Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Berrettini will clash against each other in the 3^rd round of the ATP1000 Master in Monte-Carlo for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 4:00 pm on COURT RAINIER III. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Berrettini who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Matteo Berrettini is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Berrettini -> 1.64
Lorenzo Musetti -> 2.26

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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Matteo Berrettini

This will be the 3^rd time that Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Berrettini square off. The head to head is 1-1 for Musetti and Berrettini (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.

The last time that they fought against each other, Berrettini won 6-4 6-0 in the semifinal in Stuttgart back in 2024.

Highlights Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti – Stuttgart 15-June-2024

Lorenzo Musetti

Ranked no. 16, Lorenzo got to the 3^rd round after beating Bu Yunchaokete 4-6 7-5 6-3 and Jiri Lehecka 1-6 7-5 6-2.

In the 2^nd round against Lehecka, Musetti recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 7-5 6-2). During the match, Musetti scored 96 points vs Lehecka’s 85. The Italian was extremely aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Regarding the service games, Musetti managed to score 3 aces and he was pretty solid in conceding no double faults. Lorenzo Musetti lost the serve 4 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 70% of his first serves in, winning 60% (32/53) of the points behind his 1st serve and 70% (16/23) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Lehecka 4 times after converting 22% of his break points (4/18).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Lorenzo has dropped 2 set in this event to win 53% of the points he played.

Musetti has a winning win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 58% of his matches (229-165). 3-0 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Musetti has an overall122-66 record in the last 8 years on clay.

Lorenzo has an overall 9-4 win-loss record in 2025, 3-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters

Matteo Berrettini

Ranked no. 34, Matteo got to the 3^rd round after beating Mariano Navone 6-4 6-4 and Alexander Zverev 2-6 6-3 7-5.

In the 2^nd round against Zverev, Matteo recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 7-5). During the match Berrettini scored 87 points vs Zverev’s 85. Berrettini was pretty aggressive to blast 39 winners.

Talking about serving, Berrettini fired 4 aces and he was pretty solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Matteo Berrettini lost the serve 3 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Berrettini put 64% of his first serves in, winning 70% (39/56) of the points behind his 1st serve and 55% (17/31) on the 2nd serve. Matteo broke Zverev 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points he played.

The Italian has an aggregate 11-7 win-loss record in 2025, 2-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2021 and 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Musetti	Berrettini
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	6	5
Tot Games	58	49
Pts	196-176	158-149
Total Points	372	307
Winners	81	68
%Winners	41%	43%

Both Musetti and Berrettini played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Lorenzo Musetti surrendered 2 sets, while Matteo Berrettini conceded 1 set. Musetti has played 1 set more than Berrettini (6 vs 5). Therefore, Musetti played 9 games more than Berrettini. Musetti scored 81 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian managed to score 68 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Musetti	Berrettini
Aces	4	6
Avg per match	2	3
1st in	122/166	100/156
%1st in	73%	64%
1st pts	81/122	68/100
%1st pts	66%	68%
2nd pts	27/44	26/56
%2nd pts	61%	46%

Musetti scored 4 aces (2 per match). Berrettini bagged 6 aces (3 per match). Musetti won 66% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Berrettini won 68% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 46% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Musetti	Berrettini
Won	7	8
Converted	7/24	8/18
% Converted	29%	44%
Conceded	8	12
Saved	2	6
% Saved	25%	50%
Times Broken	6	6

The Italian broke his opponents 7 times with a 29% conversion rate. Musetti dropped his serve 6 times and he saved 25% of the break points that he conceded. Berrettini broke his opponents 8 times with a 44% conversion rate. Berrettini conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.

Musetti
	R1 Yunchaokete	R2 Lehecka	Total
Score	4-6 7-5 6-3	1-6 7-5 6-2
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	31	27	58
pts	100-91	96-85	196-176
Total points	191	181	372
Winners	49	32	81
%Winners	49%	33%	41%
SERVE
Aces	1	3	4
Double Faults	1	0	1
1st in	69/90	53/76	122/166
% 1st in	77%	70%	73%
1st pts	49/69	32/53	81/122
% 1st pts	71%	60%	66%
2nd pts	11/21	16/23	27/44
% 2nd pts	52%	70%	61%
Breaks
Won	3	4	7
Converted	3/6	4/18	7/24
Converted %	50%	22%	29%
Conceded	2	6	8
Saved	0/2	2/6	2
Saved %	0%	33%	17%
Times Broken	2	4	6

Berrettini
	R1 Navone	R2 Zverev	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	2-6 6-3 7-5
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	20	29	49
pts	71-64	87-85	158-149
Total points	135	172	307
Winners	29	39	68
%Winners	41%	45%	43%
SERVE
Aces	2	4	6
Double Faults	4	0	4
1st in	44/69	56/87	100/156
% 1st in	64%	64%	64%
1st pts	29/44	39/56	68/100
% 1st pts	66%	70%	68%
2nd pts	9/25	17/31	26/56
% 2nd pts	36%	55%	46%
Breaks
Won	5	3	8
Converted	5/11	3/7	8/18
Converted %	45%	43%	44%
Conceded	7	5	12
Saved	4/7	2/5	6
Saved %	57%	40%	49%
Times Broken	3	3	6

Tennis Scores in Monte Carlo Rolex Masters

• Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Sadio Doumbia/Fabien ReboulDoumbia/Fabien Reboul (6-3 3-6 10-7) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (1-6 7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (3-6 6-0 6-1) – See score progression
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Richard GasquetGasquet (7-5 5-7 6-2) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (7-5 6-7⁴ 6-4) – See score progression
• Arthur FilsFils – Flavio CobolliCobolli (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (7-6² 6-3) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Gael MonfilsMonfils (6-4 7-6²) – See score progression
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Alexander ZverevZverev (2-6 6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Jordan ThompsonThompson (4-6 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Jack DraperDraper – Marcos GironGiron (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (1-6 7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (7-5 6-7(4) 6-4) – See score progression
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Tomas MachacMachac (3-6 6-0 6-3) – See score progression
• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (7-6(2) 6-3) – See score progression
• Casper RuudRuud – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Gael MonfilsMonfils (6-4 7-6(2)) – See score progression
• Arthur FilsFils – Flavio CobolliCobolli (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Richard GasquetGasquet (7-5 5-7 6-2) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (3-6 6-0 6-1) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alexandre MullerMuller (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Andrey RublevRublev – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Valentin VacherotVacherot – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jack DraperDraper – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (0-0) – H2H and prediction