Alex De Minaur and Joao Fonseca will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the Miami Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 7:00 pm on STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.65
Joao Fonseca -> 2.24
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Â
Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Joao Fonseca
There is no head to head record between Alex De Minaur and Joao Fonseca since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Alex De Minaur
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56-24 | 30-11 | 10-5 | 13-6 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 11, De Minaur got to the 3rd round after beating Unknown Player bye and Bu Yunchaokete 6-4 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Yunchaokete (6-4 6-4). During the match, De Minaur scored 64 points vs Yunchaokete’s 49. De Minaur was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Regarding the service games, De Minaur bagged 5 aces and he was pretty steady in conceding no double faults. Alex De Minaur was quite effective on serve to win 88% (28/32) of his 1st serve and 75% (12/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Australian broke Yunchaokete twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).
De Minaur has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (375-210). 11-4 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, De Minaur has an aggregate 182-90 match record in the last years on hard.
De Minaur’s best result of the year was reaching the final in Rotterdam.
De Minaur has an overall 16-5 win-loss record in 2025, 11-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Joao Fonseca
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 39-17 | 22-6 | 8-5 | 6-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-23 | 8-3 | 14-11 | 13-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 11-6 | 1-1 | 10-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 60 (career-high), Joao got to the 3rd round after beating Learner Tien 6-7(1) 6-3 6-4 and Ugo Humbert 6-4 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Fonseca had a good straight sets win against Humbert (6-4 6-3). During the match Fonseca scored 57 points vs Humbert’s 36. Fonseca was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Talking about serving, Fonseca made 5 aces and he was quite consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Joao Fonseca was extremely efficient on serve to win 96% (25/26) of his 1st serve and 79% (11/14) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Joao broke Humbert 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Fonseca has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was winning the title the Canberra Challenger where he beat Ethan Quinn in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Buenos Aires where he beat Francisco Cerundolo in the final 6-4 7-6(1) and the Phoenix Challenger where he overcame Alexander Bublik in the final 7-6(5) 7-6(0).
Fonseca has an overall 22-4 win-loss record in 2025, 17-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
The Brazilian has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Fonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 20 | 51 |
| Pts | 64-49 | 164-136 |
| Total Points | 113 | 300 |
| Winners | 28 | 70 |
| %Winners | 44% | 43% |
De Minaur played 1 match while Fonseca competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Joao Fonseca surrendered 1 set while Alex De Minaur hasn’t conceded a set so far. De Minaur has played 3 set(s) less than Fonseca (2 vs 5). Therefore, De Minaur played 31 games less than Fonseca. Alex scored 28 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The Brazilian scored 70 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Fonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 7.5 |
| 1st in | 32/48 | 89/139 |
| %1st in | 67% | 64% |
| 1st pts | 28/32 | 70/89 |
| %1st pts | 88% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 12/16 | 34/50 |
| %2nd pts | 75% | 68% |
De Minaur bagged 5 aces . Fonseca scored 15 aces (7.5 per match). De Minaur won 88% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 75% of the points. On the other side, Fonseca won 79% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 68% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Fonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 2 | 6 |
| Converted | 2/5 | 6/17 |
| % Converted | 40% | 35% |
| Conceded | 0 | 4 |
| Saved | 0 | 3 |
| % Saved | 0% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 |
De Minaur broke his opponent twice with a 40% conversion rate. The Australian quite strong on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 0 break points. The Brazilian broke his opponents 6 times with a 35% conversion rate. Joao conceded his serve once and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.
| De Minaur | |||
| R2 Yunchaokete |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | |
| pts | 64-49 | 64-49 | |
| Total points | 113 | 113 | |
| Winners | 28 | 28 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 5 | 5 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 32/48 | 32/48 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 28/32 | 28/32 | |
| % 1st pts | 88% | 88% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/16 | 12/16 | |
| % 2nd pts | 75% | 75% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 2/5 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 0 | |
| Saved % | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Fonseca | ||||
| R1 Tien |
R2 Humbert |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-71 6-3 6-4 | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 19 | 51 | |
| pts | 107-100 | 57-36 | 164-136 | |
| Total points | 207 | 93 | 300 | |
| Winners | 45 | 25 | 70 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 44% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 10 | 5 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 63/99 | 26/40 | 89/139 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 65% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 45/63 | 25/26 | 70/89 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 96% | 79% | |
| 2nd pts | 23/36 | 11/14 | 34/50 | |
| % 2nd pts | 64% | 79% | 68% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Converted | 3/12 | 3/5 | 6/17 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 60% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 0/0 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 75% | – | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLLLWWLWW
LWWWWWLWWW Tennis Scores in Miami
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (6-73 6-4 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Jordan ThompsonThompson (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Reilly OpelkaOpelka – Tomas MachacMachac (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Roman SafiullinSafiullin – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Zizou BergsBergs (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (4-6) – H2H and prediction
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Gael MonfilsMonfils (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Adam WaltonWalton – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Tommy PaulPaul (4-2) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – David GoffinGoffin (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (3-3) – H2H and prediction
