H2H, prediction of Juan Pablo Varillas vs Luka Pavlovic in Mexico City Challenger with odds, preview, pick | 11th April 2025

PREVIEW. Mexico City Challenger. Pablo Patino-Samudio and Pavlovic will play each other in the quarter of the Mexico City Challenger. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match on Friday the 11th of April

Prediction and head to head Juan Pablo Varillas vs. Luka Pavlovic

Juan Pablo Varillas and Luka Pavlovic will play each other in the quarter of the Mexico City Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 4:30 pm on ESTADIO RAFAEL OSUNA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Juan Pablo Varillas who should win in 3 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Juan Pablo Varillas is the pick to win this match.
Juan Pablo Varillas -> 1.71
Luka Pavlovic -> 2.04

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Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Juan Pablo Varillas vs. Luka Pavlovic

There is no head to head record between Juan Pablo Varillas and Luka Pavlovic since this will be the first time that they will play each other in the main tour.

Juan Pablo Varillas

Juan Pablo Varillas
Juan Pablo Varillas

15 - 8win/loss

Hard
0-1
I Hard
0-0
Clay
15-7
Rank
241
High
60
LLLWWLWWWL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 15-10 0-1 15-9 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 27-31 0-5 27-25 0-1 0-0 0-0
2023 29-29 4-7 23-17 2-4 0-1 0-0
2022 53-27 2-3 51-23 0-0 0-1 0-0
2021 51-23 0-2 51-20 0-0 0-1 0-0

Ranked no. 251, Juan reached the quarter after defeating Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 6-1 6-4 and James Duckworth 2-6 6-4 6-4.

In the 2nd round against Duckworth, Juan recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-4 6-4).During the match, Pablo Patino-Samudio scored less points (2) than Duckworth. In fact, the world no. 251 won 78 points vs Duckworth’s. That means that Pablo Patino-Samudio was more focused during the important points. Pablo Patino-Samudio was quite aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Talking about the service games, Pablo Patino-Samudio fired 7 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Juan Pablo Varillas was quite effective on serve to win 74% (31/42) of his 1st serve and 58% (22/38) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 3 times. The Peruvian broke Duckworth 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Juan has lost 1 set in this tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Pablo Patino-Samudio has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (370-241). 15-6 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Pablo Patino-Samudio has an overall 343-197 win-loss record in the last years on clay.

His best result of the season was conquering the title the Buenos Aires Challenger where he defeated Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in the final 6-4 6-4.

The Peruvian has a composed 15-7 win-loss record in 2025, 15-6 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Mexico City Challenger

Pablo Patino-Samudio has never competed in this tournament before.

Pablo Patino-Samudio
Mexico City Challenger
Pablo Patino-Samudio's Record

Luka Pavlovic

Luka Pavlovic
Luka Pavlovic

15 - 4win/loss

Clay
15-4
Rank
238
High
234
WLLLLWWWWL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 17-8 0-0 17-8 0-0 0-0 0-0
2024 44-18 0-0 42-16 2-2 0-0 0-0
2023 39-12 0-1 38-10 1-1 0-0 0-0
2022 11-12 3-2 8-10 0-0 0-0 0-0
2021 16-14 1-1 15-13 0-0 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 295 (career-high), the French player got to the quarter after defeating Stefano Napolitano 7-6(5) 7-6(6) and Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 7-6(4) 6-3.

In the 2nd round, Pavlovic had a good straight sets win against Pacheco Mendez (7-64 6-3). During the match Pavlovic scored 73 points vs Pacheco Mendez’s 65. Luka was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Talking about serving, Pavlovic fired 18 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Overall, Luka Pavlovic was quite effective on serve to win 89% (24/27) of his 1st serve and 55% (22/40) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The French player broke Pacheco Mendez twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The French player hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.

The French player best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in the Kigali 2 Challenger.

Luka has an aggregate 14-4 win-loss record in 2025, 14-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Pavlovic
Mexico City Challenger
Pavlovic's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

J.Pablo Varillas
L.Pavlovic
3h:24
3h:24
Time on court​
3h:22
3h:22
!
2h:01
2h:01
Last match​
1h:28
1h:28
2
2
Match played
2
2
45
45
Games Played​
48
48
5
5
Set played​​
4
4
141
141
Total points​
154
154
70.5
70.5
Avg point​
77
77
59
59
Winners
57
57
29.5
29.5
Avg Winners​
28.5
28.5
42%
42%
Ratio winners
37%
37%
-- Serve --
10
10
Aces
38
38
5
5
Avg Aces
!
19
19
4
4
Double Faults
10
10
2
2
Avg Double Faults
5
5
59/84
59/84
1st won total​
57/69
57/69
70%
70%
1st won %
!
83%
83%
36/64
36/64
2nd won total​
49/84
49/84
56%
56%
2nd won %
58%
58%
-- Break Points --
7/12
7/12
BP won
3/7
3/7
3.5/6
3.5/6
Avg BP won
1.5/3.5
1.5/3.5
!
58%
58%
Won
43%
43%
15
15
Conceded
6
6
7.5
7.5
Avg Conceded
3
3
4
4
Broken
2
2
2
2
Avg Broken
1
1
11
11
Saved
4
4

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Pablo Patino-Samudio Pavlovic
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 5 4
Tot Games 45 48
Pts 141-125 154-145
Total Points 266 299
Winners 59 57
%Winners 42% 37%

Both Pablo Patino-Samudio and Pavlovic played 2 matches. At the moment, Juan Pablo Varillas lost 1 set while Luka Pavlovic hasn’t dropped a set so far. Pablo Patino-Samudio has played 1 set more than Pavlovic (5 vs 4). However, it’s interesting to notice that Pablo Patino-Samudio played 3 games less than Pavlovic. The Peruvian scored 59 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Luka made 57 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve Pablo Patino-Samudio Pavlovic
Aces 10 38
Avg per match 5 19
1st in 84/148 69/153
%1st in 57% 45%
1st pts 59/84 57/69
%1st pts 70% 83%
2nd pts 36/64 49/84
%2nd pts 56% 58%

Pablo Patino-Samudio made 10 aces (5 per match). Pavlovic fired 38 aces (19 per match). Pablo Patino-Samudio won 70% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Pavlovic won 83% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Pablo Patino-Samudio Pavlovic
Won 7 3
Converted 7/12 3/7
% Converted 58% 43%
Conceded 15 6
Saved 11 4
% Saved 73% 67%
Times Broken 4 2

Juan broke his opponents 7 times with a 58% conversion rate. The Peruvian lost his serve 4 times and he saved 73% of the break points that he conceded. The French player broke his opponents 3 times with a 43% conversion rate. Pavlovic conceded his serve twice and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.

Pablo Patino-Samudio
R1
Rodriguez Taverna
R2
Duckworth
Total
Score 6-1 6-4 2-6 6-4 6-4
Tot Set 2 3 5
Tot Games 17 28 45
pts 63-45 78-80 141-125
Total points 108 158 266
Winners 28 31 59
%Winners 44% 40% 42%
SERVE
Aces 3 7 10
Double Faults 2 2 4
1st in 42/68 42/80 84/148
% 1st in 62% 53% 57%
1st pts 28/42 31/42 59/84
% 1st pts 67% 74% 70%
2nd pts 14/26 22/38 36/64
% 2nd pts 54% 58% 56%
Breaks
Won 4 3 7
Converted 4/6 3/6 7/12
Converted % 67% 50% 58%
Conceded 11 4 15
Saved 10/11 1/4 11
Saved % 91% 25% 58%
Times Broken 1 3 4
Pavlovic
R1
Napolitano
R2
Pacheco
Total
Score 7-65 7-66 7-64 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 4
Tot Games 26 22 48
pts 81-80 73-65 154-145
Total points 161 138 299
Winners 33 24 57
%Winners 41% 33% 37%
SERVE
Aces 20 18 38
Double Faults 4 6 10
1st in 42/86 27/67 69/153
% 1st in 49% 40% 45%
1st pts 33/42 24/27 57/69
% 1st pts 79% 89% 83%
2nd pts 27/44 22/40 49/84
% 2nd pts 61% 55% 58%
Breaks
Won 1 2 3
Converted 1/1 2/6 3/7
Converted % 100% 33% 43%
Conceded 3 3 6
Saved 2/3 2/3 4
Saved % 67% 67% 67%
Times Broken 1 1 2

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Pablo Varillas
LLLWWLWWWL
Pavlovic
WLLLLWWWWL
2025 2024 2023
15 - 10
17 - 8
15-9
Clay
17-8

Tennis Scores in Mexico City Challenger

  • Ryan Seggerman/Patrik TrhacSeggerman/Patrik TrhacNicolas Barrientos/Rithvik Choudary BollipalliBarrientos/Rithvik Choudary Bollipalli (6-4 7-65) – Stats, scores, rankings
  • N.Sriram Balaji/Miguel-Angel Reyes-VarelaBalaji/Miguel-Angel Reyes-VarelaNeil Oberleitner/Matias SotoOberleitner/Matias Soto (3-6 6-3 11-9) – Stats, scores, rankings
See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw