Holger Rune and Jack Draper will play each other in the final of the BNP Paribas Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 2:00 pm on Stadium 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jack Draper who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Jack Draper is the pick to win this match.
Jack Draper -> 1.64
Holger Rune -> 2.31
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Prediction and head to head Holger Rune vs. Jack Draper
This will be the 2nd time that Holger Rune and Jack Draper play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Rune (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Rune won 6-4 6-2 in the quarter in Cincinnati back in 2024.
Highlights Holger Rune vs Jack Draper – Cincinnati 17-August-2024
Holger Rune
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-11 | 9-5 | 6-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-24 | 21-12 | 11-6 | 10-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-24 | 10-10 | 16-4 | 11-8 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-27 | 8-9 | 21-11 | 21-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 73-29 | 11-5 | 41-17 | 21-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 13, Rune got to the final after defeating Unknown Player bye, Corentin Moutet 6-2 6-4, Ugo Humbert 5-7 6-4 7-5, Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4 6-4, Tallon Griekspoor 5-7 6-0 6-3 and Daniil Medvedev 7-5 6-4.
In the semifinal, The Dane had a good straight sets win against Medvedev (7-5 6-4). During the match, Rune scored 72 points vs Medvedev’s 58. Rune was pretty aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Talking about the service games, Rune scored just 1 ace during the match and he committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Holger Rune was pretty efficient on serve to win 72% (34/47) of his 1st serve and 61% (14/23) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Holger broke Medvedev 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Rune has conceded 2 set in this event to win 55% of the points he played.
Rune has a solid win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 66% of his matches (262-136). 9-3 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Rune has an aggregate60-45 match record in the last 8 years on hard.
Rune’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in Indian Wells.
The Dane has an overall 11-6 win-loss record in 2025, 9-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Jack Draper
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22-6 | 13-3 | 9-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-22 | 19-10 | 5-7 | 7-3 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-15 | 15-8 | 3-3 | 16-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 46-19 | 12-6 | 2-2 | 26-7 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 18-16 | 6-6 | 7-5 | 3-2 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 14, Jack reached the final after defeating Unknown Player bye, Joao Fonseca 6-4 6-0, Jenson Brooksby 7-5 6-4, Taylor Fritz 7-5 6-4, Ben Shelton 6-4 7-5 and Carlos Alcaraz 6-1 0-6 6-4.
In the semifinal, The Brit defeated Alcaraz (6-1 0-6 6-4). During the match Draper scored 72 points vs Alcaraz’s 67. The Brit was extremely aggressive to blast 30 winners.
Talking about serving, Draper struck 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Jack Draper lost the serve 4 times and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Draper put 68% of his first serves in, winning 64% (30/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (11/22) on the 2nd serve. Draper broke Alcaraz 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Jack has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
The Brit’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Doha.
Draper has an overall 12-2 win-loss record in 2025, 12-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rune | Draper |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 121 | 105 |
| Pts | 412-333 | 350-289 |
| Total Points | 745 | 639 |
| Winners | 169 | 147 |
| %Winners | 41% | 42% |
Both Rune and Draper played 5 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Holger Rune surrendered 2 sets, while Jack Draper lost 1 set. Rune has played 1 set more than Draper (12 vs 11). Therefore, Rune played 16 games more than Draper. The Dane scored 169 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Draper managed to score 147 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rune | Draper |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 18 | 25 |
| Avg per match | 3.6 | 5 |
| 1st in | 229/362 | 194/310 |
| %1st in | 63% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 169/229 | 147/194 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 73/133 | 63/116 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 54% |
Rune bagged 18 aces (3.6 per match). Draper bagged 25 aces (5 per match). Rune won 74% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Draper won 76% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rune | Draper |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 21 | 18 |
| Converted | 21/45 | 18/27 |
| % Converted | 47% | 67% |
| Conceded | 27 | 20 |
| Saved | 17 | 12 |
| % Saved | 63% | 60% |
| Times Broken | 10 | 8 |
The Dane broke his opponents 21 times with a 47% conversion rate. Holger lost his serve 10 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. Jack broke his opponents 18 times with a 67% conversion rate. The Brit conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.
| Rune | |||||||
| R2 Moutet |
R3 Humbert |
R4 Tsitsipas |
1/4 Griekspoor |
1/2 Medvedev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 5-7 6-4 7-5 | 6-4 6-4 | 5-7 6-0 6-3 | 7-5 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 34 | 20 | 27 | 22 | 121 | |
| pts | 65-48 | 111-103 | 67-52 | 97-72 | 72-58 | 412-333 | |
| Total points | 113 | 214 | 119 | 169 | 130 | 745 | |
| Winners | 24 | 42 | 30 | 39 | 34 | 169 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 38% | 45% | 40% | 47% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 2 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 34/50 | 56/110 | 41/58 | 51/74 | 47/70 | 229/362 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 51% | 71% | 69% | 67% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 24/34 | 42/56 | 30/41 | 39/51 | 34/47 | 169/229 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 75% | 73% | 76% | 72% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/16 | 28/54 | 11/17 | 11/23 | 14/23 | 73/133 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 52% | 65% | 48% | 61% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 21 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 4/10 | 3/5 | 6/15 | 3/4 | 21/45 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 40% | 60% | 40% | 75% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 27 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 7/10 | 5/6 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 70% | 83% | 25% | 50% | 58% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | |
| Draper | |||||||
| R2 Fonseca |
R3 Brooksby |
R4 Fritz |
1/4 Shelton |
1/2 Alcaraz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-0 | 7-5 6-4 | 7-5 6-4 | 6-4 7-5 | 6-1 0-6 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 105 | |
| pts | 61-45 | 78-59 | 61-53 | 78-65 | 72-67 | 350-289 | |
| Total points | 106 | 137 | 114 | 143 | 139 | 639 | |
| Winners | 25 | 27 | 32 | 33 | 30 | 147 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 35% | 52% | 42% | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 6 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 25 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 33/60 | 30/56 | 35/57 | 49/68 | 47/69 | 194/310 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 54% | 61% | 72% | 68% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 25/33 | 27/30 | 32/35 | 33/49 | 30/47 | 147/194 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 90% | 91% | 67% | 64% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/27 | 16/26 | 10/22 | 14/19 | 11/22 | 63/116 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 62% | 45% | 74% | 50% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 3/5 | 3/4 | 3/5 | 4/5 | 18/27 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 60% | 75% | 60% | 80% | 67% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 20 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 5/9 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 56% | 38% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
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