Alex De Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti will face off in the semifinal of the ATP1000 Master in Monte-Carlo for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 2:30 pm on COURT RAINIER III. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.69
Lorenzo Musetti -> 2.17
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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Lorenzo Musetti
This will be the 3rd time that Alex De Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti square off. The head to head is 1-1 for De Minaur and Musetti (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they played, Musetti won 1-6 6-4 6-2 in the 1st round in London back in 2024.
Highlights Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex De Minaur – London 18-June-2024
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22-8 | 12-5 | 5-2 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 10, Alex got to the semifinal after defeating Unknown Player bye, Tomas Machac 3-6 6-0 6-3, Daniil Medvedev 6-2 6-2 and Grigor Dimitrov 6-0 6-0.
In the quarter, De Minaur had a good straight sets win against Dimitrov (6-0 6-0). During the match, De Minaur scored 48 points vs Dimitrov’s 15. The Australian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 12 winners.
Regarding the service games, De Minaur was unable to score even 1 ace during the match and he was very consistent in conceding no double faults. Alex De Minaur was exceptionally effective on serve to win 75% (12/16) of his 1st serve and 80% (12/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. De Minaur broke Dimitrov 6 times after converting 75% of his break points (6/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Australian has dropped 1 set in this event to conquer 61% of the points he played.
De Minaur has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (379-211). 3-0 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, De Minaur has a compiled 62-48 match record in the last years on clay.
Alex’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Rotterdam.
Alex has an overall 20-6 win-loss record in 2025, 3-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Lorenzo Musetti
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-5 | 6-4 | 6-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-30 | 13-12 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 12-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 16, the Italian got to the semifinal after defeating Bu Yunchaokete 4-6 7-5 6-3, Jiri Lehecka 1-6 7-5 6-2, Matteo Berrettini 6-3 6-3 and Stefanos Tsitsipas 1-6 6-3 6-4.
In the quarter against Tsitsipas, Lorenzo recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-3 6-4). During the match Musetti scored 96 points vs Tsitsipas’s 91. The Italian was very aggressive to blast 47 winners.
About the serving games, Musetti scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Lorenzo Musetti lost the serve 3 times and he saved 14 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 74% of his first serves in, winning 63% (47/75) of the points behind his 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the 2nd serve. Lorenzo broke Tsitsipas 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Musetti has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Musetti has an overall 11-4 win-loss record in 2025, 5-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 7 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 52 | 102 |
| Pts | 192-124 | 359-318 |
| Total Points | 316 | 677 |
| Winners | 59 | 155 |
| %Winners | 31% | 43% |
De Minaur played 3 matches while Musetti competed in 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alex De Minaur dropped 1 set, while Lorenzo Musetti surrendered 3 sets. De Minaur has played 4 set(s) less than Musetti (7 vs 11). Therefore, De Minaur played 50 games less than Musetti. De Minaur scored 59 winners (31% of the total points). On the other side, Lorenzo made 155 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 5 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 1.3 |
| 1st in | 82/157 | 234/318 |
| %1st in | 52% | 74% |
| 1st pts | 59/82 | 155/234 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 44/75 | 52/84 |
| %2nd pts | 59% | 62% |
De Minaur struck 6 aces (2 per match). Musetti struck 5 aces (1.3 per match). De Minaur won 72% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Musetti won 66% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 62% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 17 | 13 |
| Converted | 17/25 | 13/40 |
| % Converted | 68% | 33% |
| Conceded | 9 | 25 |
| Saved | 5 | 16 |
| % Saved | 56% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 9 |
The Australian broke his opponents 17 times with a 68% conversion rate. Alex surrendered his serve 4 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded. Lorenzo broke his opponents 13 times with a 33% conversion rate. Musetti conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.
| De Minaur | |||||
| R2 Machac |
R3 Medvedev |
1/4 Dimitrov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-0 6-3 | 6-2 6-2 | 6-0 6-0 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 16 | 12 | 52 | |
| pts | 85-70 | 59-39 | 48-15 | 192-124 | |
| Total points | 155 | 98 | 63 | 316 | |
| Winners | 33 | 14 | 12 | 59 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 24% | 25% | 31% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 42/80 | 24/46 | 16/31 | 82/157 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 52% | 52% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 33/42 | 14/24 | 12/16 | 59/82 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 58% | 75% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/38 | 12/22 | 12/15 | 44/75 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 55% | 80% | 59% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 7 | 6 | 17 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 7/12 | 6/8 | 17/25 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 58% | 75% | 68% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 4 | 0 | 9 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 25% | – | 35% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Musetti | ||||||
| R1 Yunchaokete |
R2 Lehecka |
R3 Berrettini |
1/4 Tsitsipas |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 7-5 6-3 | 1-6 7-5 6-2 | 6-3 6-3 | 1-6 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 27 | 18 | 26 | 102 | |
| pts | 100-91 | 96-85 | 67-51 | 96-91 | 359-318 | |
| Total points | 191 | 181 | 118 | 187 | 677 | |
| Winners | 49 | 32 | 27 | 47 | 155 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 33% | 40% | 49% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 69/90 | 53/76 | 37/50 | 75/102 | 234/318 | |
| % 1st in | 77% | 70% | 74% | 74% | 74% | |
| 1st pts | 49/69 | 32/53 | 27/37 | 47/75 | 155/234 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 60% | 73% | 63% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/21 | 16/23 | 10/13 | 15/27 | 52/84 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 70% | 77% | 56% | 62% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 4/18 | 3/10 | 3/6 | 13/40 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 22% | 30% | 50% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 25 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 14/17 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 33% | – | 82% | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWWWLWW
LWWWWWLWWL Tennis Scores in Monte Carlo Rolex Masters
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Julian Cash/Lloyd GlasspoolCash/Lloyd Glasspool – Kevin Krawietz/Tim PuetzKrawietz/Tim Puetz (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (6-0 6-0) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (1-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Harri Heliovaara/Henry PattenHeliovaara/Henry Patten – Rafael Matos/Joran VliegenMatos/Joran Vliegen (6-1 3-6 10-5) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Arthur FilsFils (4-6 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Alex De Minaur/Jan-Lennard StruffDe Minaur/Jan-Lennard Struff (6-3 3-6 10-2) – See score progression
- Romain Arneodo/Manuel GuinardArneodo/Manuel Guinard – Rohan Bopanna/Ben SheltonBopanna/Ben Shelton (6-2 4-6 10-7) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (1-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (6-0 6-0) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Arthur FilsFils (4-6 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
