Emilio Nava and Liam Draxl will fight against each other in the final of the Sarasota Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 1:00 pm on NICK BOLLETTIERI COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Emilio Nava who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Emilio Nava is the pick to win this match.
Emilio Nava -> 1.32
Liam Draxl -> 3.14

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Prediction and head to head Emilio Nava vs. Liam Draxl

There is no head to head record between Emilio Nava and Liam Draxl since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Emilio Nava

Ranked no. 169, Emilio reached the final after defeating Chris Rodesch 6-4 6-4, Gabi Adrian Boitan 6-3 6-2, Tomas Barrios Vera 7-5 7-6(3) and Eliot Spizzirri 7-6(6) 6-4.

In the semifinal, Emilio had a good straight sets win against Spizzirri (7-6⁶ 6-4). During the match, Nava scored 70 points vs Spizzirri’s 68. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Talking about the service games, Nava managed to score 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Emilio Nava was very efficient on serve to win 73% (32/44) of his 1st serve and 65% (13/20) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Emilio broke Spizzirri twice after converting 67% of his break points (2/3).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American hasn’t lost yet a set in this competition to win 54% of the points he played.

Nava has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 60% of his matches (213-143). 26-7 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Nava has an overall95-44 win-loss record in the last 8 years on clay.

His best result of the current year was winning the title the Asuncion Challenger where he defeated Thiago Moura Monteiro in the final 7-5 6-3 and the Concepcion Challenger where he beat Nicolas Kicker in the final 6-1 7-6(3).

The American has a composed 26-9 win-loss record in 2025, 26-7 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Sarasota Challenger

Emilio has never competed in this tournament before.

Liam Draxl

Ranked no. 176, Draxl reached the final after defeating Gonzalo Bueno 7-5 6-4, Patrick Maloney 4-6 6-4 6-0, Andres Andrade 7-5 7-6(4) and Federico Agustin Gomez 3-6 6-4 6-0.

In the semifinal against Agustin Gomez, The Canadian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-4 6-0). During the match Draxl scored 84 points vs Agustin Gomez’s 72. Liam was quite aggressive to blast 37 winners.

About the serving games, Draxl was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 2 double faults. Liam Draxl lost the serve 4 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Draxl put 70% of his first serves in, winning 69% (37/54) of the points behind his 1st serve and 30% (7/23) on the 2nd serve. Draxl broke Agustin Gomez 7 times after converting 58% of his break points (7/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Draxl has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

Draxl’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in the Oeiras 1 Challenger and the Oeiras 3 Challenger.

Liam has an aggregate 20-9 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Nava	Draxl
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	8	10
Tot Games	85	98
Pts	286-241	344-287
Total Points	527	631
Winners	121	133
%Winners	42%	39%

Both Nava and Draxl played 4 matches. At the moment, Liam Draxl lost 2 sets while Emilio Nava hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Nava has played 2 set(s) less than Draxl (8 vs 10). Therefore, Nava played 13 games less than Draxl. Emilio scored 121 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, The Canadian managed to score 133 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Nava	Draxl
Aces	24	10
Avg per match	6	2.5
1st in	161/249	196/300
%1st in	65%	65%
1st pts	121/161	133/196
%1st pts	75%	68%
2nd pts	48/88	50/104
%2nd pts	55%	48%

Nava made 24 aces (6 per match). Draxl fired 10 aces (2.5 per match). Nava won 75% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Draxl won 68% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Nava	Draxl
Won	13	23
Converted	13/31	23/48
% Converted	42%	48%
Conceded	14	39
Saved	8	25
% Saved	57%	64%
Times Broken	6	14

The American broke his opponents 13 times with a 42% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded. Draxl broke his opponents 23 times with a 48% conversion rate. The Canadian conceded his serve 14 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.

Nava
	R1 Rodesch	R2 Adrian	1/4 Tomas Barrios Vera	1/2 Spizzirri	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	6-3 6-2	7-5 7-63	7-66 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	20	17	25	23	85
pts	65-52	61-43	90-78	70-68	286-241
Total points	117	104	168	138	527
Winners	26	28	35	32	121
%Winners	40%	46%	39%	46%	42%
SERVE
Aces	9	5	6	4	24
Double Faults	4	2	8	2	16
1st in	33/57	38/52	46/76	44/64	161/249
% 1st in	58%	73%	61%	69%	65%
1st pts	26/33	28/38	35/46	32/44	121/161
% 1st pts	79%	74%	76%	73%	75%
2nd pts	14/24	7/14	14/30	13/20	48/88
% 2nd pts	58%	50%	47%	65%	55%
Breaks
Won	3	4	4	2	13
Converted	3/4	4/11	4/13	2/3	13/31
Converted %	75%	36%	31%	67%	42%
Conceded	1	2	7	4	14
Saved	0/1	1/2	4/7	3/4	8
Saved %	0%	50%	57%	75%	46%
Times Broken	1	1	3	1	6

Draxl
	R1 Bueno	R2 Maloney	1/4 Andrade	1/2 Agustin	Total
Score	7-5 6-4	4-6 6-4 6-0	7-5 7-64	3-6 6-4 6-0
Tot Set	2	3	2	3	10
Tot Games	22	26	25	25	98
pts	86-70	85-65	89-80	84-72	344-287
Total points	156	150	169	156	631
Winners	28	32	36	37	133
%Winners	33%	38%	40%	44%	39%
SERVE
Aces	2	6	2	0	10
Double Faults	3	6	7	2	18
1st in	50/67	44/76	48/80	54/77	196/300
% 1st in	75%	58%	60%	70%	65%
1st pts	28/50	32/44	36/48	37/54	133/196
% 1st pts	56%	73%	75%	69%	68%
2nd pts	10/17	17/32	16/32	7/23	50/104
% 2nd pts	59%	53%	50%	30%	48%
Breaks
Won	7	6	3	7	23
Converted	7/19	6/11	3/6	7/12	23/48
Converted %	37%	55%	50%	58%	48%
Conceded	11	11	7	10	39
Saved	6/11	8/11	5/7	6/10	25
Saved %	55%	73%	71%	60%	65%
Times Broken	5	3	2	4	14

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Emilio NavaNava – Liam DraxlDraxl (0-0) – H2H and prediction