Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini will square off in the semifinal of the Miami Open for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 3:00 pm on STADIUM. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.186
Jasmine Paolini -> 4.75

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jasmine Paolini

This will be the 6^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini square off. The head to head is 3-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats),but they are 1-1 on hard.

The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 6-3 7-5 in the R in Riyadh back in 2024.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini – Riyadh 04-November-2024

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 Sabalenka got to the semifinal after beating Unknown Player bye, Viktoriya Tomova 6-3 6-0, Elena Gabriela Ruse 6-1 ret., Danielle Rose Collins 6-4 6-4 and Qinwen Zheng 6-2 7-5

.

In the quarter, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Zheng (6-2 7-5). During the match, Sabalenka scored 73 points vs Zheng’s 52. Sabalenka was very aggressive to blast 21 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka scored just 1 ace during the match and she was quite solid in conceding no double faults. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 4 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 68% of her first serves in, winning 53% (21/40) of the points behind her 1st serve and 63% (12/19) on the 2nd serve. Aryna broke Zheng 7 times after converting 58% of her break points (7/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Aryna hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to win 59% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a tremendous win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (395-172). 21-4 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has an aggregate 248-96 record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Brisbane where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2.

The Belarussian has an aggregate 21-4 win-loss record in 2025, 21-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Miami

Jasmine Paolini

Ranked no. 7, the Italian reached the semifinal after beating Unknown Player bye, Rebecca Sramkova 6-4 6-4, Ons Jabeur 4-3 ret., Naomi Osaka 3-6 6-4 6-4 and Magda Linette 6-3 6-2.

In the quarter, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Linette (6-3 6-2). During the match Paolini scored 66 points vs Linette’s 53. The Italian was very aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Talking about serving, Paolini bagged 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Jasmine Paolini lost the serve once and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Paolini put 66% of her first serves in, winning 65% (32/49) of the points behind her 1st serve and 52% (13/25) on the 2nd serve. Jasmine broke Linette 4 times after converting 67% of her break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.

The Italian has a compiled 12-5 win-loss record in 2025, 12-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Miami

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Paolini
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	8	9
Tot Games	62	73
Pts	229-153	265-247
Total Points	382	512
Winners	77	128
%Winners	34%	48%

Both Sabalenka and Paolini played 4 matches. At the moment, Jasmine Paolini dropped 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t conceded a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Paolini (8 vs 9). Therefore, Sabalenka played 11 games less than Paolini. The Belarussian scored 77 winners (34% of the total points). On the other side, Paolini scored 128 winners (48%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Paolini
Aces	12	4
Avg per match	3	1
1st in	118/181	203/293
%1st in	65%	69%
1st pts	77/118	128/203
%1st pts	65%	63%
2nd pts	40/63	42/90
%2nd pts	63%	47%

Sabalenka blasted 12 aces (3 per match). Paolini fired 4 aces (1 per match). Sabalenka won 65% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Paolini won 63% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 47% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Paolini
Won	18	14
Converted	18/35	14/27
% Converted	51%	52%
Conceded	19	38
Saved	12	29
% Saved	63%	76%
Times Broken	7	9

Aryna broke her opponents 18 times with a 51% conversion rate. Sabalenka surrendered her serve 7 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded. The Italian broke her opponents 14 times with a 52% conversion rate. The Italian conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 76% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R2 Tomova	R3 Gabriela Ruse	R4 Collins	1/4 Zheng	Total
Score	6-3 6-0	6-1 ret.	6-4 6-4	6-2 7-5
Tot Set	2	1	2	2	7
Tot Games	15	7	20	20	62
pts	60-33	32-17	64-51	73-52	229-153
Total points	93	49	115	125	382
Winners	16	12	28	21	77
%Winners	27%	38%	44%	29%	34%
SERVE
Aces	1	3	7	1	12
Double Faults	0	1	0	0	1
1st in	24/41	17/28	37/53	40/59	118/181
% 1st in	59%	61%	70%	68%	65%
1st pts	16/24	12/17	28/37	21/40	77/118
% 1st pts	67%	71%	76%	53%	65%
2nd pts	12/17	7/11	9/16	12/19	40/63
% 2nd pts	71%	64%	56%	63%	63%
Breaks
Won	6	2	3	7	18
Converted	6/11	2/3	3/9	7/12	18/35
Converted %	55%	67%	33%	58%	51%
Conceded	4	3	1	11	19
Saved	2/4	3/3	0/1	7/11	12
Saved %	50%	100%	0%	64%	54%
Times Broken	2	0	1	4	7

Paolini
	R2 Sramkova	R3 Jabeur	R4 Osaka	1/4 Linette	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	4-3 ret.	3-6 6-4 6-4	6-3 6-2
Tot Set	2	1	3	2	8
Tot Games	20	7	29	17	73
pts	80-71	22-22	97-101	66-53	265-247
Total points	151	44	198	119	512
Winners	32	12	52	32	128
%Winners	40%	55%	54%	48%	48%
SERVE
Aces	1	0	1	2	4
Double Faults	2	1	2	2	7
1st in	52/77	18/28	84/114	49/74	203/293
% 1st in	68%	64%	74%	66%	69%
1st pts	32/52	12/18	52/84	32/49	128/203
% 1st pts	62%	67%	62%	65%	63%
2nd pts	9/25	4/10	16/30	13/25	42/90
% 2nd pts	36%	40%	53%	52%	47%
Breaks
Won	6	1	3	4	14
Converted	6/15	1/1	3/5	4/6	14/27
Converted %	40%	100%	60%	67%	52%
Conceded	12	3	15	8	38
Saved	8/12	2/3	12/15	7/8	29
Saved %	67%	67%	80%	88%	76%
Times Broken	4	1	3	1	9

Tennis Scores in Miami

• Alexandra EalaEala – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
• Katerina Siniakova/Taylor TownsendSiniakova/Taylor Townsend – Caroline Dolehide/Storm HunterDolehide/Storm Hunter (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Qinwen ZhengZheng (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
• Cristina Bucsa/Miyu KatoBucsa/Miyu Kato – Elise Mertens/Shuai ZhangMertens/Shuai Zhang (4-6 7-5 10-8) – See score progression
• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Magda LinetteLinette (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
• Mariano KestelboimKestelboim – Ricardo Rodriguez-PaceRodriguez-Pace (6-1 3-6 6-0) – See score progression
• Aziz DougazDougaz – Michal DembekDembek (6-3 7-6⁵) – See score progression
• Mateo Nicolas MartinezNicolas Martinez – Luca GiacominiGiacomini (4-6 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Skander MansouriMansouri – Imanol Lopez MorilloLopez Morillo (6-2 7-6¹) – See score progression
• Alexandra EalaEala – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (6-2 7-5) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Jessica PegulaPegula (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (3-2) – H2H and prediction