Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti will clash against each other in the final of the ATP1000 Master in Monte-Carlo for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 12:00 pm on COURT RAINIER III. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.285
Lorenzo Musetti -> 3.78
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti
This will be the 6th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti play each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Alcaraz won 6-3 6-3 in the 4th round in Miami back in 2024.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti – Miami 26-March-2024
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 42-5 | 10-4 | 22-1 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Alcaraz reached the final after beating Unknown Player bye, Francisco Cerundolo 3-6 6-0 6-1, Daniel Altmaier 6-3 6-1, Arthur Fils 4-6 7-5 6-3 and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 7-6(2) 6-4.
In the semifinal, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Davidovich Fokina (7-62 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 97 points vs Davidovich Fokina’s 85. Carlos was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about the service games, Alcaraz wasn’t able to score even 1 ace in the match and he committed only 1 double fault. Carlos Alcaraz lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Alcaraz put 66% of his first serves in, winning 65% (31/48) of the points behind his 1st serve and 64% (16/25) on the 2nd serve. Alcaraz broke Davidovich Fokina 3 times after converting 16% of his break points (3/19).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has dropped 2 set in this event to win 55% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 8 years having won 79% of his matches (306-80). 4-0 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has an aggregate145-35 win-loss record in the last 8 years on clay.
His best result of the year was winning the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2.
Carlos has a composed 19-4 win-loss record in 2025, 4-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Lorenzo Musetti
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25-8 | 6-4 | 19-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-30 | 13-12 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 12-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 16, Lorenzo reached the final after defeating Bu Yunchaokete 4-6 7-5 6-3, Jiri Lehecka 1-6 7-5 6-2, Matteo Berrettini 6-3 6-3, Stefanos Tsitsipas 1-6 6-3 6-4 and Alex De Minaur 1-6 6-4 7-6(4).
In the semifinal against De Minaur, Lorenzo recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-4 7-64).During the match Musetti scored less points (9) than De Minaur. In fact, the world no. 3 won 89 points vs De Minaur’s. That means that Musetti was more focused during the important points. Musetti was quite aggressive to blast 37 winners.
About the serving games, Musetti scored 2 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Lorenzo Musetti lost the serve 7 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 67% of his first serves in, winning 60% (37/62) of the points behind his 1st serve and 39% (12/31) on the 2nd serve. Lorenzo broke De Minaur 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Musetti has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
Lorenzo’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in Carlo.
Musetti has an overall 12-4 win-loss record in 2025, 6-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 10 | 14 |
| Tot Games | 92 | 132 |
| Pts | 343-285 | 448-416 |
| Total Points | 628 | 864 |
| Winners | 123 | 192 |
| %Winners | 36% | 43% |
Alcaraz played 4 matches while Musetti competed in 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz dropped 2 sets, while Lorenzo Musetti conceded 4 sets. Alcaraz has played 4 set(s) less than Musetti (10 vs 14). Therefore, Alcaraz played 40 games less than Musetti. Alcaraz scored 123 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Lorenzo managed to score 192 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| 1st in | 186/309 | 296/411 |
| %1st in | 60% | 72% |
| 1st pts | 123/186 | 192/296 |
| %1st pts | 66% | 65% |
| 2nd pts | 69/123 | 64/115 |
| %2nd pts | 56% | 56% |
Alcaraz made 4 aces (1 per match). Musetti scored 7 aces (1.4 per match). Alcaraz won 66% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Musetti won 65% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 19 | 18 |
| Converted | 19/48 | 18/49 |
| % Converted | 40% | 37% |
| Conceded | 35 | 37 |
| Saved | 26 | 21 |
| % Saved | 74% | 57% |
| Times Broken | 9 | 16 |
Carlos broke his opponents 19 times with a 40% conversion rate. Alcaraz surrendered his serve 9 times and he saved 74% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 18 times with a 37% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 16 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||||
| R2 Cerundolo |
R3 Altmaier |
1/4 Fils |
1/2 Davidovich Fokina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-0 6-1 | 6-3 6-1 | 4-6 7-5 6-3 | 7-62 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 16 | 31 | 23 | 92 | |
| pts | 76-55 | 63-48 | 107-97 | 97-85 | 343-285 | |
| Total points | 131 | 111 | 204 | 182 | 628 | |
| Winners | 28 | 21 | 43 | 31 | 123 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 33% | 40% | 32% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 41/76 | 35/59 | 62/101 | 48/73 | 186/309 | |
| % 1st in | 54% | 59% | 61% | 66% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 28/41 | 21/35 | 43/62 | 31/48 | 123/186 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 60% | 69% | 65% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/35 | 15/24 | 19/39 | 16/25 | 69/123 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 63% | 49% | 64% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 19 | |
| Converted | 6/8 | 5/7 | 5/14 | 3/19 | 19/48 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 71% | 36% | 16% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 35 | |
| Saved | 5/7 | 9/10 | 7/11 | 5/7 | 26 | |
| Saved % | 71% | 90% | 64% | 71% | 74% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | |
| Musetti | |||||||
| R1 Yunchaokete |
R2 Lehecka |
R3 Berrettini |
1/4 Tsitsipas |
1/2 De Minaur |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 7-5 6-3 | 1-6 7-5 6-2 | 6-3 6-3 | 1-6 6-3 6-4 | 1-6 6-4 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 27 | 18 | 26 | 30 | 132 | |
| pts | 100-91 | 96-85 | 67-51 | 96-91 | 89-98 | 448-416 | |
| Total points | 191 | 181 | 118 | 187 | 187 | 864 | |
| Winners | 49 | 32 | 27 | 47 | 37 | 192 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 33% | 40% | 49% | 42% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 69/90 | 53/76 | 37/50 | 75/102 | 62/93 | 296/411 | |
| % 1st in | 77% | 70% | 74% | 74% | 67% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 49/69 | 32/53 | 27/37 | 47/75 | 37/62 | 192/296 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 60% | 73% | 63% | 60% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/21 | 16/23 | 10/13 | 15/27 | 12/31 | 64/115 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 70% | 77% | 56% | 39% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 4/18 | 3/10 | 3/6 | 5/9 | 18/49 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 22% | 30% | 50% | 56% | 37% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 12 | 37 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 14/17 | 5/12 | 21 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 33% | – | 82% | 42% | 39% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 16 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
LWWWWWLWWW 
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