Hugo Grenier and Bernard Tomic will square off in the quarter of the Morelia Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 3:30 pm on ESTADIO TRES MARIAS. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Hugo Grenier who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Hugo Grenier is the pick to win this match.
Hugo Grenier -> 1.52
Bernard Tomic -> 2.4
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Prediction and head to head Hugo Grenier vs. Bernard Tomic
This will be the 3rd time that Hugo Grenier and Bernard Tomic square off. The head to head is 2-0 for Grenier (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Grenier won 6-2 6-4 in the 1st round in the Chicago Challenger back in 2024.
Hugo Grenier
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-11 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-33 | 25-15 | 2-8 | 9-8 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 27-33 | 15-8 | 7-10 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-35 | 21-14 | 9-10 | 1-8 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 43-28 | 22-9 | 9-8 | 12-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 204, Grenier reached the quarter after beating Kiranpal Pannu 6-4 6-4 and Christopher Eubanks 6-4 6-4.
In the 2nd round, Hugo had a good straight sets win against Eubanks (6-4 6-4). During the match, Grenier scored 66 points vs Eubanks’s 56. Grenier was extremely aggressive to blast 21 winners.
Regarding the service games, Grenier bagged 6 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Hugo Grenier was exceptionally effective on serve to win 72% (21/29) of his 1st serve and 75% (24/32) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The French player broke Eubanks twice after converting 50% of his break points (2/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The French player hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to conquer 54% of the points he played.
Grenier has winning match record in the last 10 years having won 57% of his matches (351-262). 5-3 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Grenier has a compiled 189-95 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Hugo has an overall 11-9 win-loss record in 2025, 5-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Morelia Challenger
Hugo has never competed in this tournament before.
Bernard Tomic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8-10 | 7-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 50-29 | 34-19 | 12-5 | 4-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-27 | 35-19 | 4-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 26-12 | 24-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 9-12 | 4-4 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 219, Tomic reached the quarter after defeating Shintaro Mochizuki 6-1 6-7(3) 6-4 and Mark Lajal 6-2 3-6 7-6(6).
In the 2nd round, The Australian defeated Lajal (6-2 3-6 7-66). During the match Tomic scored 97 points vs Lajal’s 85. Tomic was very aggressive to blast 43 winners.
About the serving games, Tomic scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Bernard Tomic was exceptionally effective on serve to win 75% (43/57) of his 1st serve and 62% (18/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Tomic broke Lajal 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Australian has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Tomic has a compiled 7-8 win-loss record in 2025, 6-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Grenier | Tomic |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 40 | 60 |
| Pts | 124-104 | 209-183 |
| Total Points | 228 | 392 |
| Winners | 39 | 84 |
| %Winners | 31% | 40% |
Both Grenier and Tomic played 2 matches. At the moment, Bernard Tomic lost 2 sets while Hugo Grenier hasn’t dropped a set so far. Grenier has played 2 set(s) less than Tomic (4 vs 6). Therefore, Grenier played 20 games less than Tomic. Grenier scored 39 winners (31% of the total points). On the other side, Tomic made 84 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Grenier | Tomic |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 6.5 | 5 |
| 1st in | 52/114 | 111/188 |
| %1st in | 46% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 39/52 | 84/111 |
| %1st pts | 75% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 43/62 | 42/77 |
| %2nd pts | 69% | 55% |
Grenier blasted 13 aces (6.5 per match). Tomic managed to score 10 aces (5 per match). Grenier won 75% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 69% of the points. On the other side, Tomic won 76% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Grenier | Tomic |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 8 |
| Converted | 5/9 | 8/19 |
| % Converted | 56% | 42% |
| Conceded | 3 | 16 |
| Saved | 2 | 12 |
| % Saved | 67% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 |
The French player broke his opponents 5 times with a 56% conversion rate. The French player surrendered his serve once and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded. Tomic broke his opponents 8 times with a 42% conversion rate. Tomic conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| Grenier | ||||
| R1 Pannu |
R2 Eubanks |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | 40 | |
| pts | 58-48 | 66-56 | 124-104 | |
| Total points | 106 | 122 | 228 | |
| Winners | 18 | 21 | 39 | |
| %Winners | 31% | 32% | 31% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 7 | 6 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 23/53 | 29/61 | 52/114 | |
| % 1st in | 43% | 48% | 46% | |
| 1st pts | 18/23 | 21/29 | 39/52 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 72% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/30 | 24/32 | 43/62 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 75% | 69% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 2/4 | 5/9 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 50% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 100% | 50% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tomic | ||||
| R1 Mochizuki |
R2 Lajal |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-73 6-4 | 6-2 3-6 7-66 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 30 | 60 | |
| pts | 112-98 | 97-85 | 209-183 | |
| Total points | 210 | 182 | 392 | |
| Winners | 41 | 43 | 84 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 44% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 9 | 1 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 54/102 | 57/86 | 111/188 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 66% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 41/54 | 43/57 | 84/111 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 75% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 24/48 | 18/29 | 42/77 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 62% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 3/6 | 8/19 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 50% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 4 | 16 | |
| Saved | 10/12 | 2/4 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 83% | 50% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWWWLLWLL
LWLWWLWLLW Tennis Scores in Morelia Challenger
- Marc-Andrea Huesler/Stefano NapolitanoHuesler/Stefano Napolitano – Ray Ho/Reese StalderHo/Reese Stalder (7-64 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- James DuckworthDuckworth – Juan Hernandez SerranoHernandez Serrano (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Bernard TomicTomic – Hugo GrenierGrenier (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Dmitry PopkoPopko – Thiago Agustin TiranteAgustin Tirante (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Marc-Andrea HueslerHuesler – Beibit ZhukayevZhukayev (1-1) – H2H and prediction
