Pablo Carreno-Busta and Jakub Paul will face off in the 1^st round of the Madrid Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 4:00 PM on PISTA CENTRAL C.MADRID. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.143
Jakub Paul -> 5

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Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Jakub Paul

There is no head to head record between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Jakub Paul since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Ranked no. 103, Pablo will start his run in the Madrid Challenger after he played his last match in Marrakech where he lost 7-6(1) 3-6 6-3 to Griekspoor in the 2^nd round on the 3^rd of April.

The Spaniard has an aggregate 17-9 win-loss record in 2025, 3-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).

His best result of the current year was winning the title the Tenerife 1 Challenger where he beat Alejandro Moro Canas in the final 6-3 6-2 and the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he overcame Filip Misolic in the final 6-3 6-2.

Talking about his overall career, Pablo has an overall 588-336 record. He has a positive 345-174 record on clay.

Previously in the Madrid Challenger

Pablo has never competed in this tournament before.

Jakub Paul

Ranked no. 335 (career-high), Paul reached the 1^st round after beating Nikoloz Basilashvili 4-6 6-1 6-2 and Pedro Cachin 7-6(6) 6-3.

In the qualifications, The Swiss had a good straight sets win against Cachin (7-6⁶ 6-3). During the match Paul scored 80 points vs Cachin’s 73. The Swiss was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.

About the serving games, Paul blasted 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Jakub Paul lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 61% of his first serves in, winning 63% (31/49) of the points behind his 1st serve and 58% (18/31) on the 2nd serve. Jakub broke Cachin 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Paul started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Jakub’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in the Koblenz Challenger.

Jakub has a compiled 18-8 win-loss record in 2025, 2-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Tennis Scores in Madrid Challenger

• Marco TrungellitiTrungelliti – Daniel Merida AguilarMerida Aguilar (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko – Tristan BoyerBoyer (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• August HolmgrenHolmgren – Otto VirtanenVirtanen (6-3 6-7⁵ 7-6³) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Borna CoricCoric – Alexander BlockxBlockx (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Lorenzo GiustinoGiustino – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Jakub PaulPaul (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Calvin HemeryHemery – Bernabe Zapata MirallesZapata Miralles (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – Hugo DellienDellien (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Billy HarrisHarris – Sebastian OfnerOfner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Carlos TabernerTaberner – Oriol Roca BatallaRoca Batalla (2-3) – H2H and prediction
• Miguel DamasDamas – Norbert GombosGombos (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Pavel KotovKotov – Benjamin HassanHassan (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Pol Martin TiffonMartin Tiffon – Valentin RoyerRoyer (1-0) – H2H and prediction