Pablo Carreno-Busta and Calvin Hemery will play each other in the 2^nd round of the Madrid Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 4:00 pm on PISTA CENTRAL C.MADRID. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.25
Calvin Hemery -> 3.64

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Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Calvin Hemery

There is no head to head record between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Calvin Hemery since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Ranked no. 103, the Spaniard reached the 2^nd round after beating Jakub Paul 6-2 6-1.

In the 1^st round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Paul (6-2 6-1). During the match, Carreno-Busta scored 58 points vs Paul’s 33. Pablo was exceptionally aggressive to blast 18 winners.

Talking about the service games, Carreno-Busta struck 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Pablo Carreno-Busta lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Carreno-Busta put 51% of his first serves in, winning 67% (18/27) of the points behind his 1st serve and 62% (16/26) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Paul 5 times.

Carreno-Busta has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (269-177). 4-3 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Carreno-Busta has an aggregate 99-62 win-loss record in the last years on clay.

His best result of the current year was conquering the title the Tenerife 1 Challenger where he defeated Alejandro Moro Canas in the final 6-3 6-2 and the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he defeated Filip Misolic in the final 6-3 6-2.

Carreno-Busta has a composed 18-9 win-loss record in 2025, 4-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Madrid Challenger

Pablo has never competed in this tournament before.

Calvin Hemery

Ranked no. 171, Hemery reached the 2^nd round after beating Bernabe Zapata Miralles 6-3 2-6 6-4.

In the 1^st round, The French player defeated Zapata Miralles (6-3 2-6 6-4). During the match Hemery scored 82 points vs Zapata Miralles’s 76. Calvin was pretty aggressive to blast 40 winners.

Talking about serving, Hemery managed to score 4 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Calvin Hemery lost the serve twice. Furthermore, Hemery put 64% of his first serves in, winning 85% (40/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (12/26) on the 2nd serve. The French player broke Zapata Miralles twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).

The French player best result of the current year was getting to the final in the Brazzaville Challenger.

Calvin has a composed 12-11 win-loss record in 2025, 8-5 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Carreno-Busta	Hemery
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	3
Tot Games	15	27
Pts	58-33	82-76
Total Points	91	158
Winners	18	40
%Winners	31%	49%

Both Carreno-Busta and Hemery played 1 match. At the moment, Calvin Hemery conceded 1 set while Pablo Carreno-Busta hasn’t conceded a set so far. Carreno-Busta has played 1 set(s) less than Hemery (2 vs 3). Therefore, Carreno-Busta played 12 games less than Hemery. Pablo scored 18 winners (31% of the total points). On the other side, The French player managed to score 40 winners (49%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Carreno-Busta	Hemery
Aces	3	4
Avg per match	3	4
1st in	27/53	47/73
%1st in	51%	64%
1st pts	18/27	40/47
%1st pts	67%	85%
2nd pts	16/26	12/26
%2nd pts	62%	46%

Carreno-Busta made 3 aces . Hemery recorded 4 aces . Carreno-Busta won 67% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Hemery won 85% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 46% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Carreno-Busta	Hemery
Won	5	2
Converted	5/5	2/6
% Converted	100%	33%
Conceded	2	2
Saved	1	0
% Saved	50%	0%
Times Broken	1	2

Pablo broke his opponent 5 times with a 100% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve once and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Calvin broke his opponent twice with a 33% conversion rate. The French player conceded his serve twice and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded.

Carreno-Busta
	R1 Paul	Total
Score	6-2 6-1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	15	15
pts	58-33	58-33
Total points	91	91
Winners	18	18
%Winners	31%	31%
SERVE
Aces	3	3
Double Faults	2	2
1st in	27/53	27/53
% 1st in	51%	51%
1st pts	18/27	18/27
% 1st pts	67%	67%
2nd pts	16/26	16/26
% 2nd pts	62%	62%
Breaks
Won	5	5
Converted	5/5	5/5
Converted %	100%	100%
Conceded	2	2
Saved	1/2	1
Saved %	50%	50%
Times Broken	1	1

Hemery
	R1 Zapata Miralles	Total
Score	6-3 2-6 6-4
Tot Set	3	3
Tot Games	27	27
pts	82-76	82-76
Total points	158	158
Winners	40	40
%Winners	49%	49%
SERVE
Aces	4	4
Double Faults	5	5
1st in	47/73	47/73
% 1st in	64%	64%
1st pts	40/47	40/47
% 1st pts	85%	85%
2nd pts	12/26	12/26
% 2nd pts	46%	46%
Breaks
Won	2	2
Converted	2/6	2/6
Converted %	33%	33%
Conceded	2	2
Saved	0/2	0
Saved %	0%	0%
Times Broken	2	2

Tennis Scores in Madrid Challenger

• Norbert GombosGombos – Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko (7-6⁴ 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Valentin RoyerRoyer – August HolmgrenHolmgren (7-6⁴ 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Zsombor PirosPiros – Borna CoricCoric (5-7 6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Pavel KotovKotov – Alejandro Moro CanasMoro Canas (6-4 5-7 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Marco TrungellitiTrungelliti – Marin CilicCilic (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Calvin HemeryHemery (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Sebastian OfnerOfner – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos TabernerTaberner – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Pavel KotovKotov – Norbert GombosGombos (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Zsombor PirosPiros – Valentin RoyerRoyer (0-0) – H2H and prediction