Pablo Carreno-Busta and Marin Cilic will play each other in the quarter of the Girona Challenger for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 4:00 pm on PISTA CENTRAL. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.61
Marin Cilic -> 2.2
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Marin Cilic
This will be the 7th time that Pablo Carreno-Busta and Marin Cilic fight against each other. The head to head is 5-1 for Cilic (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they competed against each other, Cilic won 5-7 6-3 7-6(5) in the Rubber 2 in 0 back in 2022.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
16 - 8win/loss
110
10
LWWLLWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-8 | 13-5 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 109, Pablo reached the quarter after defeating Pedro Cachin 6-1 6-3 and Iliyan Radulov 6-2 5-7 7-6(4).
In the 2nd round, Carreno-Busta defeated Radulov (6-2 5-7 7-64). During the match, Carreno-Busta scored 132 points vs Radulov’s 110. Carreno-Busta was extremely aggressive to blast 48 winners.
Talking about the service games, Carreno-Busta fired 8 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Pablo Carreno-Busta was exceptionally effective on serve to win 77% (48/62) of his 1st serve and 52% (15/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 3 times. Carreno-Busta broke Radulov 4 times after converting 22% of his break points (4/18).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carreno-Busta has conceded 1 set in this event to conquer 56% of the points he played.
Carreno-Busta has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (267-175). 2-1 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Carreno-Busta has a compiled 97-60 match record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title the Tenerife 1 Challenger where he overcame Alejandro Moro Canas in the final 6-3 6-2 and the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he overcame Filip Misolic in the final 6-3 6-2.
Carreno-Busta has an aggregate 16-7 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Girona Challenger
Pablo has never competed in this tournament before.
Marin Cilic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7-3 | 2-2 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 9-11 | 8-6 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 1-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 32-21 | 16-10 | 9-5 | 4-5 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-23 | 6-9 | 5-5 | 13-7 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 143, Marin got to the quarter after beating Carlos Taberner 6-4 6-3 and Marton Fucsovics 6-7(5) 7-6(4) 6-2.
In the 2nd round against Fucsovics, Marin recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-75 7-64 6-2). During the match Cilic scored 117 points vs Fucsovics’s 103. The Croatian was very aggressive to blast 46 winners.
Talking about serving, Cilic fired 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Marin Cilic lost the serve 3 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Cilic put 61% of his first serves in, winning 66% (46/70) of the points behind his 1st serve and 59% (26/44) on the 2nd serve. Marin broke Fucsovics 5 times after converting 50% of his break points (5/10).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Croatian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
Marin has a composed 4-3 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Carreno-Busta | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 49 | 53 |
| Pts | 201-160 | 180-149 |
| Total Points | 361 | 329 |
| Winners | 75 | 65 |
| %Winners | 37% | 36% |
Both Carreno-Busta and Cilic played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Pablo Carreno-Busta conceded 1 set, while Marin Cilic dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Carreno-Busta and Cilic have played the same amount of sets 5. However, Carreno-Busta played 4 games less than Cilic. Pablo scored 75 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Cilic managed to score 65 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Carreno-Busta | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 11 |
| Avg per match | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| 1st in | 98/144 | 98/169 |
| %1st in | 68% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 75/98 | 65/98 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 25/46 | 43/71 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 61% |
Carreno-Busta made 9 aces (4.5 per match). Cilic blasted 11 aces (5.5 per match). Carreno-Busta won 77% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Cilic won 66% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Carreno-Busta | Cilic |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 9 |
| Converted | 8/26 | 9/17 |
| % Converted | 31% | 53% |
| Conceded | 8 | 12 |
| Saved | 5 | 7 |
| % Saved | 63% | 58% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 5 |
The Spaniard broke his opponents 8 times with a 31% conversion rate. Carreno-Busta conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. The Croatian broke his opponents 9 times with a 53% conversion rate. The Croatian conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 58% of the break points that he conceded.
| Carreno-Busta | ||||
| R1 Cachin |
R2 Radulov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-3 | 6-2 5-7 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 33 | 49 | |
| pts | 69-50 | 132-110 | 201-160 | |
| Total points | 119 | 242 | 361 | |
| Winners | 27 | 48 | 75 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 36% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 8 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 36/53 | 62/91 | 98/144 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 68% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 27/36 | 48/62 | 75/98 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/17 | 15/29 | 25/46 | |
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 52% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 4/18 | 8/26 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 22% | 31% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 2/5 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 40% | 70% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Cilic | ||||
| R1 Taberner |
R2 Fucsovics |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | 6-75 7-64 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 34 | 53 | |
| pts | 63-46 | 117-103 | 180-149 | |
| Total points | 109 | 220 | 329 | |
| Winners | 19 | 46 | 65 | |
| %Winners | 30% | 39% | 36% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 6 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 28/55 | 70/114 | 98/169 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 61% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 19/28 | 46/70 | 65/98 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 66% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/27 | 26/44 | 43/71 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 59% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Converted | 4/7 | 5/10 | 9/17 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 50% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 8 | 12 | |
| Saved | 2/4 | 5/8 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 63% | 57% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLLWWWWW
WWWWWLLWWL Tennis Scores in Girona Challenger
- Matej Vocel/Szymon WalkowVocel/Szymon Walkow – Karol Drzewiecki/Piotr MatuszewskiDrzewiecki/Piotr Matuszewski (7-64 ret.) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Marin CilicCilic – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (5-1) – H2H and prediction
- Dusan LajovicLajovic – Timofey SkatovSkatov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jesper De JongDe Jong – Sebastian OfnerOfner (0-1) – H2H and prediction
