Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime will play each other in the 3rd round of the Miami Open for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 1:30 pm on BUTCH BUCHHOLZ. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Felix Auger-Aliassime who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Felix Auger-Aliassime is the pick to win this match.
Felix Auger-Aliassime -> 1.6
Lorenzo Musetti -> 2.34
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime
This will be the 7th time that Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime square off. The head to head is 3-3 for Musetti and Auger-Aliassime (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they competed against each other, Musetti won 6-4 1-6 6-3 in the Bro. in Paris back in 2024.
Lorenzo Musetti
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7-4 | 6-4 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-30 | 13-12 | 18-10 | 3-5 | 12-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 32-29 | 10-10 | 16-11 | 0-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 44-30 | 11-10 | 21-7 | 12-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 36-31 | 9-8 | 17-12 | 10-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 16, the Italian got to the 3rd round after beating Unknown Player bye and Quentin Halys 3-6 7-6(4) 7-5.
In the 2nd round against Halys, Lorenzo recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-64 7-5). During the match, Musetti scored 113 points vs Halys’s 112. Lorenzo was very aggressive to blast 53 winners.
Regarding the service games, Musetti struck 4 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Lorenzo Musetti lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 66% of his first serves in, winning 67% (53/79) of the points behind his 1st serve and 61% (25/41) on the 2nd serve. Lorenzo broke Halys twice after converting 33% of his break points (2/6).
Musetti has a winning record in the last 8 years having won 58% of his matches (226-164). 5-3 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Musetti has an overall55-49 record in the last 8 years on hard.
Musetti has a compiled 6-3 win-loss record in 2025, 5-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Felix Auger-Aliassime
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-7 | 13-6 | 0-0 | 4-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 32-25 | 6-10 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 23-19 | 13-13 | 1-3 | 9-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 60-27 | 14-9 | 11-7 | 31-7 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-24 | 19-10 | 4-6 | 5-5 | 10-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 19, Felix reached the 3rd round after defeating Unknown Player bye and Tristan Schoolkate 6-4 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The Canadian had a good straight sets win against Schoolkate (6-4 6-4). During the match Auger-Aliassime scored 69 points vs Schoolkate’s 52. The Canadian was very aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Talking about serving, Auger-Aliassime fired 6 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Felix Auger-Aliassime was very efficient on serve to win 86% (32/37) of his 1st serve and 69% (9/13) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Felix broke Schoolkate twice after converting 22% of his break points (2/9).
His best result of the current year was winning the title in Adelaide where he defeated Sebastian Korda in the final 6-3 3-6 6-1 and in Montpellier where he defeated Aleksandar Kovacevic in the final 6-2 6-7(7) 7-6(2).
Auger-Aliassime has a composed 17-6 win-loss record in 2025, 13-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Miami
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2019. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Musetti | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 34 | 20 |
| Pts | 113-112 | 69-52 |
| Total Points | 225 | 121 |
| Winners | 53 | 32 |
| %Winners | 47% | 46% |
Both Musetti and Auger-Aliassime played 1 match. At the moment, Lorenzo Musetti surrendered 1 set while Felix Auger-Aliassime hasn’t lost a set so far. Musetti has played 1 set more than Auger-Aliassime (3 vs 2). Therefore, Musetti played 14 games more than Auger-Aliassime. Musetti scored 53 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, Felix struck 32 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Musetti | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 6 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 6 |
| 1st in | 79/120 | 37/50 |
| %1st in | 66% | 74% |
| 1st pts | 53/79 | 32/37 |
| %1st pts | 67% | 86% |
| 2nd pts | 25/41 | 9/13 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 69% |
Musetti made 4 aces . Auger-Aliassime bagged 6 aces . Musetti won 67% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Auger-Aliassime won 86% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 69% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Musetti | Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 2 | 2 |
| Converted | 2/6 | 2/9 |
| % Converted | 33% | 22% |
| Conceded | 5 | 1 |
| Saved | 3 | 1 |
| % Saved | 60% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 |
The Italian broke his opponent twice with a 33% conversion rate. Musetti conceded his serve twice and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded. Auger-Aliassime broke his opponent twice with a 22% conversion rate. Auger-Aliassime was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 1 break points.
| Musetti | |||
| R2 Halys |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 7-64 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 34 | 34 | |
| pts | 113-112 | 113-112 | |
| Total points | 225 | 225 | |
| Winners | 53 | 53 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 47% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 79/120 | 79/120 | |
| % 1st in | 66% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 53/79 | 53/79 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 67% | |
| 2nd pts | 25/41 | 25/41 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 2/6 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 33% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | |
| Auger-Aliassime | |||
| R2 Schoolkate |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | |
| pts | 69-52 | 69-52 | |
| Total points | 121 | 121 | |
| Winners | 32 | 32 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 6 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 37/50 | 37/50 | |
| % 1st in | 74% | 74% | |
| 1st pts | 32/37 | 32/37 | |
| % 1st pts | 86% | 86% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/13 | 9/13 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | 69% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/9 | 2/9 | |
| Converted % | 22% | 22% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 1 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWWLWWL
LWLLWWWWLW Tennis Scores in Miami
- Tomas MachacMachac – Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi (6-2 1-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Jordan ThompsonThompson – Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardMpetshi Perricard (7-64 7-61) – See score progression
- Chak Lam Coleman WongLam Coleman Wong – Ben SheltonShelton (7-63 2-6 7-65) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Adam WaltonWalton – Luciano DarderiDarderi (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (7-62 6-3) – See score progression
- Casper RuudRuud – Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic (3-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- David GoffinGoffin – Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz (5-7 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Nick KyrgiosKyrgios (7-63 6-0) – See score progression
- Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Eliot SpizzirriSpizzirri (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Federico CinaCina (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
- Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Rinky HijikataHijikata (6-0 7-61) – See score progression
- Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Chun Hsin TsengHsin Tseng (4-6 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Quentin HalysHalys (3-6 7-64 7-5) – See score progression
- Gael MonfilsMonfils – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (6-1 3-6 7-68) – See score progression
- Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Corentin MoutetMoutet (5-7 6-3 7-5) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (6-4 4-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (6-73 7-5 6-3) – See score progression
- Tommy PaulPaul – Alexander BublikBublik (5-7 7-5 6-4) – See score progression
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Alexandre MullerMuller (6-1 6-2) – See score progression
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
- Jordan ThompsonThompson – Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardMpetshi Perricard (7-6(4) 7-6(1)) – See score progression
- Tomas MachacMachac – Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi (6-2 1-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (7-6(2) 6-3) – See score progression
- Adam WaltonWalton – Luciano DarderiDarderi (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Chak Lam Coleman WongLam Coleman Wong – Ben SheltonShelton (7-6(3) 2-6 7-6(5)) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Karen KhachanovKhachanov (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alexander ZverevZverev – Jordan ThompsonThompson (2-2) – H2H and prediction
- Matteo BerrettiniBerrettini – Hugo GastonGaston (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Gael MonfilsMonfils (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Casper RuudRuud – Alejandro TabiloTabilo (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Roman SafiullinSafiullin (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Zizou BergsBergs – Andrey RublevRublev (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian KordaKorda – Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Adam WaltonWalton – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – Tommy PaulPaul (4-2) – H2H and prediction
- Thiago Agustin TiranteAgustin Tirante – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – David GoffinGoffin (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (3-3) – H2H and prediction
- Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Reilly OpelkaOpelka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
