Naomi Osaka and Hailey Baptiste will face off in the 3^rd round of the Miami Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 1:30 pm on BUTCH BUCHHOLZ. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Naomi Osaka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Naomi Osaka is the pick to win this match.
Naomi Osaka -> 1.26
Hailey Baptiste -> 3.85

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Prediction and head to head Naomi Osaka vs. Hailey Baptiste

This will be the 2^nd time that Naomi Osaka and Hailey Baptiste fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Osaka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Osaka won 6-7(2) 6-1 6-2 in the quarter in Auckland back in January 2025.

Highlights Naomi Osaka vs Hailey Baptiste – Auckland 03-January-2025

Naomi Osaka

Ranked no. 61, Osaka got to the 3^rd round after defeating Yuliia Starodubtseva 3-6 6-4 6-3 and Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, Naomi had a good straight sets win against Samsonova (6-2 6-4). During the match, Osaka scored 64 points vs Samsonova’s 40. The Japanese was pretty aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Regarding the service games, Osaka recorded 6 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Naomi Osaka was pretty efficient on serve to win 79% (23/29) of her 1st serve and 75% (12/16) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Osaka broke Samsonova 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Osaka has surrendered 1 set in this competition to conquer 55% of the points she played.

Osaka has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (222-115). 8-3 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Osaka has an aggregate 165-72 record in the last years on hard.

Osaka’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Auckland.

Osaka has a compiled 8-3 win-loss record in 2025, 8-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Miami

Hailey Baptiste

Ranked no. 98, the American reached the 3^rd round after beating Olga Danilovic 6-3 6-7(5) 6-1 and Daria Kasatkina 3-6 6-4 7-5.

In the 2^nd round against Kasatkina, Hailey recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-4 7-5).During the match Baptiste scored less points (1) than Kasatkina. In fact, the world no. 61 won 100 points vs Kasatkina’s. That means that Baptiste was more focused during the important points. Hailey was quite aggressive to blast 41 winners.

About the serving games, Baptiste struck 11 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Hailey Baptiste lost the serve 4 times and she saved 12 break points. Furthermore, Baptiste put 54% of her first serves in, winning 68% (41/60) of the points behind her 1st serve and 49% (25/51) on the 2nd serve. Hailey broke Kasatkina 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Baptiste has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.

Baptiste has an overall 8-6 win-loss record in 2025, 7-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Miami

Previously, her best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Osaka	Baptiste
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	5	6
Tot Games	46	60
Pts	160-129	206-182
Total Points	289	388
Winners	61	83
%Winners	38%	40%

Both Osaka and Baptiste played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Naomi Osaka lost 1 set, while Hailey Baptiste conceded 2 sets. Osaka has played 1 set(s) less than Baptiste (5 vs 6). Therefore, Osaka played 14 games less than Baptiste. Naomi scored 61 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Hailey blasted 83 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Osaka	Baptiste
Aces	16	14
Avg per match	8	7
1st in	80/142	109/201
%1st in	56%	54%
1st pts	61/80	83/109
%1st pts	76%	76%
2nd pts	33/62	48/92
%2nd pts	53%	52%

Osaka fired 16 aces (8 per match). Baptiste struck 14 aces (7 per match). Osaka won 76% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Baptiste won 76% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Osaka	Baptiste
Won	8	8
Converted	8/16	8/16
% Converted	50%	50%
Conceded	13	19
Saved	9	14
% Saved	69%	74%
Times Broken	4	5

The Japanese broke her opponents 8 times with a 50% conversion rate. Osaka surrendered her serve 4 times and she saved 69% of the break points that she conceded. Hailey broke her opponents 8 times with a 50% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 74% of the break points that she conceded.

Osaka
	R1 Starodubtseva	R2 Samsonova	Total
Score	3-6 6-4 6-3	6-2 6-4
Tot Set	3	2	5
Tot Games	28	18	46
pts	96-89	64-40	160-129
Total points	185	104	289
Winners	38	23	61
%Winners	40%	36%	38%
SERVE
Aces	10	6	16
Double Faults	4	1	5
1st in	51/97	29/45	80/142
% 1st in	53%	64%	56%
1st pts	38/51	23/29	61/80
% 1st pts	75%	79%	76%
2nd pts	21/46	12/16	33/62
% 2nd pts	46%	75%	53%
Breaks
Won	4	4	8
Converted	4/8	4/8	8/16
Converted %	50%	50%	50%
Conceded	10	3	13
Saved	7/10	2/3	9
Saved %	70%	67%	69%
Times Broken	3	1	4

Baptiste
	R1 Danilovic	R2 Kasatkina	Total
Score	6-3 6-75 6-1	3-6 6-4 7-5
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	29	31	60
pts	106-81	100-101	206-182
Total points	187	201	388
Winners	42	41	83
%Winners	40%	41%	40%
SERVE
Aces	3	11	14
Double Faults	0	4	4
1st in	49/90	60/111	109/201
% 1st in	54%	54%	54%
1st pts	42/49	41/60	83/109
% 1st pts	86%	68%	76%
2nd pts	23/41	25/51	48/92
% 2nd pts	56%	49%	52%
Breaks
Won	4	4	8
Converted	4/7	4/9	8/16
Converted %	57%	44%	50%
Conceded	3	16	19
Saved	2/3	12/16	14
Saved %	67%	75%	71%
Times Broken	1	4	5

Tennis Scores in Miami

• Elise MertensMertens – Peyton StearnsStearns (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Alexandra EalaEala – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (7-6² 7-5) – See score progression
• Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Moyuka UchijimaUchijima (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
• Anna BlinkovaBlinkova – Diana ShnaiderShnaider (6-4 7-6⁰) – See score progression
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Caroline GarciaGarcia (6-2 7-5) – See score progression
• Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins – Sorana CirsteaCirstea (6-4 7-6³) – See score progression
• Ashlyn KruegerKrueger – Elena RybakinaRybakina (6-4 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse – Magdalena FrechFrech (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Rebecca SramkovaSramkova (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Hailey BaptisteBaptiste – Daria KasatkinaKasatkina (3-6 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Lauren DavisDavis (6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – Alycia ParksParks (7-6¹ 6-3) – See score progression
• Ons JabeurJabeur – Katerina SiniakovaSiniakova (6-4 7-6⁷) – See score progression
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Liudmila SamsonovaSamsonova (6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Taylor TownsendTownsend – Yulia PutintsevaPutintseva (7-6² 1-6 6-1) – See score progression
• Maria SakkariSakkari – Lucia BronzettiBronzetti (6-3 5-7 6-4) – See score progression
• Linda FruhvirtovaFruhvirtova – Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
• Magda LinetteLinette – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (7-6⁵ 6-2) – See score progression
• Rebeka MasarovaMasarova – Donna VekicVekic (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Viktoriya TomovaTomova (6-3 6-0) – See score progression
• Cori GauffGauff – Sofia KeninKenin (6-0 6-0) – See score progression
• Skander MansouriMansouri – Aaron SchmidSchmid (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Aziz DougazDougaz – Yuichiro InuiInui (7-5 6-1) – See score progression
• Mateo Nicolas MartinezNicolas Martinez – Gabriele Maria NoceMaria Noce (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
• Luca GiacominiGiacomini – Jake HerseyHersey (6-0 6-0) – See score progression
• Michal DembekDembek – Maxime HamouHamou (7-6⁴ 6-3) – See score progression
• Mariano KestelboimKestelboim – Hugo PonticoPontico (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Imanol Lopez MorilloLopez Morillo – Mateus Alves (2001)Alves (2001) (6-4 6-7² 6-3) – See score progression
• Anna BlinkovaBlinkova – Diana ShnaiderShnaider (6-4 7-6(0)) – See score progression
• Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Moyuka UchijimaUchijima (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
• Alexandra EalaEala – Jelena OstapenkoOstapenko (7-6(2) 7-5) – See score progression
• Paula Badosa GibertBadosa Gibert – Victoria MbokoMboko (7-5 1-6 7-6(3)) – See score progression
• Elise MertensMertens – Peyton StearnsStearns (6-4 6-1) – See score progression
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Caroline GarciaGarcia (6-2 7-5) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Emma NavarroNavarro – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Mccartney KesslerKessler – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Mayar SherifSherif (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Kimberly BirrellBirrell – Marta KostyukKostyuk (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Bernarda PeraPera – Jessica PegulaPegula (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Madison KeysKeys – Elina AvanesyanAvanesyan (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Clara TausonTauson – Julia GrabherGrabher (3-0) – H2H and prediction
• Karolina MuchovaMuchova – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Belinda BencicBencic – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (2-2) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elena Gabriela RuseGabriela Ruse (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Rebeka MasarovaMasarova – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Taylor TownsendTownsend (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez – (1-2) – H2H and prediction
• Cori GauffGauff – Maria SakkariSakkari (4-5) – H2H and prediction
• Magda LinetteLinette – (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Hailey BaptisteBaptiste – Naomi OsakaOsaka (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Ons JabeurJabeur – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Elise MertensMertens – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-1) – H2H and prediction