Jasmine Paolini and Naomi Osaka will play each other in the 4th round of the Miami Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 11:00 am on GRANDSTAND. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Naomi Osaka who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Naomi Osaka is the pick to win this match.
Naomi Osaka -> 1.66
Jasmine Paolini -> 2.22
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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Naomi Osaka
There is no head to head record between Jasmine Paolini and Naomi Osaka since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Jasmine Paolini
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10-5 | 10-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 42-21 | 19-10 | 12-5 | 3-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-30 | 20-16 | 16-8 | 5-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-25 | 14-11 | 10-10 | 6-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-24 | 17-13 | 12-7 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 7, Paolini reached the 4th round after defeating Unknown Player bye, Rebecca Sramkova 6-4 6-4 and Ons Jabeur 4-3 ret..
In the 3rd round against Jabeur, Jasmine had a free pass after Jabeur retired on a 4-3 . scoreline.
Paolini has good match record in the last 10 years having won 58% of her matches (320-236). 10-5 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Paolini has a compiled 114-91 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
The Italian has a composed 10-5 win-loss record in 2025, 10-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Naomi Osaka
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9-3 | 9-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 22-18 | 13-10 | 5-5 | 1-0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 14-9 | 13-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 18-6 | 16-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 61, Osaka reached the 4th round after defeating Yuliia Starodubtseva 3-6 6-4 6-3, Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 6-4 and Hailey Baptiste 7-6(6) 3-6 6-4.
In the 3rd round, The Japanese defeated Baptiste (7-66 3-6 6-4). During the match Osaka scored 112 points vs Baptiste’s 110. The Japanese was quite aggressive to blast 42 winners.
About the serving games, Osaka fired 13 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Naomi Osaka lost the serve 5 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Osaka put 59% of her first serves in, winning 69% (42/61) of the points behind her 1st serve and 51% (22/43) on the 2nd serve. Naomi broke Baptiste 5 times after converting 38% of her break points (5/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Osaka has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.
The Japanese’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in Auckland.
Osaka has an overall 9-3 win-loss record in 2025, 9-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Previously, her best result was reaching the final in 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 27 | 78 |
| Pts | 102-93 | 272-239 |
| Total Points | 195 | 511 |
| Winners | 44 | 103 |
| %Winners | 43% | 38% |
Paolini played 2 matches while Osaka competed in 3 matches. At the moment, Naomi Osaka lost 2 sets while Jasmine Paolini hasn’t lost a set so far. Paolini has played 4 set(s) less than Osaka (4 vs 8). Therefore, Paolini played 51 games less than Osaka. Paolini scored 44 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Osaka blasted 103 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 29 |
| Avg per match | 0.5 | 9.7 |
| 1st in | 70/105 | 141/246 |
| %1st in | 67% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 44/70 | 103/141 |
| %1st pts | 63% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 13/35 | 55/105 |
| %2nd pts | 37% | 52% |
Paolini recorded 1 ace (0.5 per match). Osaka also scored 29 aces (9.7 per match). Paolini won 63% points on her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 37% of the points. On the other side, Osaka won 73% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Paolini | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 13 |
| Converted | 7/16 | 13/29 |
| % Converted | 44% | 45% |
| Conceded | 15 | 23 |
| Saved | 10 | 14 |
| % Saved | 67% | 61% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 9 |
Jasmine broke her opponents 7 times with a 44% conversion rate. Jasmine conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 67% of the break points that she conceded. The Japanese broke her opponents 13 times with a 45% conversion rate. Naomi conceded her serve 9 times and she saved 61% of the break points that she conceded.
| Paolini | ||||
| R2 Sramkova |
R3 Jabeur |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 4-3 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 7 | 27 | |
| pts | 80-71 | 22-22 | 102-93 | |
| Total points | 151 | 44 | 195 | |
| Winners | 32 | 12 | 44 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 55% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 52/77 | 18/28 | 70/105 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 64% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 32/52 | 12/18 | 44/70 | |
| % 1st pts | 62% | 67% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/25 | 4/10 | 13/35 | |
| % 2nd pts | 36% | 40% | 37% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
| Converted | 6/15 | 1/1 | 7/16 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 100% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 3 | 15 | |
| Saved | 8/12 | 2/3 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 67% | 67% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Osaka | |||||
| R1 Starodubtseva |
R2 Samsonova |
R3 Baptiste |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-4 6-3 | 6-2 6-4 | 7-66 3-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 28 | 18 | 32 | 78 | |
| pts | 96-89 | 64-40 | 112-110 | 272-239 | |
| Total points | 185 | 104 | 222 | 511 | |
| Winners | 38 | 23 | 42 | 103 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 36% | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 10 | 6 | 13 | 29 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 51/97 | 29/45 | 61/104 | 141/246 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 64% | 59% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 38/51 | 23/29 | 42/61 | 103/141 | |
| % 1st pts | 75% | 79% | 69% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 21/46 | 12/16 | 22/43 | 55/105 | |
| % 2nd pts | 46% | 75% | 51% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | |
| Converted | 4/8 | 4/8 | 5/13 | 13/29 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 50% | 38% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 3 | 10 | 23 | |
| Saved | 7/10 | 2/3 | 5/10 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 70% | 67% | 50% | 94% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
WWLWWLWLWL
WWWLLWWLWW Tennis Scores in Miami
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (6-2 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Paula BadosaBadosa – Clara TausonTauson (6-3 7-63) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Elise MertensMertens (7-62 6-1) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Anna BlinkovaBlinkova (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Hailey BaptisteBaptiste (7-66 3-6 6-4) – See score progression
- Cori GauffGauff – Maria SakkariSakkari (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Magda LinetteLinette – Linda FruhvirtovaFruhvirtova (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse (6-1 ret.) – See score progression
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Taylor TownsendTownsend (6-1 7-63) – See score progression
- Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Rebeka MasarovaMasarova (6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Ons JabeurJabeur (4-3 ret.) – See score progression
- Ashlyn KruegerKrueger – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
- Marta KostyukKostyuk – Anna BlinkovaBlinkova (6-2 6-1) – See score progression
- Alexandra EalaEala – Madison KeysKeys (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Clara TausonTauson (6-3 7-6(3)) – See score progression
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (6-2 3-6 6-2) – See score progression
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Elise MertensMertens (7-6(2) 6-1) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Emma RaducanuRaducanu – Mccartney KesslerKessler (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Jessica PegulaPegula (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Madison KeysKeys – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (6-0) – H2H and prediction
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Cori GauffGauff – Magda LinetteLinette (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Naomi OsakaOsaka – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Elina SvitolinaSvitolina – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-2) – H2H and prediction
