Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune will play each other in the semifinal of the BNP Paribas Open for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 1:30 pm on Stadium 1. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Daniil Medvedev who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Daniil Medvedev is the pick to win this match.
Daniil Medvedev -> 1.5
Holger Rune -> 2.59
Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).
To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.
Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).
At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.
Prediction and head to head Daniil Medvedev vs. Holger Rune
This will be the 4th time that Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune play each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Medvedev (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they fought against each other, Medvedev won 7-5 6-4 in the quarter in Indian wells back in 2024.
Highlights Daniil Medvedev vs Holger Rune – Indian wells 14-March-2024
Daniil Medvedev
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23-13 | 9-5 | 6-4 | 3-2 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 46-21 | 28-9 | 11-5 | 1-5 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 66-18 | 38-8 | 10-3 | 11-4 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 45-19 | 26-8 | 3-2 | 8-6 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 63-13 | 33-5 | 5-3 | 18-3 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 6, Medvedev got to the semifinal after defeating Unknown Player bye, Bu Yunchaokete 6-2 6-2, Alex Michelsen 2-0 ret., Tommy Paul 6-4 6-0 and Arthur Fils 6-4 2-6 7-6(7).
In the quarter, Medvedev defeated Fils (6-4 2-6 7-67). During the match, Medvedev scored 99 points vs Fils’s 95. Daniil was pretty aggressive to blast 34 winners.
Talking about the service games, Medvedev recorded 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Daniil Medvedev lost the serve 4 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Medvedev put 61% of his first serves in, winning 63% (34/54) of the points behind his 1st serve and 74% (25/34) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Fils 3 times after converting 27% of his break points (3/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Medvedev has dropped 1 set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points he played.
Medvedev has a terrific match record in the last 10 years having won 71% of his matches (469-187). 9-3 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Medvedev has a composed 232-71 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
The Russian’s best result of the current year was reaching the semifinal in Marseille.
The Russian has a compiled 12-5 win-loss record in 2025, 9-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Holger Rune
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22-13 | 9-5 | 9-5 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 45-24 | 21-12 | 11-6 | 10-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 44-24 | 10-10 | 16-4 | 11-8 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-27 | 8-9 | 21-11 | 21-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 73-29 | 11-5 | 41-17 | 21-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 13, Rune reached the semifinal after beating Unknown Player bye, Corentin Moutet 6-2 6-4, Ugo Humbert 5-7 6-4 7-5, Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4 6-4 and Tallon Griekspoor 5-7 6-0 6-3.
In the quarter against Griekspoor, The Dane recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (5-7 6-0 6-3). During the match Rune scored 97 points vs Griekspoor’s 72. Holger was exceptionally aggressive to blast 39 winners.
Talking about serving, Rune struck 6 aces and he was extremely solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Holger Rune lost the serve 3 times and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Rune put 69% of his first serves in, winning 76% (39/51) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (11/23) on the 2nd serve. The Dane broke Griekspoor 6 times after converting 40% of his break points (6/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Holger has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
The Dane has an aggregate 10-6 win-loss record in 2025, 8-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Indian Wells
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 65 | 99 |
| Pts | 235-191 | 340-275 |
| Total Points | 426 | 615 |
| Winners | 78 | 135 |
| %Winners | 33% | 40% |
Both Medvedev and Rune played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Daniil Medvedev conceded 1 set, while Holger Rune surrendered 2 sets. Medvedev has played 1 set(s) less than Rune (9 vs 10). Therefore, Medvedev played 34 games less than Rune. Medvedev scored 78 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Rune scored 135 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 17 | 17 |
| Avg per match | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 1st in | 110/196 | 182/292 |
| %1st in | 56% | 62% |
| 1st pts | 78/110 | 135/182 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 74% |
| 2nd pts | 49/86 | 59/110 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 54% |
Medvedev managed to score 17 aces (4.3 per match). Rune scored 17 aces (4.3 per match). Medvedev won 71% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Rune won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Medvedev | Rune |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 18 |
| Converted | 15/34 | 18/41 |
| % Converted | 44% | 44% |
| Conceded | 15 | 25 |
| Saved | 8 | 16 |
| % Saved | 53% | 64% |
| Times Broken | 7 | 9 |
The Russian broke his opponents 15 times with a 44% conversion rate. Medvedev lost his serve 7 times and he saved 53% of the break points that he conceded. The Dane broke his opponents 18 times with a 44% conversion rate. Rune conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.
| Medvedev | ||||||
| R2 Yunchaokete |
R3 Michelsen |
R4 Paul |
1/4 Fils |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-2 | 2-0 ret. | 6-4 6-0 | 6-4 2-6 7-67 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 2 | 16 | 31 | 65 | |
| pts | 65-49 | 9-3 | 62-44 | 99-95 | 235-191 | |
| Total points | 114 | 12 | 106 | 194 | 426 | |
| Winners | 19 | 3 | 22 | 34 | 78 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 33% | 35% | 34% | 33% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 21/52 | 4/5 | 31/51 | 54/88 | 110/196 | |
| % 1st in | 40% | 80% | 61% | 61% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 19/21 | 3/4 | 22/31 | 34/54 | 78/110 | |
| % 1st pts | 90% | 75% | 71% | 63% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/31 | 1/1 | 9/20 | 25/34 | 49/86 | |
| % 2nd pts | 45% | 100% | 45% | 74% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 15 | |
| Converted | 5/14 | 1/1 | 6/8 | 3/11 | 15/34 | |
| Converted % | 36% | 100% | 75% | 27% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 15 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 0/0 | 3/5 | 4/8 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 50% | – | 60% | 50% | 40% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | |
| Rune | ||||||
| R2 Moutet |
R3 Humbert |
R4 Tsitsipas |
1/4 Griekspoor |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-4 | 5-7 6-4 7-5 | 6-4 6-4 | 5-7 6-0 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 34 | 20 | 27 | 99 | |
| pts | 65-48 | 111-103 | 67-52 | 97-72 | 340-275 | |
| Total points | 113 | 214 | 119 | 169 | 615 | |
| Winners | 24 | 42 | 30 | 39 | 135 | |
| %Winners | 37% | 38% | 45% | 40% | 40% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 2 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 10 | |
| 1st in | 34/50 | 56/110 | 41/58 | 51/74 | 182/292 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 51% | 71% | 69% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 24/34 | 42/56 | 30/41 | 39/51 | 135/182 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 75% | 73% | 76% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 9/16 | 28/54 | 11/17 | 11/23 | 59/110 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 52% | 65% | 48% | 54% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 18 | |
| Converted | 5/11 | 4/10 | 3/5 | 6/15 | 18/41 | |
| Converted % | 45% | 40% | 60% | 40% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 25 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 7/10 | 5/6 | 1/4 | 16 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 70% | 83% | 25% | 60% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWLLW
LWWLWWWLWL Tennis Scores in Indian Wells
- Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic – Christian Harrison/Evan KingHarrison/Evan King (6-3 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Sebastian Korda/Jordan ThompsonKorda/Jordan Thompson – Fernando Romboli/John-Patrick SmithRomboli/John-Patrick Smith (3-6 6-3 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (1-2) – H2H and prediction
- Jack DraperDraper – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-3) – H2H and prediction
