Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva will square off in the final of the BNP Paribas Open for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 11:00 am on Stadium 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.47
Mirra Andreeva -> 2.76

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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Mirra Andreeva

This will be the 6^th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva square off. The head to head is 4-1 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Sabalenka won 6-1 6-2 in the 4^th round in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.

Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva – Australian Open 19-January-2025

Aryna Sabalenka

Currently world no. 1 Aryna reached the final after beating Unknown Player bye, Mccartney Kessler 7-6(4) 6-3, Lucia Bronzetti 6-1 6-2, Sonay Kartal 6-1 6-2, Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 6-3 and Madison Keys 6-0 6-1.

In the semifinal, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Keys (6-0 6-1). During the match, Sabalenka scored 53 points vs Keys’s 27. The Belarussian was extremely aggressive to blast 20 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sabalenka couldn’t to score even 1 ace during the encounter and she committed only 1 double fault. Aryna Sabalenka was extremely efficient on serve to win 71% (20/28) of her 1st serve and 75% (9/12) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Sabalenka broke Keys 5 times after converting 83% of her break points (5/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Aryna hasn’t conceded yet a set in this tournament to win 60% of the points she played.

Sabalenka has a superlative record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (391-171). 17-3 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Sabalenka has a compiled 244-95 match record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Brisbane where she overcame Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2.

The Belarussian has a composed 17-3 win-loss record in 2025, 17-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Mirra Andreeva

Ranked no. 11, Andreeva reached the final after beating Unknown Player bye

, Varvara Gracheva 7-5 6-4, Clara Tauson 6-3 6-0, Elena Rybakina 6-1 6-2, Elina Svitolina 7-5 6-3 and Iga Swiatek 7-6(1) 1-6 6-3.

In the semifinal, Mirra defeated Swiatek (7-6¹ 1-6 6-3).During the match Andreeva scored less points (8) than Swiatek. In fact, the world no. 1 won 83 points vs Swiatek’s. That means that Andreeva was more focused during the important points. Andreeva was extremely aggressive to blast 32 winners.

About the serving games, Andreeva made 5 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Mirra Andreeva lost the serve 5 times and she saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Andreeva put 54% of her first serves in, winning 65% (32/49) of the points behind her 1st serve and 44% (18/41) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Swiatek 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Mirra has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Dubai where she overcame Clara Tauson in the final 7-6(1) 6-1.

The Russian has a compiled 18-3 win-loss record in 2025, 18-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Indian Wells

Previously, her best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2024. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sabalenka	Andreeva
Match played	5	5
Tot Set	10	11
Tot Games	82	102
Pts	314-211	342-277
Total Points	525	619
Winners	119	123
%Winners	38%	36%

Both Sabalenka and Andreeva played 5 matches. At the moment, Mirra Andreeva dropped 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Andreeva (10 vs 11). Therefore, Sabalenka played 20 games less than Andreeva. Sabalenka scored 119 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Andreeva struck 123 winners (36%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sabalenka	Andreeva
Aces	11	12
Avg per match	2.2	2.4
1st in	157/239	174/289
%1st in	66%	60%
1st pts	119/157	123/174
%1st pts	76%	71%
2nd pts	46/82	61/115
%2nd pts	56%	53%

Sabalenka struck 11 aces (2.2 per match). Andreeva scored 12 aces (2.4 per match). Sabalenka won 76% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 56% of the points. On the other side, Andreeva won 71% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sabalenka	Andreeva
Won	22	25
Converted	22/37	25/47
% Converted	59%	53%
Conceded	8	19
Saved	4	8
% Saved	50%	42%
Times Broken	4	11

The Belarussian broke her opponents 22 times with a 59% conversion rate. The Belarussian dropped her serve 4 times and she saved 50% of the break points that she conceded. The Russian broke her opponents 25 times with a 53% conversion rate. Mirra conceded her serve 11 times and she saved 42% of the break points that she conceded.

Sabalenka
	R2 Kessler	R3 Bronzetti	R4 Kartal	1/4 Samsonova	1/2 Keys	Total
Score	7-64 6-3	6-1 6-2	6-1 6-2	6-2 6-3	6-0 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	2	10
Tot Games	22	15	15	17	13	82
pts	73-59	64-41	60-39	64-45	53-27	314-211
Total points	132	105	99	109	80	525
Winners	31	21	23	24	20	119
%Winners	42%	33%	38%	38%	38%	38%
SERVE
Aces	6	2	2	1	0	11
Double Faults	2	2	1	0	1	6
1st in	36/57	28/47	31/46	34/49	28/40	157/239
% 1st in	63%	60%	67%	69%	70%	66%
1st pts	31/36	21/28	23/31	24/34	20/28	119/157
% 1st pts	86%	75%	74%	71%	71%	76%
2nd pts	13/21	10/19	7/15	7/15	9/12	46/82
% 2nd pts	62%	53%	47%	47%	75%	56%
Breaks
Won	2	5	5	5	5	22
Converted	2/3	5/12	5/8	5/8	5/6	22/37
Converted %	67%	42%	63%	63%	83%	59%
Conceded	0	3	2	2	1	8
Saved	0/0	2/3	1/2	0/2	1/1	4
Saved %	–	67%	50%	0%	100%	43%
Times Broken	0	1	1	2	0	4

Andreeva
	R2 Gracheva	R3 Tauson	R4 Rybakina	1/4 Svitolina	1/2 Swiatek	Total
Score	7-5 6-4	6-3 6-0	6-1 6-2	7-5 6-3	7-61 1-6 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	3	11
Tot Games	22	15	15	21	29	102
pts	76-64	54-32	58-37	71-53	83-91	342-277
Total points	140	86	95	124	174	619
Winners	25	18	20	28	32	123
%Winners	33%	33%	34%	39%	39%	36%
SERVE
Aces	2	3	2	0	5	12
Double Faults	2	1	1	2	4	10
1st in	42/69	24/38	25/40	34/52	49/90	174/289
% 1st in	61%	63%	63%	65%	54%	60%
1st pts	25/42	18/24	20/25	28/34	32/49	123/174
% 1st pts	60%	75%	80%	82%	65%	71%
2nd pts	15/27	10/14	6/15	12/18	18/41	61/115
% 2nd pts	56%	71%	40%	67%	44%	53%
Breaks
Won	6	5	6	4	4	25
Converted	6/10	5/9	6/12	4/9	4/7	25/47
Converted %	60%	56%	50%	44%	57%	53%
Conceded	6	0	1	6	6	19
Saved	2/6	0/0	0/1	5/6	1/6	8
Saved %	33%	–	0%	83%	17%	27%
Times Broken	4	0	1	1	5	11

Tennis Scores in Indian Wells

• Asia Muhammad/Demi SchuursMuhammad/Demi Schuurs – Tereza Mihalikova/Olivia NichollsMihalikova/Olivia Nicholls (6-2 7-6⁴) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Albert Alcaraz IvorraAlcaraz Ivorra – Giovanni FonioFonio (3-6 6-4 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – (4-1) – H2H and prediction