Matias Soto and Valerio Aboian will face off in the 2nd round of the Concepcion Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 1:30 pm on CANCHA CENTRAL. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Matias Soto who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Matias Soto is the pick to win this match.
Matias Soto -> 1.47
Valerio Aboian -> 2.53
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Prediction and head to head Matias Soto vs. Valerio Aboian
This will be the 2nd time that Matias Soto and Valerio Aboian play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Aboian (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Aboian won 6-7(5) 6-4 6-1 in the quarter in M15 Concepcion back in 2023.
Matias Soto
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9-9 | 0-0 | 9-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 57-27 | 10-9 | 43-17 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 18-19 | 4-4 | 14-14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-7 | 7-3 | 14-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 12-9 | 6-3 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 244 (career-high), Soto reached the 2nd round after defeating Petr Nesterov 6-1 6-4.
In the 1st round, The Chilean had a good straight sets win against Nesterov (6-1 6-4). During the match, Soto scored 70 points vs Nesterov’s 52. Matias was pretty aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Talking about the service games, Soto wasn’t able to score even 1 ace throughout the encounter and he committed only 3 double faults. Matias Soto lost the serve once and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Soto put 73% of his first serves in, winning 69% (35/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (9/19) on the 2nd serve. The Chilean broke Nesterov 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Soto has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 62% of his matches (129-80). 3-4 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Soto has a composed87-49 match record in the last 8 years on clay.
Soto has a compiled 3-7 win-loss record in 2025, 3-4 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Concepcion Challenger
Valerio Aboian
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15-11 | 0-0 | 15-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-35 | 0-2 | 37-33 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 54-33 | 0-0 | 54-33 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 48-22 | 0-0 | 48-22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 42-19 | 0-0 | 42-19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 483, Valerio reached the 2nd round after beating Milledge Cossu 6-2 6-1, Paulo Saraiva Dos Santos 7-6(5) 6-0 and Facundo Mena 6-3 5-7 6-1.
In the 1st round, Valerio defeated Mena (6-3 5-7 6-1). During the match Aboian scored 104 points vs Mena’s 84. Aboian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 42 winners.
Talking about serving, Aboian made 6 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Valerio Aboian lost the serve 3 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Aboian put 67% of his first serves in, winning 68% (42/62) of the points behind his 1st serve and 52% (16/31) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Mena 6 times after converting 46% of his break points (6/13).
Valerio’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in M25 Asuncion.
Valerio has a composed 12-9 win-loss record in 2025, 12-9 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Concepcion Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Soto | Aboian |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 17 | 62 |
| Pts | 70-52 | 231-166 |
| Total Points | 122 | 397 |
| Winners | 35 | 83 |
| %Winners | 50% | 36% |
Soto played 1 match while Aboian competed in 3 matches. Aboian started his run from the qualifications while Soto had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Valerio Aboian conceded 1 set while Matias Soto hasn’t conceded a set so far. Soto has played 5 set(s) less than Aboian (2 vs 7). Therefore, Soto played 45 games less than Aboian. The Chilean scored 35 winners (50% of the total points). On the other side, Valerio made 83 winners (36%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Soto | Aboian |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 0 | 12 |
| Avg per match | 0 | 4 |
| 1st in | 51/70 | 115/189 |
| %1st in | 73% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 35/51 | 83/115 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 9/19 | 48/74 |
| %2nd pts | 47% | 65% |
Soto didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Aboian struck 12 aces (4 per match). Soto won 69% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, Aboian won 72% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 65% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Soto | Aboian |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 14 |
| Converted | 4/10 | 14/27 |
| % Converted | 40% | 52% |
| Conceded | 7 | 9 |
| Saved | 6 | 5 |
| % Saved | 86% | 56% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 |
Soto broke his opponent 4 times with a 40% conversion rate. Matias conceded his serve once and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. Valerio broke his opponents 14 times with a 52% conversion rate. Aboian conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded.
| Soto | |||
| R1 Nesterov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 17 | |
| pts | 70-52 | 70-52 | |
| Total points | 122 | 122 | |
| Winners | 35 | 35 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 50% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 51/70 | 51/70 | |
| % 1st in | 73% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 35/51 | 35/51 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/19 | 9/19 | |
| % 2nd pts | 47% | 47% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 4/10 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Aboian | |||||
| Q1 Cossu |
Q3 Saraiva Dos Santos |
R1 Mena |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-1 | 7-65 6-0 | 6-3 5-7 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 19 | 28 | 62 | |
| pts | 56-29 | 71-53 | 104-84 | 231-166 | |
| Total points | 85 | 124 | 188 | 397 | |
| Winners | 20 | 21 | 42 | 83 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 30% | 40% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 24/40 | 29/56 | 62/93 | 115/189 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 52% | 67% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 20/24 | 21/29 | 42/62 | 83/115 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 72% | 68% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/16 | 19/27 | 16/31 | 48/74 | |
| % 2nd pts | 81% | 70% | 52% | 65% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 6 | 14 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 4/9 | 6/13 | 14/27 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 44% | 46% | 52% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0/1 | 5/8 | 5 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | 63% | 63% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
WLWWWLWWWL
LWWWLWWWLL Tennis Scores in Concepcion Challenger
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