Karl Poling and Ivan Marrero Curbelo will play each other in the qualifications of the Merida Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 1:30 pm on CANCHA YUCATAN. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Ivan Marrero Curbelo who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Ivan Marrero Curbelo is the pick to win this match.
Ivan Marrero Curbelo -> 1.74
Karl Poling -> 2

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Karl Poling vs. Ivan Marrero Curbelo

There is no head to head record between Karl Poling and Ivan Marrero Curbelo since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.

Karl Poling

Ranked no. 629, Poling reached the qualifications after defeating Rafael De Alba 6-4 6-3.

In the qualifications, Karl had a good straight sets win against De Alba (6-4 6-3). During the match, Poling scored 68 points vs De Alba’s 52. Karl was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Regarding the service games, Poling blasted 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Karl Poling lost the serve twice and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Poling put 61% of his first serves in, winning 73% (27/37) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. The American broke De Alba 4 times after converting 33% of his break points (4/12).

Poling has a winning record in the last 5 years having won 59% of his matches (47-33). 1-0 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Poling has a compiled3-2 record in the last 5 years on clay.

Poling’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in M15 Monastir.

The American has an overall 10-7 win-loss record in 2025, 1-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Merida Challenger

The American has never competed in this tournament before.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Ranked no. 751, the Spaniard reached the qualifications after beating Mauricio Schtulmann Gasca 6-0 6-2.

In the qualifications, Ivan had a good straight sets win against Schtulmann Gasca (6-0 6-2). During the match Marrero scored 51 points vs Schtulmann Gasca’s 22. The Spaniard was extremely aggressive to blast 20 winners.

Talking about serving, Marrero was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Ivan Marrero Curbelo lost the serve once. Furthermore, Marrero put 81% of his first serves in, winning 69% (20/29) of the points behind his 1st serve and 57% (4/7) on the 2nd serve. Ivan broke Schtulmann Gasca 6 times after converting 75% of his break points (6/8).

The Spaniard’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in M15 Huamantla.

The Spaniard has an aggregate 5-6 win-loss record in 2025, 1-0 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Poling	Marrero
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	19	14
Pts	68-52	51-22
Total Points	120	73
Winners	27	20
%Winners	40%	39%

Both Poling and Marrero played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Poling and Marrero have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Poling played 5 games more than Marrero. The American scored 27 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, The Spaniard fired 20 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Poling	Marrero
Aces	3	0
Avg per match	3	0
1st in	37/61	29/36
%1st in	61%	81%
1st pts	27/37	20/29
%1st pts	73%	69%
2nd pts	12/24	4/7
%2nd pts	50%	57%

Poling managed to score 3 aces . Marrero didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Poling won 73% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Marrero won 69% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Poling	Marrero
Won	4	6
Converted	4/12	6/8
% Converted	33%	75%
Conceded	3	1
Saved	1	0
% Saved	33%	0%
Times Broken	2	1

The American broke his opponent 4 times with a 33% conversion rate. Poling lost his serve twice and he saved 33% of the break points that he conceded. Ivan broke his opponent 6 times with a 75% conversion rate. Marrero conceded his serve once and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded.

Poling
	Q1 De	Total
Score	6-4 6-3
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	19	19
pts	68-52	68-52
Total points	120	120
Winners	27	27
%Winners	40%	40%
SERVE
Aces	3	3
Double Faults	3	3
1st in	37/61	37/61
% 1st in	61%	61%
1st pts	27/37	27/37
% 1st pts	73%	73%
2nd pts	12/24	12/24
% 2nd pts	50%	50%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/12	4/12
Converted %	33%	33%
Conceded	3	3
Saved	1/3	1
Saved %	33%	33%
Times Broken	2	2

Marrero
	Q1 Schtulmann Gasca	Total
Score	6-0 6-2
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	14	14
pts	51-22	51-22
Total points	73	73
Winners	20	20
%Winners	39%	39%
SERVE
Aces	0	0
Double Faults	1	1
1st in	29/36	29/36
% 1st in	81%	81%
1st pts	20/29	20/29
% 1st pts	69%	69%
2nd pts	4/7	4/7
% 2nd pts	57%	57%
Breaks
Won	6	6
Converted	6/8	6/8
Converted %	75%	75%
Conceded	1	1
Saved	0/1	0
Saved %	0%	0%
Times Broken	1	1

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Renzo OlivoOlivo – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Hugo DellienDellien – Maxime JanvierJanvier (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Elmar EjupovicEjupovic – Bernard TomicTomic (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Dmitry PopkoPopko – Andres AndradeAndrade (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Evan ZhuZhu – Joshua SheehySheehy (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Karl PolingPoling – Ivan Marrero CurbeloMarrero Curbelo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ivan DenisovDenisov – Alan Fernando Rubio FierrosFernando Rubio Fierros (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Trey HilderbrandHilderbrand – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Garrett JohnsJohns – Sebastian GimaGima (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Tristan MccormickMccormick – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Maxwell MckennonMckennon – Dan MartinMartin (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Tyler ZinkZink – Vladyslav OrlovOrlov (0-0) – H2H and prediction