Adrian Mannarino and Luka Pavlovic will play each other in the semifinal of the Mexico City Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 7:30 pm on ESTADIO RAFAEL OSUNA. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Luka Pavlovic who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Luka Pavlovic is the pick to win this match.
Luka Pavlovic -> 1.65
Adrian Mannarino -> 2.13
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Prediction and head to head Adrian Mannarino vs. Luka Pavlovic
There is no head to head record between Adrian Mannarino and Luka Pavlovic since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Adrian Mannarino
7 - 15win/loss
124
17
LLWWWLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7-16 | 2-9 | 5-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 17-33 | 9-17 | 0-5 | 7-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-29 | 15-13 | 2-8 | 15-4 | 12-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 31-32 | 18-14 | 1-6 | 8-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 14-26 | 5-7 | 0-7 | 5-8 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 134, Adrian reached the semifinal after beating Aidan Mayo 7-6(5) 6-4, Nicolas Mejia 6-2 2-6 6-2 and Bernard Tomic 5-7 6-1 6-1.
In the quarter against Tomic, Mannarino recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 6-1 6-1). During the match, Mannarino scored 88 points vs Tomic’s 65. The French player was very aggressive to blast 37 winners.
Talking about the service games, Mannarino managed to score 3 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Adrian Mannarino was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 76% (37/49) of his 1st serve and 58% (14/24) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The French player broke Tomic 5 times after converting 36% of his break points (5/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Mannarino has lost 2 set in this event to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Mannarino has won exactly 50% of his matches (274-272) in the last 10 years. 5-2 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Mannarino has a compiled 26-55 match record in the last years on clay.
Adrian has a compiled 7-14 win-loss record in 2025, 5-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Mexico City Challenger
Luka Pavlovic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-6 | 0-0 | 16-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 44-18 | 0-0 | 42-16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 39-12 | 0-1 | 38-10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 11-12 | 3-2 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 16-14 | 1-1 | 15-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 295 (career-high), the French player reached the semifinal after defeating Stefano Napolitano 7-6(5) 7-6(6), Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 7-6(4) 6-3 and Juan Pablo Varillas 6-3 0-6 6-4.
In the quarter, Pavlovic defeated Pablo Patino-Samudio (6-3 0-6 6-4).During the match Pavlovic scored less points (1) than Pablo Patino-Samudio. In fact, the world no. 134 won 87 points vs Pablo Patino-Samudio’s. That means that Pavlovic was more focused during the important points. Luka was pretty aggressive to blast 28 winners.
About the serving games, Pavlovic managed to score 10 aces and he was not very solid on his 2nd serve to score 11 double faults. Luka Pavlovic lost the serve 4 times and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Pavlovic put 38% of his first serves in, winning 74% (28/38) of the points behind his 1st serve and 45% (28/62) on the 2nd serve. The French player was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Pablo Patino-Samudio 3 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
The French player has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points he played.
The French player best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in the Kigali 2 Challenger.
Luka has an aggregate 15-4 win-loss record in 2025, 15-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Mannarino | Pavlovic |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 73 | 73 |
| Pts | 245-200 | 241-233 |
| Total Points | 445 | 474 |
| Winners | 96 | 85 |
| %Winners | 39% | 35% |
Both Mannarino and Pavlovic played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Adrian Mannarino conceded 2 sets, while Luka Pavlovic surrendered 1 set. Mannarino has played 1 set more than Pavlovic (8 vs 7). However, it is interesting to notice that they played the same amount of games (73). Mannarino scored 96 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, The French player managed to score 85 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Mannarino | Pavlovic |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 8 | 48 |
| Avg per match | 2.7 | 16 |
| 1st in | 138/216 | 107/253 |
| %1st in | 64% | 42% |
| 1st pts | 96/138 | 85/107 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 39/78 | 77/146 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 53% |
Mannarino fired 8 aces (2.7 per match). Pavlovic recorded 48 aces (16 per match). Mannarino won 70% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Pavlovic won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Mannarino | Pavlovic |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 16 | 6 |
| Converted | 16/35 | 6/10 |
| % Converted | 46% | 60% |
| Conceded | 20 | 18 |
| Saved | 11 | 12 |
| % Saved | 55% | 67% |
| Times Broken | 9 | 6 |
The French player broke his opponents 16 times with a 46% conversion rate. Mannarino dropped his serve 9 times and he saved 55% of the break points that he conceded. Luka broke his opponents 6 times with a 60% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.
| Mannarino | |||||
| R1 Mayo |
R2 Mejia |
1/4 Tomic |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 6-4 | 6-2 2-6 6-2 | 5-7 6-1 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 24 | 26 | 73 | |
| pts | 74-67 | 83-68 | 88-65 | 245-200 | |
| Total points | 141 | 151 | 153 | 445 | |
| Winners | 29 | 30 | 37 | 96 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 36% | 42% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 3 | 4 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 36/70 | 53/73 | 49/73 | 138/216 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 73% | 67% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 29/36 | 30/53 | 37/49 | 96/138 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 57% | 76% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/34 | 10/20 | 14/24 | 39/78 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 7 | 5 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 7/12 | 5/14 | 16/35 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 58% | 36% | 46% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 11 | 4 | 20 | |
| Saved | 2/5 | 6/11 | 3/4 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 40% | 55% | 75% | 57% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9 | |
| Pavlovic | |||||
| R1 Napolitano |
R2 Pacheco |
1/4 Pablo Patino-Samudio |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 7-66 | 7-64 6-3 | 6-3 0-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 26 | 22 | 25 | 73 | |
| pts | 81-80 | 73-65 | 87-88 | 241-233 | |
| Total points | 161 | 138 | 175 | 474 | |
| Winners | 33 | 24 | 28 | 85 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 33% | 32% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 20 | 18 | 10 | 48 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 6 | 11 | 21 | |
| 1st in | 42/86 | 27/67 | 38/100 | 107/253 | |
| % 1st in | 49% | 40% | 38% | 42% | |
| 1st pts | 33/42 | 24/27 | 28/38 | 85/107 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 89% | 74% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 27/44 | 22/40 | 28/62 | 77/146 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 55% | 45% | 53% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | |
| Converted | 1/1 | 2/6 | 3/3 | 6/10 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 33% | 100% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | 12 | 18 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 2/3 | 8/12 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 67% | 67% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWLWLWL
LLWWWWLWWW Tennis Scores in Mexico City Challenger
- Ryan Seggerman/Patrik TrhacSeggerman/Patrik Trhac – Gonzalo Escobar/Diego HidalgoEscobar/Diego Hidalgo (7-63 7-65) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues AlvesMeligeni Rodrigues Alves – Marc-Andrea HueslerHuesler (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Luka PavlovicPavlovic – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (0-0) – H2H and prediction
