Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Berrettini will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the ATP1000 Master in Monte-Carlo for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 4:00 pm on COURT RAINIER III. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matteo Berrettini who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Matteo Berrettini is the pick to win this match.
Matteo Berrettini -> 1.64
Lorenzo Musetti -> 2.26
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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Matteo Berrettini
This will be the 3rd time that Lorenzo Musetti and Matteo Berrettini square off. The head to head is 1-1 for Musetti and Berrettini (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on clay.
The last time that they fought against each other, Berrettini won 6-4 6-0 in the semifinal in Stuttgart back in 2024.
Highlights Matteo Berrettini vs Lorenzo Musetti – Stuttgart 15-June-2024
Lorenzo Musetti
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-5 | 6-4 | 6-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-30 | 13-12 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 12-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 16, Lorenzo got to the 3rd round after beating Bu Yunchaokete 4-6 7-5 6-3 and Jiri Lehecka 1-6 7-5 6-2.
In the 2nd round against Lehecka, Musetti recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 7-5 6-2). During the match, Musetti scored 96 points vs Lehecka’s 85. The Italian was extremely aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Regarding the service games, Musetti managed to score 3 aces and he was pretty solid in conceding no double faults. Lorenzo Musetti lost the serve 4 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 70% of his first serves in, winning 60% (32/53) of the points behind his 1st serve and 70% (16/23) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Lehecka 4 times after converting 22% of his break points (4/18).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Lorenzo has dropped 2 set in this event to win 53% of the points he played.
Musetti has a winning win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 58% of his matches (229-165). 3-0 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Musetti has an overall122-66 record in the last 8 years on clay.
Lorenzo has an overall 9-4 win-loss record in 2025, 3-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Matteo Berrettini
11 - 7win/loss
31
6
LWWLWWWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11-8 | 9-6 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 36-13 | 7-6 | 15-1 | 8-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 14-12 | 9-10 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 32-12 | 15-9 | 4-2 | 4-1 | 9-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 41-12 | 14-5 | 13-4 | 3-2 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 34, Matteo got to the 3rd round after beating Mariano Navone 6-4 6-4 and Alexander Zverev 2-6 6-3 7-5.
In the 2nd round against Zverev, Matteo recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 7-5). During the match Berrettini scored 87 points vs Zverev’s 85. Berrettini was pretty aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Talking about serving, Berrettini fired 4 aces and he was pretty solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Matteo Berrettini lost the serve 3 times and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Berrettini put 64% of his first serves in, winning 70% (39/56) of the points behind his 1st serve and 55% (17/31) on the 2nd serve. Matteo broke Zverev 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 51% of the points he played.
The Italian has an aggregate 11-7 win-loss record in 2025, 2-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2021 and 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 58 | 49 |
| Pts | 196-176 | 158-149 |
| Total Points | 372 | 307 |
| Winners | 81 | 68 |
| %Winners | 41% | 43% |
Both Musetti and Berrettini played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Lorenzo Musetti surrendered 2 sets, while Matteo Berrettini conceded 1 set. Musetti has played 1 set more than Berrettini (6 vs 5). Therefore, Musetti played 9 games more than Berrettini. Musetti scored 81 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian managed to score 68 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 3 |
| 1st in | 122/166 | 100/156 |
| %1st in | 73% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 81/122 | 68/100 |
| %1st pts | 66% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 27/44 | 26/56 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 46% |
Musetti scored 4 aces (2 per match). Berrettini bagged 6 aces (3 per match). Musetti won 66% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Berrettini won 68% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 46% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Musetti | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 8 |
| Converted | 7/24 | 8/18 |
| % Converted | 29% | 44% |
| Conceded | 8 | 12 |
| Saved | 2 | 6 |
| % Saved | 25% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 6 |
The Italian broke his opponents 7 times with a 29% conversion rate. Musetti dropped his serve 6 times and he saved 25% of the break points that he conceded. Berrettini broke his opponents 8 times with a 44% conversion rate. Berrettini conceded his serve 6 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Musetti | ||||
| R1 Yunchaokete |
R2 Lehecka |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 7-5 6-3 | 1-6 7-5 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 27 | 58 | |
| pts | 100-91 | 96-85 | 196-176 | |
| Total points | 191 | 181 | 372 | |
| Winners | 49 | 32 | 81 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 33% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 69/90 | 53/76 | 122/166 | |
| % 1st in | 77% | 70% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 49/69 | 32/53 | 81/122 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 60% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/21 | 16/23 | 27/44 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 70% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Converted | 3/6 | 4/18 | 7/24 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 22% | 29% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 6 | 8 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 2/6 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 33% | 17% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Berrettini | ||||
| R1 Navone |
R2 Zverev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 2-6 6-3 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 29 | 49 | |
| pts | 71-64 | 87-85 | 158-149 | |
| Total points | 135 | 172 | 307 | |
| Winners | 29 | 39 | 68 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 45% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 44/69 | 56/87 | 100/156 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 64% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 29/44 | 39/56 | 68/100 | |
| % 1st pts | 66% | 70% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/25 | 17/31 | 26/56 | |
| % 2nd pts | 36% | 55% | 46% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 3/7 | 8/18 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 43% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 5 | 12 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 2/5 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 40% | 49% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWLWWL
LWWLWWWLWL Tennis Scores in Monte Carlo Rolex Masters
- Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Sadio Doumbia/Fabien ReboulDoumbia/Fabien Reboul (6-3 3-6 10-7) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (1-6 7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (3-6 6-0 6-1) – See score progression
- Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Richard GasquetGasquet (7-5 5-7 6-2) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (7-5 6-74 6-4) – See score progression
- Arthur FilsFils – Flavio CobolliCobolli (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (7-62 6-3) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Gael MonfilsMonfils (6-4 7-62) – See score progression
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Alexander ZverevZverev (2-6 6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Jordan ThompsonThompson (4-6 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Jack DraperDraper – Marcos GironGiron (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (1-6 7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (7-5 6-7(4) 6-4) – See score progression
- Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Tomas MachacMachac (3-6 6-0 6-3) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (7-6(2) 6-3) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Gael MonfilsMonfils (6-4 7-6(2)) – See score progression
- Arthur FilsFils – Flavio CobolliCobolli (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Richard GasquetGasquet (7-5 5-7 6-2) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (3-6 6-0 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Alexandre MullerMuller (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Andrey RublevRublev – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Nuno BorgesBorges – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Valentin VacherotVacherot – Grigor DimitrovDimitrov (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (0-0) – H2H and prediction
