Pavel Kotov and Norbert Gombos will fight against each other in the quarter of the Madrid Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 1:00 pm on PISTA MERCEDES-BENZ. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pavel Kotov who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pavel Kotov is the pick to win this match.
Pavel Kotov -> 1.39
Norbert Gombos -> 2.81
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Prediction and head to head Pavel Kotov vs. Norbert Gombos
This will be the 2nd time that Pavel Kotov and Norbert Gombos square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Gombos (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Gombos won 6-3 6-4 in the 2nd round in the Pau Challenger back in 2021.
Pavel Kotov
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7-11 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 20-25 | 9-11 | 11-9 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-32 | 13-14 | 20-12 | 9-2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-20 | 5-3 | 20-9 | 12-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 29-25 | 5-5 | 7-11 | 17-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 124, Kotov got to the quarter after beating Benjamin Hassan 6-4 6-4 and Alejandro Moro Canas 6-4 5-7 7-5.
In the 2nd round, Kotov defeated Moro Canas (6-4 5-7 7-5). During the match, Kotov scored 115 points vs Moro Canas’s 108. The Russian was quite aggressive to blast 51 winners.
Regarding the service games, Kotov bagged 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Pavel Kotov lost the serve 4 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Kotov put 64% of his first serves in, winning 76% (51/67) of the points behind his 1st serve and 42% (16/38) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Moro Canas 5 times after converting 36% of his break points (5/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Russian has dropped 1 set in this competition to win 52% of the points he played.
Kotov has winning match record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (279-195). 2-1 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Kotov has a compiled 123-81 match record in the last years on clay.
Pavel has an aggregate 7-10 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Madrid Challenger
Norbert Gombos
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-8 | 1-2 | 7-2 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 23-23 | 13-3 | 10-13 | 0-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 18-23 | 2-4 | 11-10 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-28 | 7-3 | 28-17 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 26-30 | 0-9 | 13-10 | 12-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 397, the Slovakian reached the quarter after defeating Ivan Gakhov 6-4 6-7(0) 6-3, Nick Hardt 6-3 6-4, Miguel Damas 6-4 6-3 and Alexander Shevchenko 7-6(4) 7-5.
In the 2nd round, Gombos had a good straight sets win against Shevchenko (7-64 7-5). During the match Gombos scored 76 points vs Shevchenko’s 71. Gombos was extremely aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Talking about serving, Gombos bagged 4 aces and he was quite consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Norbert Gombos was quite efficient on serve to win 81% (38/47) of his 1st serve and 59% (17/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Slovakian broke Shevchenko twice after converting 29% of his break points (2/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Slovakian started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Gombos has an aggregate 12-7 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Kotov | Gombos |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 54 | 95 |
| Pts | 183-166 | 306-264 |
| Total Points | 349 | 570 |
| Winners | 88 | 158 |
| %Winners | 48% | 52% |
Kotov played 2 matches while Gombos competed in 4 matches. Gombos started his run from the qualifications while Kotov had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Pavel Kotov lost 1 set, while Norbert Gombos conceded 1 set. Kotov has played 4 set(s) less than Gombos (5 vs 9). Therefore, Kotov played 41 games less than Gombos. Kotov scored 88 winners (48% of the total points). On the other side, The Slovakian bagged 158 winners (52%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Kotov | Gombos |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 27 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 6.8 |
| 1st in | 119/172 | 198/291 |
| %1st in | 69% | 68% |
| 1st pts | 88/119 | 158/198 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 24/53 | 51/93 |
| %2nd pts | 45% | 55% |
Kotov recorded 7 aces (3.5 per match). Gombos blasted 27 aces (6.8 per match). Kotov won 74% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Gombos won 80% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Kotov | Gombos |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 9 |
| Converted | 8/18 | 9/20 |
| % Converted | 44% | 45% |
| Conceded | 13 | 11 |
| Saved | 8 | 10 |
| % Saved | 62% | 91% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 1 |
The Russian broke his opponents 8 times with a 44% conversion rate. Pavel lost his serve 5 times and he saved 62% of the break points that he conceded. The Slovakian broke his opponents 9 times with a 45% conversion rate. The Slovakian conceded his serve once and he saved 91% of the break points that he conceded.
| Kotov | ||||
| R1 Hassan |
R2 Moro |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 6-4 5-7 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 34 | 54 | |
| pts | 68-58 | 115-108 | 183-166 | |
| Total points | 126 | 223 | 349 | |
| Winners | 37 | 51 | 88 | |
| %Winners | 54% | 44% | 48% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 52/67 | 67/105 | 119/172 | |
| % 1st in | 78% | 64% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 37/52 | 51/67 | 88/119 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 76% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 8/15 | 16/38 | 24/53 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 42% | 45% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | 5/14 | 8/18 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 36% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 8 | 13 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 4/8 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 50% | 65% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Gombos | ||||||
| Q1 Gakhov |
Q3 Hardt |
R1 Damas |
R2 Shevchenko |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-70 6-3 | 6-3 6-4 | 6-4 6-3 | 7-64 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 19 | 19 | 25 | 95 | |
| pts | 106-102 | 62-44 | 62-47 | 76-71 | 306-264 | |
| Total points | 208 | 106 | 109 | 147 | 570 | |
| Winners | 64 | 27 | 29 | 38 | 158 | |
| %Winners | 60% | 44% | 47% | 50% | 52% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 10 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 27 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 82/117 | 34/51 | 35/47 | 47/76 | 198/291 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 67% | 74% | 62% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 64/82 | 27/34 | 29/35 | 38/47 | 158/198 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 79% | 83% | 81% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/35 | 14/17 | 7/12 | 17/29 | 51/93 | |
| % 2nd pts | 37% | 82% | 58% | 59% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 2/3 | 3/6 | 2/7 | 9/20 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 67% | 50% | 29% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | |
| Saved | 8/8 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | – | 50% | 125% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLLWLLWL
WLWWWWWLWL 
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Pavel KotovKotov – Norbert GombosGombos (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Zsombor PirosPiros – Valentin RoyerRoyer (0-0) – H2H and prediction
