Marin Cilic and Vilius Gaubas will fight against each other in the quarter of the Madrid Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 11:00 am on PISTA CENTRAL C.MADRID . In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Marin Cilic who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Marin Cilic is the pick to win this match.
Marin Cilic -> 1.39
Vilius Gaubas -> 2.81

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Prediction and head to head Marin Cilic vs. Vilius Gaubas

There is no head to head record between Marin Cilic and Vilius Gaubas since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Marin Cilic

Ranked no. 117, Marin reached the quarter after defeating Ignacio Buse 6-3 7-5 and Marco Trungelliti 6-2 4-6 6-1.

In the 2^nd round, Marin defeated Trungelliti (6-2 4-6 6-1). During the match, Cilic scored 91 points vs Trungelliti’s 72. The Croatian was pretty aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Talking about the service games, Cilic blasted 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Marin Cilic was very efficient on serve to win 74% (31/42) of his 1st serve and 66% (23/35) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Cilic broke Trungelliti 4 times after converting 31% of his break points (4/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Cilic has lost 1 set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points he played.

Cilic has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 62% of his matches (258-157). 7-2 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Cilic has an aggregate 60-33 win-loss record in the last years on clay.

His best result of the current season was winning the title the Girona Challenger where he defeated Elmer Moller in the final 6-3 6-4.

The Croatian has a compiled 9-4 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Madrid Challenger

Cilic has never competed in this tournament before.

Vilius Gaubas

Ranked no. 149 (career-high), the Lithuanian reached the quarter after defeating Lorenzo Giustino 4-6 7-5 7-5 and Sebastian Ofner 4-6 6-3 6-3.

In the 2^nd round against Ofner, Vilius recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 6-3). During the match Gaubas scored 89 points vs Ofner’s 74. The Lithuanian was extremely aggressive to blast 43 winners.

About the serving games, Gaubas recorded 7 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Vilius Gaubas was pretty effective on serve to win 77% (43/56) of his 1st serve and 53% (10/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Gaubas broke Ofner 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Lithuanian has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was winning the title the Menorca Challenger where he beat Pol Martin Tiffon in the final 6-0 6-4.

Vilius has an overall 10-9 win-loss record in 2025, 7-2 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Madrid Challenger

Previously, his best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Cilic	Gaubas
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	5	6
Tot Games	46	62
Pts	167-137	200-180
Total Points	304	380
Winners	59	91
%Winners	35%	46%

Both Cilic and Gaubas played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Marin Cilic lost 1 set, while Vilius Gaubas conceded 2 sets. Cilic has played 1 set(s) less than Gaubas (5 vs 6). Therefore, Cilic played 16 games less than Gaubas. Marin scored 59 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Vilius blasted 91 winners (46%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Cilic	Gaubas
Aces	19	10
Avg per match	9.5	5
1st in	74/144	128/181
%1st in	51%	71%
1st pts	59/74	91/128
%1st pts	80%	71%
2nd pts	38/70	31/53
%2nd pts	54%	58%

Cilic struck 19 aces (9.5 per match). Gaubas bagged 10 aces (5 per match). Cilic won 80% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Gaubas won 71% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Cilic	Gaubas
Won	8	8
Converted	8/26	8/20
% Converted	31%	40%
Conceded	10	11
Saved	7	6
% Saved	70%	55%
Times Broken	3	5

Marin broke his opponents 8 times with a 31% conversion rate. The Croatian dropped his serve 3 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded. The Lithuanian broke his opponents 8 times with a 40% conversion rate. The Lithuanian conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 55% of the break points that he conceded.

Cilic
	R1 Buse	R2 Trungelliti	Total
Score	6-3 7-5	6-2 4-6 6-1
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	21	25	46
pts	76-65	91-72	167-137
Total points	141	163	304
Winners	28	31	59
%Winners	37%	34%	35%
SERVE
Aces	11	8	19
Double Faults	7	1	8
1st in	32/67	42/77	74/144
% 1st in	48%	55%	51%
1st pts	28/32	31/42	59/74
% 1st pts	88%	74%	80%
2nd pts	15/35	23/35	38/70
% 2nd pts	43%	66%	54%
Breaks
Won	4	4	8
Converted	4/13	4/13	8/26
Converted %	31%	31%	31%
Conceded	5	5	10
Saved	3/5	4/5	7
Saved %	60%	80%	70%
Times Broken	2	1	3

Gaubas
	R1 Giustino	R2 Ofner	Total
Score	4-6 7-5 7-5	4-6 6-3 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	34	28	62
pts	111-106	89-74	200-180
Total points	217	163	380
Winners	48	43	91
%Winners	43%	48%	46%
SERVE
Aces	3	7	10
Double Faults	3	1	4
1st in	72/106	56/75	128/181
% 1st in	68%	75%	71%
1st pts	48/72	43/56	91/128
% 1st pts	67%	77%	71%
2nd pts	21/34	10/19	31/53
% 2nd pts	62%	53%	58%
Breaks
Won	4	4	8
Converted	4/12	4/8	8/20
Converted %	33%	50%	40%
Conceded	9	2	11
Saved	6/9	0/2	6
Saved %	67%	0%	34%
Times Broken	3	2	5

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• Pavel KotovKotov – Norbert GombosGombos (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Zsombor PirosPiros – Valentin RoyerRoyer (0-0) – H2H and prediction