligeni Alves was quite effective on serve to win 76% (48/63) of his 1st serve and 58% (22/38) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Felipe broke Huesler twice after converting 25% of his break points (2/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Brazilian has conceded 2 set in this competition to conquer 54% of the points he played.
Meligeni Alves has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (326-217). 13-5 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Meligeni Alves has a composed 286-174 record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current season was winning the title the Merida Challenger where he overcame Juan Pablo Ficovich in the final 6-2 1-6 6-2.
Felipe has a composed 14-8 win-loss record in 2025, 13-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Mexico City Challenger
Luka Pavlovic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-6 | 0-0 | 16-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 44-18 | 0-0 | 42-16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-12 | 0-1 | 38-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 16-14 | 1-1 | 15-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 295 (career-high), Luka got to the final after defeating Stefano Napolitano 7-6(5) 7-6(6), Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 7-6(4) 6-3, Juan Pablo Varillas 6-3 0-6 6-4 and Adrian Mannarino 6-4 7-6(3).
In the semifinal, Pavlovic had a good straight sets win against Mannarino (6-4 7-63). During the match Pavlovic scored 83 points vs Mannarino’s 77. Luka was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.
About the serving games, Pavlovic recorded 10 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Overall, Luka Pavlovic was very effective on serve to win 83% (30/36) of his 1st serve and 51% (24/47) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Pavlovic broke Mannarino twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The French player has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points he played.
The French player best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in the Kigali 2 Challenger and the Mexico City Challenger.
Luka has a compiled 16-4 win-loss record in 2025, 16-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Meligeni Alves | Pavlovic |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 101 | 96 |
| Pts | 357-306 | 324-310 |
| Total Points | 663 | 634 |
| Winners | 152 | 115 |
| %Winners | 43% | 35% |
Both Meligeni Alves and Pavlovic played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Felipe Meligeni Alves dropped 2 sets, while Luka Pavlovic surrendered 1 set. Meligeni Alves has played 1 set more than Pavlovic (10 vs 9). Therefore, Meligeni Alves played 5 games more than Pavlovic. The Brazilian scored 152 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The French player made 115 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Meligeni Alves | Pavlovic |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 21 | 58 |
| Avg per match | 5.3 | 14.5 |
| 1st in | 201/324 | 143/336 |
| %1st in | 62% | 43% |
| 1st pts | 152/201 | 115/143 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 68/123 | 101/193 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 52% |
Meligeni Alves made 21 aces (5.3 per match). Pavlovic recorded 58 aces (14.5 per match). Meligeni Alves won 76% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Pavlovic won 80% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Meligeni Alves | Pavlovic |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 12 | 8 |
| Converted | 12/40 | 8/14 |
| % Converted | 30% | 57% |
| Conceded | 24 | 28 |
| Saved | 16 | 21 |
| % Saved | 67% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 8 | 7 |
The Brazilian broke his opponents 12 times with a 30% conversion rate. Felipe surrendered his serve 8 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. The French player broke his opponents 8 times with a 57% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Meligeni Alves | ||||||
| R1 Zhukayev |
R2 Blanch |
1/4 Perez |
1/2 Huesler |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-3 7-69 | 7-64 6-3 | 6-3 6-2 | 3-6 6-3 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 22 | 17 | 31 | 101 | |
| pts | 113-108 | 80-61 | 60-41 | 104-96 | 357-306 | |
| Total points | 221 | 141 | 101 | 200 | 663 | |
| Winners | 48 | 35 | 21 | 48 | 152 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 44% | 35% | 46% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 8 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 68/107 | 46/67 | 24/49 | 63/101 | 201/324 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 69% | 49% | 62% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 48/68 | 35/46 | 21/24 | 48/63 | 152/201 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 76% | 88% | 76% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/39 | 11/21 | 16/25 | 22/38 | 68/123 | |
| % 2nd pts | 49% | 52% | 64% | 58% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | |
| Converted | 4/13 | 3/11 | 3/8 | 2/8 | 12/40 | |
| Converted % | 31% | 27% | 38% | 25% | 30% | |
| Conceded | 9 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 24 | |
| Saved | 5/9 | 3/5 | 1/1 | 7/9 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 56% | 60% | 100% | 78% | 74% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | |
| Pavlovic | ||||||
| R1 Napolitano |
R2 Pacheco |
1/4 Pablo Patino-Samudio |
1/2 Mannarino |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 7-66 | 7-64 6-3 | 6-3 0-6 6-4 | 6-4 7-63 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 22 | 25 | 23 | 96 | |
| pts | 81-80 | 73-65 | 87-88 | 83-77 | 324-310 | |
| Total points | 161 | 138 | 175 | 160 | 634 | |
| Winners | 33 | 24 | 28 | 30 | 115 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 33% | 32% | 36% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 20 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 58 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 29 | |
| 1st in | 42/86 | 27/67 | 38/100 | 36/83 | 143/336 | |
| % 1st in | 49% | 40% | 38% | 43% | 43% | |
| 1st pts | 33/42 | 24/27 | 28/38 | 30/36 | 115/143 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 89% | 74% | 83% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 27/44 | 22/40 | 28/62 | 24/47 | 101/193 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 55% | 45% | 51% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Converted | 1/1 | 2/6 | 3/3 | 2/4 | 8/14 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 33% | 100% | 50% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 28 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 2/3 | 8/12 | 9/10 | 21 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 67% | 67% | 90% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWLLWWW
LLWWWWLWWW 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Luka PavlovicPavlovic – Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues AlvesMeligeni Rodrigues Alves (0-0) – H2H and prediction
