Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper will square off in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 4:00 pm on Stadium 1. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.177
Jack Draper -> 4.9
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jack Draper
This will be the 5th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Jack Draper square off. The head to head is 3-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.
The last time that they squared off, Alcaraz won 7-5 6-1 ret. in the 4th round in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Jack Draper – Australian Open 19-January-2025
Carlos Alcaraz
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24-5 | 10-4 | 9-1 | 5-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 3, Carlos reached the semifinal after defeating Unknown Player bye, Quentin Halys 6-4 6-2, Denis Shapovalov 6-2 6-4, Grigor Dimitrov 6-1 6-1 and Francisco Cerundolo 6-3 7-6(4).
In the quarter, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Cerundolo (6-3 7-64). During the match, Alcaraz scored 81 points vs Cerundolo’s 65. Alcaraz was exceptionally aggressive to blast 36 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz bagged 5 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was quite effective on serve to win 75% (36/48) of his 1st serve and 60% (15/25) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Spaniard broke Cerundolo twice after converting 67% of his break points (2/3).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carlos hasn’t lost yet a set in this tournament to conquer 57% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 79% of his matches (302-80). 10-2 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has a composed107-29 record in the last 8 years on hard.
His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2.
Carlos has a composed 15-2 win-loss record in 2025, 10-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Jack Draper
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19-5 | 13-3 | 6-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 39-22 | 19-10 | 5-7 | 7-3 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-15 | 15-8 | 3-3 | 16-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 46-19 | 12-6 | 2-2 | 26-7 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 18-16 | 6-6 | 7-5 | 3-2 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 14, Draper reached the semifinal after beating Unknown Player bye, Joao Fonseca 6-4 6-0, Jenson Brooksby 7-5 6-4, Taylor Fritz 7-5 6-4 and Ben Shelton 6-4 7-5.
In the quarter, The Brit had a good straight sets win against Shelton (6-4 7-5). During the match Draper scored 78 points vs Shelton’s 65. Jack was quite aggressive to blast 33 winners.
Talking about serving, Draper bagged 3 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Jack Draper lost the serve once. Furthermore, Draper put 72% of his first serves in, winning 67% (33/49) of the points behind his 1st serve and 74% (14/19) on the 2nd serve. Jack broke Shelton 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Brit hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
The Brit’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in Doha.
The Brit has a composed 11-2 win-loss record in 2025, 11-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the 4th round in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Draper |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 8 | 8 |
| Tot Games | 72 | 82 |
| Pts | 267-201 | 278-222 |
| Total Points | 468 | 500 |
| Winners | 110 | 117 |
| %Winners | 41% | 42% |
Both Alcaraz and Draper played 4 matches. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Draper have played the same amount of sets 8. However, Alcaraz played 10 games less than Draper. Carlos scored 110 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Jack blasted 117 winners (42%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Draper |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 20 | 21 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 5.3 |
| 1st in | 144/224 | 147/241 |
| %1st in | 64% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 110/144 | 117/147 |
| %1st pts | 76% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 49/80 | 52/94 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 55% |
Alcaraz bagged 20 aces (5 per match). Draper bagged 21 aces (5.3 per match). Alcaraz won 76% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Draper won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Draper |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 14 | 14 |
| Converted | 14/30 | 14/22 |
| % Converted | 47% | 64% |
| Conceded | 17 | 11 |
| Saved | 15 | 7 |
| % Saved | 88% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 4 |
Alcaraz broke his opponents 14 times with a 47% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve twice and he saved 88% of the break points that he conceded. The Brit broke his opponents 14 times with a 64% conversion rate. Jack conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | ||||||
| R2 Halys |
R3 Shapovalov |
R4 Dimitrov |
1/4 Cerundolo |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | 6-2 6-4 | 6-1 6-1 | 6-3 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | 14 | 22 | 72 | |
| pts | 54-43 | 67-55 | 65-38 | 81-65 | 267-201 | |
| Total points | 97 | 122 | 103 | 146 | 468 | |
| Winners | 20 | 31 | 23 | 36 | 110 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 46% | 35% | 44% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 7 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 20 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | |
| 1st in | 21/48 | 45/63 | 30/40 | 48/73 | 144/224 | |
| % 1st in | 44% | 71% | 75% | 66% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 20/21 | 31/45 | 23/30 | 36/48 | 110/144 | |
| % 1st pts | 95% | 69% | 77% | 75% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/27 | 10/18 | 7/10 | 15/25 | 49/80 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 56% | 70% | 60% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 14 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 4/8 | 5/14 | 2/3 | 14/30 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 50% | 36% | 67% | 47% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 17 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 3/4 | 3/3 | 8/9 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 75% | 100% | 89% | 91% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Draper | ||||||
| R2 Fonseca |
R3 Brooksby |
R4 Fritz |
1/4 Shelton |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-0 | 7-5 6-4 | 7-5 6-4 | 6-4 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 82 | |
| pts | 61-45 | 78-59 | 61-53 | 78-65 | 278-222 | |
| Total points | 106 | 137 | 114 | 143 | 500 | |
| Winners | 25 | 27 | 32 | 33 | 117 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 35% | 52% | 42% | 42% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 6 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | |
| 1st in | 33/60 | 30/56 | 35/57 | 49/68 | 147/241 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 54% | 61% | 72% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 25/33 | 27/30 | 32/35 | 33/49 | 117/147 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 90% | 91% | 67% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/27 | 16/26 | 10/22 | 14/19 | 52/94 | |
| % 2nd pts | 44% | 62% | 45% | 74% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | |
| Converted | 5/8 | 3/5 | 3/4 | 3/5 | 14/22 | |
| Converted % | 63% | 60% | 75% | 60% | 64% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | |
| Saved | 6/7 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 86% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 34% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWWWWW
LWWWWWLWLW Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Sebastian Korda/Jordan ThompsonKorda/Jordan Thompson – Fernando Romboli/John-Patrick SmithRomboli/John-Patrick Smith (3-6 6-3 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Christian Harrison/Evan KingHarrison/Evan King (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-3) – H2H and prediction
