Adrian Mannarino and Luka Pavlovic will play each other in the semifinal of the Mexico City Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 7:30 pm on ESTADIO RAFAEL OSUNA. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Luka Pavlovic who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Luka Pavlovic is the pick to win this match.
Luka Pavlovic -> 1.65
Adrian Mannarino -> 2.13

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Prediction and head to head Adrian Mannarino vs. Luka Pavlovic

There is no head to head record between Adrian Mannarino and Luka Pavlovic since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Adrian Mannarino

Ranked no. 134, Adrian reached the semifinal after beating Aidan Mayo 7-6(5) 6-4, Nicolas Mejia 6-2 2-6 6-2 and Bernard Tomic 5-7 6-1 6-1.

In the quarter against Tomic, Mannarino recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 6-1 6-1). During the match, Mannarino scored 88 points vs Tomic’s 65. The French player was very aggressive to blast 37 winners.

Talking about the service games, Mannarino managed to score 3 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Adrian Mannarino was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 76% (37/49) of his 1st serve and 58% (14/24) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The French player broke Tomic 5 times after converting 36% of his break points (5/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Mannarino has lost 2 set in this event to conquer 55% of the points he played.

Mannarino has won exactly 50% of his matches (274-272) in the last 10 years. 5-2 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Mannarino has a compiled 26-55 match record in the last years on clay.

Adrian has a compiled 7-14 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Mexico City Challenger

Luka Pavlovic

Ranked no. 295 (career-high), the French player reached the semifinal after defeating Stefano Napolitano 7-6(5) 7-6(6), Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 7-6(4) 6-3 and Juan Pablo Varillas 6-3 0-6 6-4.

In the quarter, Pavlovic defeated Pablo Patino-Samudio (6-3 0-6 6-4).During the match Pavlovic scored less points (1) than Pablo Patino-Samudio. In fact, the world no. 134 won 87 points vs Pablo Patino-Samudio’s. That means that Pavlovic was more focused during the important points. Luka was pretty aggressive to blast 28 winners.

About the serving games, Pavlovic managed to score 10 aces and he was not very solid on his 2nd serve to score 11 double faults. Luka Pavlovic lost the serve 4 times and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Pavlovic put 38% of his first serves in, winning 74% (28/38) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (28/62) on the 2nd serve. The French player was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Pablo Patino-Samudio 3 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

The French player has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points he played.

The French player best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in the Kigali 2 Challenger.

Luka has an aggregate 15-4 win-loss record in 2025, 15-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Mannarino	Pavlovic
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	8	7
Tot Games	73	73
Pts	245-200	241-233
Total Points	445	474
Winners	96	85
%Winners	39%	35%

Both Mannarino and Pavlovic played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Adrian Mannarino conceded 2 sets, while Luka Pavlovic surrendered 1 set. Mannarino has played 1 set more than Pavlovic (8 vs 7). However, it is interesting to notice that they played the same amount of games (73). Mannarino scored 96 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, The French player managed to score 85 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Mannarino	Pavlovic
Aces	8	48
Avg per match	2.7	16
1st in	138/216	107/253
%1st in	64%	42%
1st pts	96/138	85/107
%1st pts	70%	79%
2nd pts	39/78	77/146
%2nd pts	50%	53%

Mannarino fired 8 aces (2.7 per match). Pavlovic recorded 48 aces (16 per match). Mannarino won 70% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Pavlovic won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Mannarino	Pavlovic
Won	16	6
Converted	16/35	6/10
% Converted	46%	60%
Conceded	20	18
Saved	11	12
% Saved	55%	67%
Times Broken	9	6

The French player broke his opponents 16 times with a 46% conversion rate. Mannarino dropped his serve 9 times and he saved 55% of the break points that he conceded. Luka broke his opponents 6 times with a 60% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.

Mannarino
	R1 Mayo	R2 Mejia	1/4 Tomic	Total
Score	7-65 6-4	6-2 2-6 6-2	5-7 6-1 6-1
Tot Set	2	3	3	8
Tot Games	23	24	26	73
pts	74-67	83-68	88-65	245-200
Total points	141	151	153	445
Winners	29	30	37	96
%Winners	39%	36%	42%	39%
SERVE
Aces	4	1	3	8
Double Faults	5	3	4	12
1st in	36/70	53/73	49/73	138/216
% 1st in	51%	73%	67%	64%
1st pts	29/36	30/53	37/49	96/138
% 1st pts	81%	57%	76%	70%
2nd pts	15/34	10/20	14/24	39/78
% 2nd pts	44%	50%	58%	50%
Breaks
Won	4	7	5	16
Converted	4/9	7/12	5/14	16/35
Converted %	44%	58%	36%	46%
Conceded	5	11	4	20
Saved	2/5	6/11	3/4	11
Saved %	40%	55%	75%	57%
Times Broken	3	5	1	9

Pavlovic
	R1 Napolitano	R2 Pacheco	1/4 Pablo Patino-Samudio	Total
Score	7-65 7-66	7-64 6-3	6-3 0-6 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	3	7
Tot Games	26	22	25	73
pts	81-80	73-65	87-88	241-233
Total points	161	138	175	474
Winners	33	24	28	85
%Winners	41%	33%	32%	35%
SERVE
Aces	20	18	10	48
Double Faults	4	6	11	21
1st in	42/86	27/67	38/100	107/253
% 1st in	49%	40%	38%	42%
1st pts	33/42	24/27	28/38	85/107
% 1st pts	79%	89%	74%	79%
2nd pts	27/44	22/40	28/62	77/146
% 2nd pts	61%	55%	45%	53%
Breaks
Won	1	2	3	6
Converted	1/1	2/6	3/3	6/10
Converted %	100%	33%	100%	60%
Conceded	3	3	12	18
Saved	2/3	2/3	8/12	12
Saved %	67%	67%	67%	67%
Times Broken	1	1	4	6

Tennis Scores in Mexico City Challenger

• Ryan Seggerman/Patrik TrhacSeggerman/Patrik Trhac – Gonzalo Escobar/Diego HidalgoEscobar/Diego Hidalgo (7-6³ 7-6⁵) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues AlvesMeligeni Rodrigues Alves – Marc-Andrea HueslerHuesler (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Luka PavlovicPavlovic – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (0-0) – H2H and prediction