Pablo Carreno-Busta and Jakub Paul will face off in the 1st round of the Madrid Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 4:00 PM on PISTA CENTRAL C.MADRID. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.143
Jakub Paul -> 5
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Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Jakub Paul
There is no head to head record between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Jakub Paul since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
18 - 9win/loss
89
10
LWLLWWWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41-28 | 25-10 | 14-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 103, Pablo will start his run in the Madrid Challenger after he played his last match in Marrakech where he lost 7-6(1) 3-6 6-3 to Griekspoor in the 2nd round on the 3rd of April.
The Spaniard has an aggregate 17-9 win-loss record in 2025, 3-3 on clay (See FULL STATS).
His best result of the current year was winning the title the Tenerife 1 Challenger where he beat Alejandro Moro Canas in the final 6-3 6-2 and the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he overcame Filip Misolic in the final 6-3 6-2.
Talking about his overall career, Pablo has an overall 588-336 record. He has a positive 345-174 record on clay.
Previously in the Madrid Challenger
Pablo has never competed in this tournament before.
Jakub Paul
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35-21 | 14-5 | 12-7 | 9-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 44-27 | 15-9 | 17-11 | 12-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-24 | 20-4 | 14-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| 2022 | 25-26 | 4-4 | 20-18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| 2021 | 34-21 | 4-3 | 17-10 | 11-7 | 0-0 | 2-1 |
Ranked no. 335 (career-high), Paul reached the 1st round after beating Nikoloz Basilashvili 4-6 6-1 6-2 and Pedro Cachin 7-6(6) 6-3.
In the qualifications, The Swiss had a good straight sets win against Cachin (7-66 6-3). During the match Paul scored 80 points vs Cachin’s 73. The Swiss was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.
About the serving games, Paul blasted 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Jakub Paul lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 61% of his first serves in, winning 63% (31/49) of the points behind his 1st serve and 58% (18/31) on the 2nd serve. Jakub broke Cachin 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Paul started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Jakub’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in the Koblenz Challenger.
Jakub has a compiled 18-8 win-loss record in 2025, 2-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Head 2 Head
LWLLWWWWLW
LLLLWWLWWW Tennis Scores in Madrid Challenger
- Marco TrungellitiTrungelliti – Daniel Merida AguilarMerida Aguilar (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko – Tristan BoyerBoyer (7-5 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
- August HolmgrenHolmgren – Otto VirtanenVirtanen (6-3 6-75 7-63) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Borna CoricCoric – Alexander BlockxBlockx (6-1 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Lorenzo GiustinoGiustino – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Jakub PaulPaul (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Calvin HemeryHemery – Bernabe Zapata MirallesZapata Miralles (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – Hugo DellienDellien (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Billy HarrisHarris – Sebastian OfnerOfner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Carlos TabernerTaberner – Oriol Roca BatallaRoca Batalla (2-3) – H2H and prediction
- Miguel DamasDamas – Norbert GombosGombos (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Pavel KotovKotov – Benjamin HassanHassan (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Pol Martin TiffonMartin Tiffon – Valentin RoyerRoyer (1-0) – H2H and prediction
