Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula will square off in the final of the Miami Open for the 9^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 3:00 pm on STADIUM. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.28
Jessica Pegula -> 3.82

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula

This will be the 9^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula clash against each other. The head to head is 6-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 3-2 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Sabalenka won 7-5 7-5 in the final in at the U.S. Open back in 2024.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula – U.S. Open 07-September-2024

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 Aryna got to the final after defeating Unknown Player bye, Viktoriya Tomova 6-3 6-0, Elena Gabriela Ruse 6-1 ret., Danielle Rose Collins 6-4 6-4, Qinwen Zheng 6-2 7-5 and Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-2.

In the semifinal, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Paolini (6-2 6-2). During the match, Sabalenka scored 66 points vs Paolini’s 44. Sabalenka was quite aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Regarding the service games, Sabalenka recorded 6 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Aryna Sabalenka conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 4 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 78% of her first serves in, winning 78% (31/40) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (5/11) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Paolini 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Sabalenka hasn’t conceded yet a set in this tournament to win 59% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (396-172). 22-4 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Sabalenka has an aggregate 249-96 record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Brisbane where she overcame Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2.

The Belarussian has a composed 22-4 win-loss record in 2025, 22-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Miami

Jessica Pegula

Ranked no. 4, Jessica got to the final after defeating Unknown Player bye, Bernarda Pera 6-4 6-4, Anna Kalinskaya 6-7(3) 6-2 7-6(2), Marta Kostyuk 6-2 6-3, Emma Raducanu 6-4 6-7(3) 6-2 and Alexandra Eala 7-6(3) 5-7 6-3.

In the semifinal, Jessica defeated Eala (7-6³ 5-7 6-3). During the match Pegula scored 110 points vs Eala’s 98. Jessica was quite aggressive to blast 51 winners.

Talking about serving, Pegula managed to score 6 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Jessica Pegula lost the serve 5 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 66% of her first serves in, winning 73% (51/70) of the points behind her 1st serve and 42% (15/36) on the 2nd serve. Pegula broke Eala 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Austin where she beat Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2.

Jessica has an overall 20-5 win-loss record in 2025, 20-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Miami

Previously, her best result was reaching the semifinal in 2022 and 2023. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Pegula
Match played	5	5
Tot Set	10	13
Tot Games	78	136
Pts	295-197	459-375
Total Points	492	834
Winners	108	212
%Winners	37%	46%

Both Sabalenka and Pegula played 5 matches. At the moment, Jessica Pegula conceded 3 sets while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t conceded a set so far. Sabalenka has played 3 set(s) less than Pegula (10 vs 13). Therefore, Sabalenka played 58 games less than Pegula. Aryna scored 108 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Jessica bagged 212 winners (46%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Pegula
Aces	18	20
Avg per match	3.6	4
1st in	158/232	280/406
%1st in	68%	69%
1st pts	108/158	212/280
%1st pts	68%	76%
2nd pts	45/74	65/126
%2nd pts	61%	52%

Sabalenka blasted 18 aces (3.6 per match). Pegula recorded 20 aces (4 per match). Sabalenka won 68% points behind her first serve. She quite strong on her second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Pegula won 76% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Pegula
Won	22	20
Converted	22/40	20/45
% Converted	55%	44%
Conceded	23	27
Saved	16	18
% Saved	70%	67%
Times Broken	7	9

Aryna broke her opponents 22 times with a 55% conversion rate. The Belarussian lost her serve 7 times and she saved 70% of the break points that she conceded. The American broke her opponents 20 times with a 44% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R2 Tomova	R3 Gabriela Ruse	R4 Collins	1/4 Zheng	1/2 Paolini	Total
Score	6-3 6-0	6-1 ret.	6-4 6-4	6-2 7-5	6-2 6-2
Tot Set	2	1	2	2	2	9
Tot Games	15	7	20	20	16	78
pts	60-33	32-17	64-51	73-52	66-44	295-197
Total points	93	49	115	125	110	492
Winners	16	12	28	21	31	108
%Winners	27%	38%	44%	29%	47%	37%
SERVE
Aces	1	3	7	1	6	18
Double Faults	0	1	0	0	2	3
1st in	24/41	17/28	37/53	40/59	40/51	158/232
% 1st in	59%	61%	70%	68%	78%	68%
1st pts	16/24	12/17	28/37	21/40	31/40	108/158
% 1st pts	67%	71%	76%	53%	78%	68%
2nd pts	12/17	7/11	9/16	12/19	5/11	45/74
% 2nd pts	71%	64%	56%	63%	45%	61%
Breaks
Won	6	2	3	7	4	22
Converted	6/11	2/3	3/9	7/12	4/5	22/40
Converted %	55%	67%	33%	58%	80%	55%
Conceded	4	3	1	11	4	23
Saved	2/4	3/3	0/1	7/11	4/4	16
Saved %	50%	100%	0%	64%	100%	63%
Times Broken	2	0	1	4	0	7

Pegula
	R2 Pera	R3 Kalinskaya	R4 Kostyuk	1/4 Raducanu	1/2 Eala	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	6-73 6-2 7-62	6-2 6-3	6-4 6-73 6-2	7-63 5-7 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	2	3	3	13
Tot Games	20	34	17	31	34	136
pts	68-52	109-90	67-45	105-90	110-98	459-375
Total points	120	199	112	195	208	834
Winners	28	51	23	59	51	212
%Winners	41%	47%	34%	56%	46%	46%
SERVE
Aces	2	5	1	6	6	20
Double Faults	1	4	2	1	2	10
1st in	36/59	62/95	32/44	80/102	70/106	280/406
% 1st in	61%	65%	73%	78%	66%	69%
1st pts	28/36	51/62	23/32	59/80	51/70	212/280
% 1st pts	78%	82%	72%	74%	73%	76%
2nd pts	15/23	15/33	9/12	11/22	15/36	65/126
% 2nd pts	65%	45%	75%	50%	42%	52%
Breaks
Won	2	4	5	4	5	20
Converted	2/3	4/7	5/19	4/9	5/7	20/45
Converted %	67%	57%	26%	44%	71%	44%
Conceded	1	4	4	6	12	27
Saved	1/1	2/4	3/4	5/6	7/12	18
Saved %	100%	50%	75%	83%	58%	73%
Times Broken	0	2	1	1	5	9

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jessica PegulaPegula (6-2) – H2H and prediction