James Duckworth and Dmitry Popko will fight against each other in the final of the Morelia Challenger for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 6:00 pm on ESTADIO TRES MARIAS. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is James Duckworth who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, James Duckworth is the pick to win this match.
James Duckworth -> 1.5
Dmitry Popko -> 2.45

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head James Duckworth vs. Dmitry Popko

This will be the 2^nd time that James Duckworth and Dmitry Popko face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Duckworth (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, Duckworth won 6-3 6-4 in the 3^rd round in the Las Vegas Challenger back in 2019.

James Duckworth

Ranked no. 95, the Australian got to the final after defeating Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros 6-1 6-3, Tyler Zink 7-5 6-3, Juan Alejandro Hernandez 6-4 7-6(6) and Beibit Zhukayev 6-2 6-4.

In the semifinal, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Zhukayev (6-2 6-4). During the match, Duckworth scored 64 points vs Zhukayev’s 48. Duckworth was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Regarding the service games, Duckworth blasted 5 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. James Duckworth was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 86% (24/28) of his 1st serve and 57% (16/28) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. James broke Zhukayev 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Duckworth hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.

Duckworth has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (288-187). 9-7 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Duckworth has a composed 206-113 record in the last years on hard.

James’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in the Morelia Challenger.

Duckworth has an overall 10-9 win-loss record in 2025, 9-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Morelia Challenger

The Australian has never competed in this tournament before.

Dmitry Popko

Ranked no. 245, Dmitry reached the final after defeating Terence Atmane 7-6(6) 6-7(4) 6-3, Adrian Mannarino 6-2 6-3, Thiago Agustin Tirante 6-1 6-4 and Hugo Grenier 6-2 6-1.

In the semifinal, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Grenier (6-2 6-1). During the match Popko scored 64 points vs Grenier’s 45. Dmitry was quite aggressive to blast 24 winners.

About the serving games, Popko struck 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Dmitry Popko was extremely effective on serve to win 80% (24/30) of his 1st serve and 53% (9/17) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Kazakhstani broke Grenier 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Popko has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

The Kazakhstani’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in the Morelia Challenger.

Popko has a compiled 9-10 win-loss record in 2025, 5-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Duckworth	Popko
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	8	9
Tot Games	78	84
Pts	287-222	300-243
Total Points	509	543
Winners	87	125
%Winners	30%	42%

Both Duckworth and Popko played 4 matches. At the moment, Dmitry Popko lost 1 set while James Duckworth hasn’t lost a set so far. Duckworth has played 1 set(s) less than Popko (8 vs 9). Therefore, Duckworth played 6 games less than Popko. The Australian scored 87 winners (30% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani made 125 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Duckworth	Popko
Aces	29	15
Avg per match	7.3	3.8
1st in	113/240	153/269
%1st in	47%	57%
1st pts	87/113	125/153
%1st pts	77%	82%
2nd pts	75/127	66/116
%2nd pts	59%	57%

Duckworth managed to score 29 aces (7.3 per match). Popko struck 15 aces (3.8 per match). Duckworth won 77% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Popko won 82% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Duckworth	Popko
Won	15	12
Converted	15/26	12/22
% Converted	58%	55%
Conceded	17	9
Saved	12	9
% Saved	71%	100%
Times Broken	5	0

The Australian broke his opponents 15 times with a 58% conversion rate. James dropped his serve 5 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded. The Kazakhstani broke his opponents 12 times with a 55% conversion rate. The Kazakhstani was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 9 break points.

Duckworth
	R1 Fernando Rubio Fierros	R2 Zink	1/4 Alejandro	1/2 Zhukayev	Total
Score	6-1 6-3	7-5 6-3	6-4 7-66	6-2 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	16	21	23	18	78
pts	70-49	72-54	81-71	64-48	287-222
Total points	119	126	152	112	509
Winners	16	19	28	24	87
%Winners	23%	26%	35%	38%	30%
SERVE
Aces	5	4	15	5	29
Double Faults	1	3	3	7	14
1st in	22/47	25/60	38/77	28/56	113/240
% 1st in	47%	42%	49%	50%	47%
1st pts	16/22	19/25	28/38	24/28	87/113
% 1st pts	73%	76%	74%	86%	77%
2nd pts	13/25	24/35	22/39	16/28	75/127
% 2nd pts	52%	69%	56%	57%	59%
Breaks
Won	6	3	3	3	15
Converted	6/13	3/4	3/4	3/5	15/26
Converted %	46%	75%	75%	60%	58%
Conceded	4	4	5	4	17
Saved	2/4	3/4	3/5	4/4	12
Saved %	50%	75%	60%	100%	71%
Times Broken	2	1	2	0	5

Popko
	R1 Atmane	R2 Mannarino	1/4 Agustin	1/2 Grenier	Total
Score	7-66 6-74 6-3	6-2 6-3	6-1 6-4	6-2 6-1
Tot Set	3	2	2	2	9
Tot Games	35	17	17	15	84
pts	118-110	59-45	59-43	64-45	300-243
Total points	228	104	102	109	543
Winners	48	27	26	24	125
%Winners	41%	46%	44%	38%	42%
SERVE
Aces	8	3	2	2	15
Double Faults	7	2	4	3	16
1st in	59/107	31/58	33/57	30/47	153/269
% 1st in	55%	53%	58%	64%	57%
1st pts	48/59	27/31	26/33	24/30	125/153
% 1st pts	81%	87%	79%	80%	82%
2nd pts	29/48	13/27	15/24	9/17	66/116
% 2nd pts	60%	48%	63%	53%	57%
Breaks
Won	2	3	3	4	12
Converted	2/8	3/4	3/5	4/5	12/22
Converted %	25%	75%	60%	80%	55%
Conceded	3	1	4	1	9
Saved	3/3	1/1	4/4	1/1	9
Saved %	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0	0	0	0

Upcoming matches in the draw

• James DuckworthDuckworth – Dmitry PopkoPopko (1-0) – H2H and prediction