Kamil Majchrzak and Pablo Carreno-Busta will fight against each other in the quarter of the Madrid Challenger for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 12:50 pm on PISTA CENTRAL C.MADRID . In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Kamil Majchrzak who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Kamil Majchrzak is the pick to win this match.
Kamil Majchrzak -> 1.76
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.97
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Prediction and head to head Kamil Majchrzak vs. Pablo Carreno-Busta
This will be the 4th time that Kamil Majchrzak and Pablo Carreno-Busta face off. The head to head is 2-1 for Majchrzak (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on clay.
The last time that they locked horns, Carreno-Busta won 6-4 6-4 6-3 in the 1st round in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.
Highlights Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Kamil Majchrzak – Australian Open 14-January-2025
Kamil Majchrzak
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 39-23 | 19-6 | 12-7 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 63-19 | 26-6 | 34-8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 28-22 | 19-10 | 4-6 | 4-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-21 | 4-4 | 16-9 | 5-5 | 9-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 102, Kamil reached the quarter after defeating Hugo Dellien 7-6(1) 6-1 and Carlos Taberner 6-4 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The Pole had a good straight sets win against Taberner (6-4 6-4). During the match, Majchrzak scored 70 points vs Taberner’s 59. The Pole was very aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about the service games, Majchrzak struck 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Kamil Majchrzak lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Majchrzak put 60% of his first serves in, winning 66% (27/41) of the points behind his 1st serve and 56% (15/27) on the 2nd serve. Majchrzak was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Taberner 4 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Majchrzak hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this tournament to conquer 57% of the points he played.
Majchrzak has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (338-189). 7-1 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Majchrzak has a composed 168-88 record in the last years on clay.
Majchrzak’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in the San Diego Challenger and Marrakech.
The Pole has a compiled 17-6 win-loss record in 2025, 7-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Madrid Challenger
Kamil has never competed in this tournament before.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
19 - 9win/loss
89
10
LWLLWWWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41-28 | 25-10 | 14-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 103, Carreno-Busta got to the quarter after beating Jakub Paul 6-2 6-1 and Calvin Hemery 6-4 5-7 7-6(9).
In the 2nd round, Pablo defeated Hemery (6-4 5-7 7-69). During the match Carreno-Busta scored 121 points vs Hemery’s 111. Carreno-Busta was exceptionally aggressive to blast 53 winners.
Talking about serving, Carreno-Busta struck 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Pablo Carreno-Busta lost the serve 5 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Carreno-Busta put 65% of his first serves in, winning 73% (53/73) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (19/40) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Hemery 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carreno-Busta has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was winning the title the Tenerife 1 Challenger where he overcame Alejandro Moro Canas in the final 6-3 6-2 and the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he defeated Filip Misolic in the final 6-3 6-2.
The Spaniard has an aggregate 19-9 win-loss record in 2025, 5-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Majchrzak | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 40 | 50 |
| Pts | 140-107 | 179-144 |
| Total Points | 247 | 323 |
| Winners | 47 | 71 |
| %Winners | 34% | 40% |
Both Majchrzak and Carreno-Busta played 2 matches. At the moment, Pablo Carreno-Busta lost 1 set while Kamil Majchrzak hasn’t dropped a set so far. Majchrzak has played 1 set(s) less than Carreno-Busta (4 vs 5). Therefore, Majchrzak played 10 games less than Carreno-Busta. Majchrzak scored 47 winners (34% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard fired 71 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Majchrzak | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 9 |
| Avg per match | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| 1st in | 71/125 | 100/166 |
| %1st in | 57% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 47/71 | 71/100 |
| %1st pts | 66% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 35/54 | 35/66 |
| %2nd pts | 65% | 53% |
Majchrzak made 11 aces (5.5 per match). Carreno-Busta blasted 9 aces (4.5 per match). Majchrzak won 66% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 65% of the points. On the other side, Carreno-Busta won 71% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Majchrzak | Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 10 |
| Converted | 8/9 | 10/15 |
| % Converted | 89% | 67% |
| Conceded | 8 | 11 |
| Saved | 5 | 5 |
| % Saved | 63% | 45% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 6 |
The Pole broke his opponents 8 times with a 89% conversion rate. Majchrzak surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 10 times with a 67% conversion rate. Pablo conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 45% of the break points that he conceded.
| Majchrzak | ||||
| R1 Dellien |
R2 Taberner |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-61 6-1 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | 40 | |
| pts | 70-48 | 70-59 | 140-107 | |
| Total points | 118 | 129 | 247 | |
| Winners | 20 | 27 | 47 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 39% | 34% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 6 | 5 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 30/57 | 41/68 | 71/125 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 60% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 20/30 | 27/41 | 47/71 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 66% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/27 | 15/27 | 35/54 | |
| % 2nd pts | 74% | 56% | 65% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 4/4 | 8/9 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 100% | 89% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 2/4 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 50% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Carreno-Busta | ||||
| R1 Paul |
R2 Hemery |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | 6-4 5-7 7-69 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 35 | 50 | |
| pts | 58-33 | 121-111 | 179-144 | |
| Total points | 91 | 232 | 323 | |
| Winners | 18 | 53 | 71 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 44% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 27/53 | 73/113 | 100/166 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 65% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 18/27 | 53/73 | 71/100 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 73% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 16/26 | 19/40 | 35/66 | |
| % 2nd pts | 62% | 48% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 5 | 10 | |
| Converted | 5/5 | 5/10 | 10/15 | |
| Converted % | 100% | 50% | 67% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 9 | 11 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 4/9 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 44% | 47% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 5 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
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