Joao Fonseca and Alexander Bublik will square off in the final of the Phoenix Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 2:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Joao Fonseca who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Joao Fonseca is the pick to win this match.
Joao Fonseca -> 1.26
Alexander Bublik -> 3.55
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Prediction and head to head Joao Fonseca vs. Alexander Bublik
There is no head to head record between Joao Fonseca and Alexander Bublik since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Joao Fonseca
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25-9 | 17-3 | 8-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 37-23 | 8-3 | 14-11 | 13-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 11-6 | 1-1 | 10-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 80, Joao reached the final after defeating Pavel Kotov 6-2 6-4, Jan-Lennard Struff 6-1 4-6 6-3, Hugo Gaston 6-4 6-4 and Kei Nishikori 6-3 6-3.
In the semifinal, Fonseca had a good straight sets win against Nishikori (6-3 6-3). During the match, Fonseca scored 62 points vs Nishikori’s 44. Fonseca was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Fonseca struck 7 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Joao Fonseca was quite efficient on serve to win 76% (25/33) of his 1st serve and 71% (12/17) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Fonseca broke Nishikori 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Joao has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
Fonseca has a solid match record in the last 4 years having won 66% of his matches (72-37). 14-2 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Fonseca has an aggregate23-6 win-loss record in the last 4 years on hard.
His best result of the current season was winning the title the Canberra Challenger where he overcame Ethan Quinn in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Buenos Aires where he beat Francisco Cerundolo in the final 6-4 7-6(1).
Joao has a compiled 19-4 win-loss record in 2025, 14-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Phoenix Challenger
The Brazilian has never competed in this tournament before.
Alexander Bublik
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22-16 | 5-7 | 15-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-25 | 10-11 | 5-6 | 6-4 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 28-30 | 3-12 | 7-9 | 9-7 | 9-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-27 | 5-8 | 2-6 | 17-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 14-12 | 4-6 | 10-8 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 82, Alexander got to the final after beating Aleksandar Vukic 6-3 3-6 6-3, Rinky Hijikata 6-2 5-7 6-3, Corentin Moutet 2-6 7-6(4) 7-5 and Nuno Borges 6-3 6-4.
In the semifinal, The Kazakhstani had a good straight sets win against Borges (6-3 6-4). During the match Bublik scored 61 points vs Borges’s 50. The Kazakhstani was very aggressive to blast 35 winners.
Talking about serving, Bublik scored 16 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Alexander Bublik lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Bublik put 72% of his first serves in, winning 81% (35/43) of the points behind his 1st serve and 41% (7/17) on the 2nd serve. Alexander broke Borges 3 times after converting 50% of his break points (3/6).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Bublik has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
Bublik’s best result of the year was reaching the semifinal in the Phoenix Challenger.
Bublik has an overall 6-8 win-loss record in 2025, 4-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Fonseca | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 82 | 108 |
| Pts | 291-226 | 347-311 |
| Total Points | 517 | 658 |
| Winners | 125 | 163 |
| %Winners | 43% | 47% |
Both Fonseca and Bublik played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Joao Fonseca dropped 1 set, while Alexander Bublik surrendered 3 sets. Fonseca has played 2 set(s) less than Bublik (9 vs 11). Therefore, Fonseca played 26 games less than Bublik. Joao scored 125 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani recorded 163 winners (47%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Fonseca | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 15 | 62 |
| Avg per match | 3.8 | 15.5 |
| 1st in | 163/243 | 209/321 |
| %1st in | 67% | 65% |
| 1st pts | 125/163 | 163/209 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 78% |
| 2nd pts | 44/80 | 50/112 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 45% |
Fonseca bagged 15 aces (3.8 per match). Bublik blasted 62 aces (15.5 per match). Fonseca won 77% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Bublik won 78% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 45% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Fonseca | Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 14 |
| Converted | 14/35 | 14/25 |
| % Converted | 40% | 56% |
| Conceded | 10 | 20 |
| Saved | 7 | 10 |
| % Saved | 70% | 50% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 10 |
Joao broke his opponents 14 times with a 40% conversion rate. The Brazilian dropped his serve 3 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded. The Kazakhstani broke his opponents 14 times with a 56% conversion rate. Bublik conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.
| Fonseca | ||||||
| R1 Kotov |
R2 Struff |
1/4 Gaston |
1/2 Nishikori |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 6-1 4-6 6-3 | 6-4 6-4 | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 26 | 20 | 18 | 82 | |
| pts | 70-52 | 94-80 | 65-50 | 62-44 | 291-226 | |
| Total points | 122 | 174 | 115 | 106 | 517 | |
| Winners | 27 | 43 | 30 | 25 | 125 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 46% | 46% | 40% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 33/49 | 59/86 | 38/58 | 33/50 | 163/243 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 69% | 66% | 66% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 27/33 | 43/59 | 30/38 | 25/33 | 125/163 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 73% | 79% | 76% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/16 | 12/27 | 10/20 | 12/17 | 44/80 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 44% | 50% | 71% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | |
| Converted | 3/11 | 5/15 | 3/4 | 3/5 | 14/35 | |
| Converted % | 27% | 33% | 75% | 60% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 5/7 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 7 | |
| Saved % | – | 71% | 67% | – | 35% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Bublik | ||||||
| R1 Vukic |
R2 Hijikata |
1/4 Moutet |
1/2 Borges |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 3-6 6-3 | 6-2 5-7 6-3 | 2-6 7-64 7-5 | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 27 | 29 | 33 | 19 | 108 | |
| pts | 89-76 | 94-83 | 103-102 | 61-50 | 347-311 | |
| Total points | 165 | 177 | 205 | 111 | 658 | |
| Winners | 48 | 41 | 39 | 35 | 163 | |
| %Winners | 54% | 44% | 38% | 57% | 47% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 19 | 19 | 8 | 16 | 62 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 16 | |
| 1st in | 57/80 | 51/88 | 58/93 | 43/60 | 209/321 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 58% | 62% | 72% | 65% | |
| 1st pts | 48/57 | 41/51 | 39/58 | 35/43 | 163/209 | |
| % 1st pts | 84% | 80% | 67% | 81% | 78% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/23 | 15/37 | 18/35 | 7/17 | 50/112 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 41% | 51% | 41% | 45% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 14 | |
| Converted | 2/6 | 5/7 | 4/6 | 3/6 | 14/25 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 71% | 67% | 50% | 56% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 20 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 4/7 | 3/8 | 2/3 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 57% | 38% | 67% | 53% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 10 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Alexander BublikBublik – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
