Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk will fight against each other in the 4th round of the Miami Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 5:30 pm on BUTCH BUCHHOLZ. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jessica Pegula who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jessica Pegula is the pick to win this match.
Jessica Pegula -> 1.34
Marta Kostyuk -> 3.26
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Prediction and head to head Jessica Pegula vs. Marta Kostyuk
This will be the 4th time that Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk clash against each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Pegula (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.
The last time that they played, Kostyuk won 7-6(4) 6-1 in the semifinal in San Diego back in 2024.
Highlights Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula – San Diego 02-March-2024
Jessica Pegula
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-5 | 17-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-16 | 29-9 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 59-18 | 45-12 | 8-4 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 42-21 | 28-15 | 11-4 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-19 | 29-12 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 4, the American reached the 4th round after defeating Unknown Player bye, Bernarda Pera 6-4 6-4 and Anna Kalinskaya 6-7(3) 6-2 7-6(2).
In the 3rd round against Kalinskaya, Jessica recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-73 6-2 7-62). During the match, Pegula scored 109 points vs Kalinskaya’s 90. Pegula was extremely aggressive to blast 51 winners.
Regarding the service games, Pegula fired 5 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Jessica Pegula lost the serve twice and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Pegula put 65% of her first serves in, winning 82% (51/62) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (15/33) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Kalinskaya 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American has dropped 1 set in this event to win 55% of the points she played.
Pegula has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (321-162). 17-5 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Pegula has a composed 221-95 record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Austin where she beat Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2.
Pegula has an aggregate 17-5 win-loss record in 2025, 17-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Marta Kostyuk
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10-7 | 10-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 34-22 | 24-14 | 8-5 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 26-22 | 22-16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 28-20 | 18-11 | 3-4 | 4-3 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-17 | 8-9 | 10-4 | 3-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 29, the Ukrainian got to the 4th round after defeating Unknown Player bye, Kimberly Birrell 7-5 4-6 6-3 and Anna Blinkova 6-2 6-1.
In the 3rd round, Kostyuk had a good straight sets win against Blinkova (6-2 6-1). During the match Kostyuk scored 55 points vs Blinkova’s 39. Kostyuk was quite aggressive to blast 21 winners.
Talking about serving, Kostyuk blasted 5 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Marta Kostyuk lost the serve once and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Kostyuk put 69% of her first serves in, winning 64% (21/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 60% (9/15) on the 2nd serve. The Ukrainian broke Blinkova 5 times after converting 71% of her break points (5/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Marta has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
Kostyuk has a composed 10-7 win-loss record in 2025, 10-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Previously, her best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2022 and 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 54 | 46 |
| Pts | 177-142 | 147-131 |
| Total Points | 319 | 278 |
| Winners | 79 | 55 |
| %Winners | 45% | 37% |
Both Pegula and Kostyuk played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Jessica Pegula surrendered 1 set, while Marta Kostyuk conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Pegula and Kostyuk have played the same amount of sets 5. However, Pegula played 8 games more than Kostyuk. The American scored 79 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, Marta made 55 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 7 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 3.5 | 4 |
| 1st in | 98/154 | 83/145 |
| %1st in | 64% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 79/98 | 55/83 |
| %1st pts | 81% | 66% |
| 2nd pts | 30/56 | 29/62 |
| %2nd pts | 54% | 47% |
Pegula scored 7 aces (3.5 per match). Kostyuk blasted 8 aces (4 per match). Pegula won 81% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Kostyuk won 66% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 47% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Pegula | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 12 |
| Converted | 6/10 | 12/16 |
| % Converted | 60% | 75% |
| Conceded | 5 | 16 |
| Saved | 3 | 10 |
| % Saved | 60% | 63% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 6 |
Jessica broke her opponents 6 times with a 60% conversion rate. Pegula lost her serve twice and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded. Kostyuk broke her opponents 12 times with a 75% conversion rate. Marta conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded.
| Pegula | ||||
| R2 Pera |
R3 Kalinskaya |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 6-73 6-2 7-62 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 34 | 54 | |
| pts | 68-52 | 109-90 | 177-142 | |
| Total points | 120 | 199 | 319 | |
| Winners | 28 | 51 | 79 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 47% | 45% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 36/59 | 62/95 | 98/154 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 65% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 28/36 | 51/62 | 79/98 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 82% | 81% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/23 | 15/33 | 30/56 | |
| % 2nd pts | 65% | 45% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Converted | 2/3 | 4/7 | 6/10 | |
| Converted % | 67% | 57% | 60% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 2/4 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 50% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Kostyuk | ||||
| R2 Birrell |
R3 Blinkova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 4-6 6-3 | 6-2 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 15 | 46 | |
| pts | 92-92 | 55-39 | 147-131 | |
| Total points | 184 | 94 | 278 | |
| Winners | 34 | 21 | 55 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 38% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 8 | 3 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 50/97 | 33/48 | 83/145 | |
| % 1st in | 52% | 69% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 34/50 | 21/33 | 55/83 | |
| % 1st pts | 68% | 64% | 66% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/47 | 9/15 | 29/62 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 60% | 47% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 7 | 5 | 12 | |
| Converted | 7/9 | 5/7 | 12/16 | |
| Converted % | 78% | 71% | 75% | |
| Conceded | 13 | 3 | 16 | |
| Saved | 8/13 | 2/3 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 62% | 67% | 65% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 1 | 6 | |
Head 2 Head
WWLWWWWWWW
WWLWWLLWLW Tennis Scores in Miami
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Elise MertensMertens (7-62 6-1) – See score progression
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Mccartney KesslerKessler (6-1 3-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (6-2 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Paula BadosaBadosa – Clara TausonTauson (6-3 7-63) – See score progression
- Alexandra EalaEala – Madison KeysKeys (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (6-73 6-2 7-62) – See score progression
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (7-65 2-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Anna BlinkovaBlinkova (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Ons JabeurJabeur (4-3 ret.) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse (6-1 ret.) – See score progression
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Hailey BaptisteBaptiste (7-66 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Maria SakkariSakkari (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Ashlyn KruegerKrueger – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Magda LinetteLinette – Linda FruhvirtovaFruhvirtova (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Rebeka MasarovaMasarova (6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Taylor TownsendTownsend (6-1 7-63) – See score progression
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Mccartney KesslerKessler (6-1 3-0 ret.) – See score progression
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Mirra AndreevaAndreeva (7-6(5) 2-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (6-7(3) 6-2 7-6(2)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (6-0) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Magda LinetteLinette (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Jessica PegulaPegula (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-2) – H2H and prediction
