Alex De Minaur and Matteo Berrettini will fight against each other in the 4th round of the Miami Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 4:00 pm on GRANDSTAND. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.615
Matteo Berrettini -> 2.31
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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Matteo Berrettini
This will be the 5th time that Alex De Minaur and Matteo Berrettini clash against each other. The head to head is 2-2 (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they played, Berrettini won 6-3 6-4 6-4 in the 2nd round in at the Wimbledon back in 2023.
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-5 | 12-4 | 0-0 | 5-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, the Australian reached the 4th round after defeating Unknown Player bye, Bu Yunchaokete 6-4 6-4 and Joao Fonseca 5-7 7-5 6-3.
In the 3rd round against Fonseca, De Minaur recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 7-5 6-3). During the match, De Minaur scored 102 points vs Fonseca’s 89. Alex was quite aggressive to blast 38 winners.
Regarding the service games, De Minaur scored just 1 ace throughout the match and he committed only 3 double faults. Alex De Minaur lost the serve 3 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, De Minaur put 55% of his first serves in, winning 70% (38/54) of the points behind his 1st serve and 62% (28/45) on the 2nd serve. Alex broke Fonseca 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
De Minaur has surrendered 1 set in this event to win 55% of the points he played.
De Minaur has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (376-210). 12-4 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, De Minaur has a composed 183-90 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
The Australian’s best result of the year was reaching the final in Rotterdam.
Alex has a composed 17-5 win-loss record in 2025, 12-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Matteo Berrettini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8-6 | 8-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 36-13 | 7-6 | 15-1 | 8-3 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 14-12 | 9-10 | 2-0 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 32-12 | 15-9 | 4-2 | 4-1 | 9-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 41-12 | 14-5 | 13-4 | 3-2 | 11-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 30, Berrettini reached the 4th round after beating Unknown Player bye, Hugo Gaston 4-6 6-3 6-3 and Zizou Bergs 6-4 6-4.
In the 3rd round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Bergs (6-4 6-4). During the match Berrettini scored 70 points vs Bergs’s 55. Matteo was quite aggressive to blast 28 winners.
About the serving games, Berrettini made 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Matteo Berrettini was extremely efficient on serve to win 76% (28/37) of his 1st serve and 63% (12/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Matteo broke Bergs 3 times after converting 25% of his break points (3/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
The Italian has an aggregate 8-6 win-loss record in 2025, 8-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Previously, his best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 53 | 48 |
| Pts | 166-138 | 162-130 |
| Total Points | 304 | 292 |
| Winners | 66 | 71 |
| %Winners | 40% | 44% |
Both De Minaur and Berrettini played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alex De Minaur dropped 1 set, while Matteo Berrettini lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, De Minaur and Berrettini have played the same amount of sets 5. However, De Minaur played 5 games more than Berrettini. The Australian scored 66 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Matteo made 71 winners (44%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 6.5 |
| 1st in | 86/147 | 90/127 |
| %1st in | 59% | 71% |
| 1st pts | 66/86 | 71/90 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 40/61 | 23/37 |
| %2nd pts | 66% | 62% |
De Minaur managed to score 6 aces (3 per match). Berrettini recorded 13 aces (6.5 per match). De Minaur won 77% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 66% of the points. On the other side, Berrettini won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 62% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 6 |
| Converted | 6/10 | 6/22 |
| % Converted | 60% | 27% |
| Conceded | 8 | 2 |
| Saved | 5 | 0 |
| % Saved | 63% | 0% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 |
The Australian broke his opponents 6 times with a 60% conversion rate. De Minaur conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. The Italian broke his opponents 6 times with a 27% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve twice and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded.
| De Minaur | ||||
| R2 Yunchaokete |
R3 Fonseca |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 5-7 7-5 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 33 | 53 | |
| pts | 64-49 | 102-89 | 166-138 | |
| Total points | 113 | 191 | 304 | |
| Winners | 28 | 38 | 66 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 37% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 32/48 | 54/99 | 86/147 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 55% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 28/32 | 38/54 | 66/86 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 70% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/16 | 28/45 | 40/61 | |
| % 2nd pts | 75% | 62% | 66% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 4/5 | 6/10 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 80% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 8 | 8 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 5/8 | 5 | |
| Saved % | – | 63% | 32% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Berrettini | ||||
| R2 Gaston |
R3 Bergs |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-3 6-3 | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 20 | 48 | |
| pts | 92-75 | 70-55 | 162-130 | |
| Total points | 167 | 125 | 292 | |
| Winners | 43 | 28 | 71 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 40% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 10 | 3 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 53/71 | 37/56 | 90/127 | |
| % 1st in | 75% | 66% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 43/53 | 28/37 | 71/90 | |
| % 1st pts | 81% | 76% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/18 | 12/19 | 23/37 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 63% | 62% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Converted | 3/10 | 3/12 | 6/22 | |
| Converted % | 30% | 25% | 27% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 0/1 | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
WWLWWLLWWL
WWLWLWWLWW Tennis Scores in Miami
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Joao FonsecaFonseca (5-7 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Adam WaltonWalton – Chak Lam Coleman WongLam Coleman Wong (7-66 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Zizou BergsBergs (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Arthur FilsFils – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (7-611 5-7 6-2) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Tomas MachacMachac – Reilly OpelkaOpelka (7-61 6-3) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Jordan ThompsonThompson (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Jakub MensikMensik – Roman SafiullinSafiullin (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (7-5 5-7 7-61) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (4-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-73 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Tommy PaulPaul (6-2 7-64) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (6-4 7-64) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli (6-1 7-61) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – David GoffinGoffin (6-3 6-75 6-3) – See score progression
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (7-64 6-3) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Joao FonsecaFonseca (5-7 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Zizou BergsBergs (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Sebastian KordaKorda (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – (3-1) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Adam WaltonWalton (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (3-4) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Tomas MachacMachac – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (1-7) – H2H and prediction
